Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

dwg71 · #461 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:13 am

deltadog03 wrote:the sat is back up...looks much better IMO....its starting to get the buzz saw look again...

Dog, what do you see as far as heading since black out?

#462 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:15 am

maybe a hair north of due west...around 275 maybe...give me a couple more frames and i can tell ya better..

oneness · #463 Postby **oneness** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:16 am

Old IR image:

New IR image

PTrackerLA · #464 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:18 am

One things for sure, she is quite a bit smaller than Katrina, which is a positive. She's right at 25N right now as well.

oneness · #465 Postby **oneness** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:21 am

Suspect the higher forward speed has impeded growth in area somewhat(?).

superfly · #466 Postby **superfly** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:34 am

Tops are warmer, CDO smaller in size.

NorthGaWeather · #467 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:38 am

superfly wrote:Tops are warmer, CDO smaller in size.

Still 898mb amazing.

superfly · #468 Postby **superfly** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:41 am

Concentric eyewalls are forming. Double wind maxima in last recon pass. That is the likely reason for the more ragged presentation of Rita. Bad news is that she will have plenty of time to re-strengthen before landfall.

#469 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:06 am

well, she is getting much better looking on sat.....she was shaped like an oval first sat pic back...now almost perfectly symmetrical again...CDO is expanding again

oneness · #470 Postby **oneness** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:07 am

When you have to open it in Paintshop to see where Galveston is under all that convergent spageti ...

"... Houston ... we have a problem ..."

dwg71 · #471 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:07 am

deltadog03 wrote:well, she is getting much better looking on sat.....she was shaped like an oval first sat pic back...now almost perfectly symmetrical again...CDO is expanding again

Agreed and think that is evidence its not being squashed by a strong ridge on any side.

#472 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:10 am

yeah, the ridge is still clearly there...its weaking..but, remember how the 00z gfs and the 00zukmet went NW at the begining...well its not...so busted...but, its moving around 285 maybe

jpigott · #473 Postby **jpigott** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:17 am

NorthGaWeather wrote:
superfly wrote:Tops are warmer, CDO smaller in size.

Still 898mb amazing.

Rita has been 898 from early this evening, its too bad we didn't have any recon for much of the evening b/c its possible she bottomed out lower than 898

oneness · #474 Postby **oneness** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:19 am

BTW, much of that spagetti is also showing a stall and loop back over Texas border areas at some point.

oneness · #475 Postby **oneness** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:15 am

Lots of dry, or rather, drier air in the path.

coolwater · #476 Postby **coolwater** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:25 am

Die, Rita, die.

#477 Postby **Cookiely** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:30 am

Looking weaker by the minute. Die Rita.

huricanwatcher · #478 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:57 am

Cookiely wrote:Looking weaker by the minute. Die Rita.

where? i wish it would weaken but not seeing that

Scorpion · #479 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:20 am

Cookiely wrote:Looking weaker by the minute. Die Rita.

Oh yes its only 902 mb now storm cancel :roll:

. The dry air cannot get into the system unless theres a good amount of shear.

oneness · #480 Postby **oneness** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:32 am

It's much less convincing on the western side, on IR. It was equally strong (and also a much larger core) all around, several hours back. It's still a 902 cat 5 but I think its going to become a 4 soon if that trend continues. The NHC said therr would be fluctuations in the next 24 hrs and it seems this is one of them.

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