Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Dr Dvortex · #461 Postby **Dr Dvortex** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:29 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:wilma is looking better tonight wow

Yes she is!!!!!! what a fine specimen of cyclogenesis

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #462 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:31 pm

She is very good looking in compact tropical cyclone. Lets see how fast she can bomb. In lets see if she can show her sisters Katrina in Rita who's the boss!

#463 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:31 pm

I am very, very concerned about the Keys with this one.

fasterdisaster · #464 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:32 pm

jschlitz wrote:I am very, very concerned about the Keys with this one.

Yes, even if it hits the mainland as a 3 it could hit the keys as a 4.

#465 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:33 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:She is very good looking in compact tropical cyclone. Lets see how fast she can bomb. In lets see if she can show her sisters Katrina in Rita who's the boss!

i think she will.

fasterdisaster · #466 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:34 pm

Wow! If this hits Naples there isn't a lot of shear really, only some yellow-green on the map.

#467 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:34 pm

if recent convection continues....

Website · #468 Postby **Brent** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:35 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:Wow! If this hits Naples there isn't a lot of shear really, only some yellow-green on the map.

There will be when that trough arrives.

#469 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:37 pm

984 MB wow!!!!

#470 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:40 pm

alot of people seem so sure tonight it is crossing S. Florida since the models have been trending this way tonight. Just last night they were pushing it into the Yucatan remember? I wouldn't jump on the S. Florida bandwagon just yet. It could easily come in as far north as Appalachola depending upon the timing of the various players on this one.

#471 Postby **fci** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:44 pm

boca_chris wrote:alot of people seem so sure tonight it is crossing S. Florida since the models have been trending this way tonight. Just last night they were pushing it into the Yucatan remember? I wouldn't jump on the S. Florida bandwagon just yet. It could easily come in as far north as Appalachola depending upon the timing of the various players on this one.

Chris:
I think that the North track is history.
This may even miss the peninsula to the South.
It is a scary situation for the Keys and then maybe South Florida.
I would be very surprised to see the models trend back up to the north at all.
Just my opinion..

Now...... time to go to sleep, may be some more sleepless ones ahead :eek:

#472 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:49 pm

Chris:
I think that the North track is history.
This may even miss the peninsula to the South.
It is a scary situation for the Keys and then maybe South Florida.
I would be very surprised to see the models trend back up to the north at all.
Just my opinion..

Now...... time to go to sleep, may be some more sleepless ones ahead

Aquawind · #473 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:49 pm

Geesh the GFS really picks up the speed as it heads over Florida..

OZ Loop http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Paul

HomesteadHoney · #474 Postby **HomesteadHoney** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:58 pm

My first ever post!! I did not send Wilma an invitation to my childrens Halloween party this Saturday night. She would not have the nerve to show up univited. Wilma will have to find somewhere else to play this weekend. Homestead is out of the question. Afterall, we cannot get hit hard by both the first in the alphabet (Andrew in 92) and the last in the alphabet!

artist · #475 Postby **artist** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:01 am

welcome HomesteadHoney! What a way to have to meet, huh???
:eek:

Sanibel · #476 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:20 am

This one is starting to scare me.

It is banding that entire tropical wave area to its east now.

That can only mean one thing...

#477 Postby **ericinmia** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:36 am

Its starting to get me nervous seeing the 0z UKMET going through the northern keys.... It also is showing the same high speed the gfs is.

and the gfs, and others are already close to that scenario.
I hate when you start to fall inside the model guidance.
-Eric

calculatedrisk · #478 Postby **calculatedrisk** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:44 am

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.6 80.0 360./ .0
6 16.1 80.3 323./ 5.8
12 16.5 80.9 309./ 6.9
18 17.0 81.5 310./ 7.7
24 17.7 82.2 313./10.1
30 18.0 83.4 281./11.7
36 18.7 84.0 322./ 9.1
42 18.7 84.8 272./ 7.4
48 19.0 85.2 310./ 5.0
54 19.4 85.7 308./ 5.9
60 20.0 85.9 334./ 6.1
66 20.7 86.3 332./ 8.2
72 21.4 86.4 351./ 6.6
78 21.9 86.5 356./ 5.5
84 22.6 86.4 7./ 6.8
90 23.1 86.1 28./ 6.1
96 23.7 85.6 40./ 6.8
102 24.2 85.0 49./ 7.5
108 24.8 84.0 62./10.8
114 25.7 82.3 60./18.2
120 27.1 80.1 58./24.0
126 28.8 77.4 58./29.5

South Florida near Cape Coral

Website · #479 Postby **Brent** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:45 am

Geez... moving nearly 25 mph when it hits Florida! :eek:

#480 Postby **ericinmia** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:48 am

Brent wrote:Geez... moving nearly 25 mph when it hits Florida!

At that rate it won't matter too much where in the state you live, especially if it crosses in the everglades, or keys... and skirts miami-dade.

It will loose little to nothing due to crossing the state... shear on the other hand may lend a hand at weakening it.

Time to check the weather station and its footings...

-Eric

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