INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[tracyswfla]

I was seriously asking that question.

[Aric Dunn]

Good afternnon...

Nothing to worry about as far as tropical cyclones as conditions are not favorable for development and thankfully 92L as i expected will amount to just a big rain maker for florida.

Are you a Meteorologist?

dont think so...


jumping to conclusions. without checking .... all data.. is not the way to do things.. there have plenty of sheared TC before i like to use this example because it fits so well and is so similar.. ALBERTO LAST YEAR

Just a point--the origins of Alberto were different than what we are looking at now. Alberto started because of a tropical wave interacting with an area of disturbed weather and then moved north into an area of shear.

With 92l, the origins are different...the short wave that swung through and associated upper patterns kicked off the divergence that started this whole thing off.

So while I agree that the NHC could choose to classify it as Something (who knows what), I think that its origins as a baroclinic low are different than what Alberto's were and it's worth considering when comparing to Alberto.

My two cents.

agreed.. the orgins are.. different.. the classifications.. the same.. if the system is warm core system .. they are the same no matter there orgins...

[Aric Dunn]

I was seriously asking that question.

huh?

[windstorm99]

92L looks hybrid to me and also lopsided overall it should be extratropical or more baroclinic after it makes landfall in somewere in florida.

[tracyswfla]

I was seriously asking that question.

huh?

If that poster was a meterologist.

[Janie2006]

I still think 92L has a very narrow window of opportunity. It doesn't have a lot of time to get its act together. At least it will be a good rainmaker.

[caneman]

Looks like it is intensifying to me. ON NASA Visible is looks close to being closed off. Shoud get named and minimal Sub-Tropical or TS at landfall.

[Aquawind]

We are getting an awesome nice rain today.. nothing to heavy but a soaker. I like Low Pressure cold or warm core..lol

[windstorm99]

Keywest radar covered in rainfall...This is great news for the lake but more like 2 dozen of these events are needed before the sitituation improves there.

Temp here at 72 degrees.

[wjs3]

agreed.. the orgins are.. different.. the classifications.. the same.. if the system is warm core system .. they are the same no matter there orgins...

We agree completely in principle. If it looks like a duck, etc. etc.

Practically speaking, though, don't you see that lows with non-tropical origins take more time to get some sort of tropical or sub-tropical label (if they ever get one) than those with tropical origins?

For that reason, I wouldn't be surprised to see a non-classification...see what I'm saying?

WJS3

[Aric Dunn]

92L looks hybrid to me and also lopsided overall it should be extratropical or more baroclinic after it makes landfall in somewere in florida.

you cant say something like that becuase it does not make sense... they classify systems by the nature of (in general) there core ,warm, cold, hybird, and so on...
if the system has a warm core .. it is warm core till it transitions... so if recon goes out and finds it warmer the closer they get to the center and higher dew points ( again this is all in general no details) then its warm core.... if there is flat temp field then it maybe a sub trop and son .. again there i a lot more to it . but thats the general idea so if there is shear or it "LOOKS" like non tropical .. does not mean anything without the data to back it up

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow, that is one really nice shield of rain over FL right now ( http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no ). You guys really needed this! Hopefully this will drop a good amount of liquid and ease the fire worries for awhile.

[x-y-no]

We are getting an awesome nice rain today.. nothing to heavy but a soaker. I like Low Pressure cold or warm core..lol

Yeah, this kind of continuous light rain is far better for soaking in to the ground. Looks like we'll be getting heavy rains later tonight, though, judging by what's passing over Cuba now.

[windstorm99]

92L looks hybrid to me and also lopsided overall it should be extratropical or more baroclinic after it makes landfall in somewere in florida.

you cant say something like that becuase it does not make sense... they classify systems by the nature of (in general) there core ,warm, cold, hybird, and so on...
if the system has a warm core .. it is warm core till it transitions... so if recon goes out and finds it warmer the closer they get to the center and higher dew points ( again this is all in general no details) then its warm core.... if there is flat temp field then it maybe a sub trop and son .. again there i a lot more to it . but thats the general idea so if there is shear or it "LOOKS" like non tropical .. does not mean anything without the data to back it up

Aric no matter what the impacts will be the same over florida.Iam just happy were getting rain and hopefully places up north with get some as the mess moves to the north.

[seaswing]

needs to be heading north though. I do hear that our rain should start tonight and most of the day tomorrow, possible tornadic winds as well. Good night for sitting on the front porch watching it rain!

From NWS- Jacksonville

..HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY
AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA OR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH A LOW THREAT OF TORNADOES. INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND SOME
BEACH EROSION WITH A HEIGHTENED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

[HeatherAKC]

What kind of idiot leaves the house on a day like today without an umbrella?

ME!

It's just that I didn't believe it would rain! It is, however, glorious!

*Stuck at the office, no lunch.* =(

[Aquawind]

We are getting an awesome nice rain today.. nothing to heavy but a soaker. I like Low Pressure cold or warm core..lol

Yeah, this kind of continuous light rain is far better for soaking in to the ground. Looks like we'll be getting heavy rains later tonight, though, judging by what's passing over Cuba now.

It's awesome.. We will take the heavy stuff as well. It will take more than a light rain to fill the big Lake and break this drought..

[Aric Dunn]

agreed.. the orgins are.. different.. the classifications.. the same.. if the system is warm core system .. they are the same no matter there orgins...

We agree completely in principle. If it looks like a duck, etc. etc.

Practically speaking, though, don't you see that lows with non-tropical origins take more time to get some sort of tropical or sub-tropical label (if they ever get one) than those with tropical origins?

For that reason, I wouldn't be surprised to see a non-classification...see what I'm saying?

WJS3

i agree .. if its transitioning from a extra tropical low to a tropical system, .. but 92l was for the most part just a surface trof that has been sitting the western carib for over a week now.. and again its dependent on the core..

and im not arguing that its going to be tropical or sub tropical .. or hybird .. im just trying to let you all know how and why.. and its not all satellite presentation

[WeatherEmperor]

What kind of idiot leaves the house on a day like today without an umbrella?

ME!

It's just that I didn't believe it would rain! It is, however, glorious!

*Stuck at the office, no lunch.* =(

come on Heather. Need to visit Talkin Tropics more often to get the latest info. lol

<RICKY>

[Aric Dunn]

here although this is for a TCFA it has some good criteria to always keep in mind

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/ ... cklist.htm

and this is all you will need to make at least half way decent judgments of formation

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap3/s ... 3_contents