Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[Weatherfreak000]

Strong SST'S in the GOM make me feel late season El Nino. I say by Late Sept/Early Oct which might not be soon enough to say the Gulf Coast from nasty canes. Time will tell.

[srainhoutx]

Strong SST'S in the GOM make me feel late season El Nino. I say by Late Sept/Early Oct which might not be soon enough to say the Gulf Coast from nasty canes. Time will tell.

Past history suggests Spring may not be the best 'predictor' of the ENSO state in summer. Time will tell...

[Weatherfreak000]

Totally right, I mean other posters here have drawn together pretty clear conclusions that the SST's in general look very similar to the recent seasons 2005 and 2008, which would be quite an issue for us. But then again, haven't we heard that story before..like...almost every year since 2005?

I'm not on the bandwagon for that this year, the pattern is definitely been drawing us towards a potential El Nino event IMHO, if your following the anomaly trends that is. As usual it is gonna come down to an issue of timing as tends to be the case.

[wxman57]

Anomaly trends for the analog years all point to no El Nino, as indicated in the graphic I made below. I don't think we'll see an El Nino this season.

[Ivanhater]

Look how much warmer the Gulf is this year compared to 2009 and 2010...Wow

April 11

2009



2010



2011

[tailgater]

Yeah and not just the GOM look at the NWern Caribbean

[Ivanhater]

Gulf if really above normal, especially the Northern Gulf coast.

April 22 2011



April 22 2010

[cycloneye]

The Caribbean TCHP is warming fast.

[Migle]

For the early part of the season, even with the extremely warm water temps., we saw last year how it doesn't matter one bit how warm the water is if the system has to battle sheer.

[NDG]

Watch those SSTs rise in the Caribbean and Atlantic's MDR during the next week or so as the NAO is going negative through that time.

[cycloneye]

The loop current looks strong and it may create an eddy.Let's see in the comming days if that occurs.

[Ivanhater]

Gulf skyrocketed recently

[MGC]

Just in time for June 1st......MGC

[drezee]

2005 and 2011 SSTs are uncanningly similar...

Also, the GOM is cooking compared to averages. Typically when you have the MDR above average, the GOM is below at this time of the year. This year is an exception.

It is still holding...Positive Anomalies in the MDR and GOM...

[CourierPR]

Just in time for June 1st......MGC

......or sooner.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I don't think we'll see anything of significance early. At least not until we see a huge reduction in shear values across the basin.
However, I wouldn't be surprised to see something try to spin up right off the western gulf coast though and make its way back into TX/LA like we often see early when a piece of tail energy gets left behind from a passing front.

[CourierPR]

I don't think we'll see anything of significance early. At least not until we see a huge reduction in shear values across the basin.
However, I wouldn't be surprised to see something try to spin up right off the western gulf coast though and make its way back into TX/LA like we often see early when a piece of tail energy gets left behind from a passing front.

Joe Bastardi is calling for possible development in the Caribbean at end of May, coinciding with the MJO. He did not mention shear values.

[Ivanhater]

I don't think we'll see anything of significance early. At least not until we see a huge reduction in shear values across the basin.
However, I wouldn't be surprised to see something try to spin up right off the western gulf coast though and make its way back into TX/LA like we often see early when a piece of tail energy gets left behind from a passing front.

Joe Bastardi is calling for possible development in the Caribbean at end of May, coinciding with the MJO. He did not mention shear values.

There are signs of lowering pressures in the Western Caribbean at the end of May.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hopefully the shear will let up so that something can get going and maintain itself. otherwise, we'll simply be blob watching a disturbed area. -which we always do in May! -with gusto!

[ROCK]

wind shear is pretty nasty out there now. Nothing will stack with this

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

but we are getting closer as the MDR is heating up...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL