Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure covers the central and southwestern
Caribbean Sea, and portions of Central America. Showers and
thunderstorms remain disorganized, however, some slow development
within this broad circulation is possible this weekend and early
next week as it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS has several members as TD or TS near or on FL E coast 10/11-13 fwiw

[northjaxpro]

NHC still keeps development probs at 30% for next 5 days.

[SFLcane]

It actually looks like this might develop in the eastern pacific. Its all speculation at this point

[chris_fit]

Looks like the 12Z Euro is very similar to the 12z CMC in regards to track through 72 hours. CMC is much stronger than the Euro though.

[OuterBanker]

CMC is the lone wolf with a LA/Tx hit.

lol, and it still has Leslie hanging around.

Looks like Leslie will be fitted for a Halloween costume.

[CyclonicFury]

While I would say chances of development appear to be deceasing on model runs, you have to remember the potential time for genesis is still 3-4 days away. It is too soon to write this system off (and the rest of the season, it's only early October) at this time.

[wxman57]

I trust the Canadian model about 1/10th as far as I can throw it. The disturbance is looking less impressive today, and models are less bullish on any development. Something to keep an eye on, but not something to worry too much about yet.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro

crickets

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro

crickets

lol just be patient. because models have never flipped back and forth before

[stormlover2013]

one thing i notice from the Euro that ridge is strong for OCT in the se, looks strong till next thursday.

[LarryWx]

one thing i notice from the Euro that ridge is strong for OCT in the se, looks strong till next thursday.

The atmosphere over and SSTs near the SE US are and will continue to be much more typical of August than October. What an anomalous pattern!

Euro not doing much near FL 10/10-13 but there continues to be good moisture flowing off the Atlantic below the anomalous upper high. Still going to watch this area for this period.

[stormlover2013]

one thing i notice from the Euro that ridge is strong for OCT in the se, looks strong till next thursday.

The atmosphere over and SSTs near the SE US are and will continue to be much more typical of August than October. What an anomalous pattern!

no doubt about that

[stormlover2013]

this is why i always tell me to not trust a model past 5 days....this is what you get right here lol

[gatorcane]

Strong signal from the GEPS in just 78 hours:

[stormlover2013]

Euro ensembles will shift west.... we should know in about hour

[CourierPR]

Euro ensembles will shift west.... we should know in about hour

What are you basing that on?

[stormlover2013]

Euro ensembles will shift west.... we should know in about hour

What are you basing that on?

The strong ridge that the EURO is showing, CMC, GFS, all show it also

[CourierPR]

Euro ensembles will shift west.... we should know in about hour

What are you basing that on?

The strong ridge that the EURO is showing, CMC, GFS, all show it also

I believe I saw some models showing a cold front entering the picture in roughly 10 days. Any west shift may be temporary and it always helps to have a developing system that the models can track.

[cycloneye]

It actually looks like this might develop in the eastern pacific. Its all speculation at this point

NHC mentions that in EPAC TWO.

The western portion of the broad area of low pressure over the
western Caribbean Sea and Central America extends into the extreme
eastern North Pacific. Some slow development of this system is
possible this weekend and early next week while it drifts
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.