2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[LarryWx]

Here’s a post I made elsewhere on 9/13/24:

9/12/24 Euro Weeklies mean ACE progs (% of climo for the week) (Euro climo based on 2004-23):

9/16-22: 6 (40%)(has been BN)

9/23-29: 14 (110%)(has been NN)

9/30-10/6: 16 (170%)(has been AN)(16 is climo of peak week of 9/9-15)

10/7-13: 10 (140%)(has been AN)

- So, the week of 9/30-10/6 is forecasted by the current Weeklies to be the busiest in terms of ACE. This run is essentially predicting peak climo ACE 3 weeks late despite 9/30-10/6 climo already being down 40% from its peak!

- As the above shows along with prior runs, the Weeklies have been consistent with a BN late Aug through mid Sept, a NN late Sept, and AN 1st 2 weeks of Oct. So, these signals are rather strong.

- This is the 4th run in a row having 9/30-10/6 the busiest week.

- So, this run is predicting ACE to be ~107 as of Oct 13th. (I added a point for 9/13-5 though there may be none.)

[WeatherBoy2000]

Though 8/4-10 dropped due to no support likely partially related to little support for the current MDR AEW, the Euro Weeklies are slightly more ominous than yesterday’s for August’s ACE as a whole:

% of 2005-24 averages:
8/4-10: 80% (slightly lower than yest.)
8/11-17: 190% (slightly higher than yest.)
8/18-24: 210% (much higher than yest.)
8/25-31: 110% (same as yest)

Taken as a whole, these probably imply a prog of ~38 ACE for next month fwiw. Please don’t shoot the innocent messenger!

Not trying to shoot the messenger lol but do keep in mind these really did not do well last year. The drop inside 2 weeks but high values outside of it is a red flag. Wouldn't be surprised if next time this week we see the 8/11-17 come down too

I hope so! But unfortunately my clear recollection of last year (also I saved some of those EW progs in addition to looking back at 2024 posts) was that when the Euro Weeklies locked in either active or inactive vs climo from several weeks out that those weeks did quite well.

For example, it had many, many days in a row of active weeks forecasted for mid to late June of ‘24, which verified well. It then forecasted from several weeks out the 3 week long peak season lull accurately with well under 100% of normal on run after run after run.

Subsequently, it was spot on with consistently forecasting the near record high ACE of the 3 week long period of late Sept through mid Oct, which included some insanely high %s of normal ACE for early to middle Oct. Remember those very tall green boxes going so high that they literally went off the chart?

So, if these active mid to late Aug weeks were to maintain themselves for, say, over the next week, I’ll probably then be starting to take them seriously.

Yeah all models and forecasters failed to predict what happened during the peak the last year, it was a complete anomaly. Even if we don't see a super active peak, seeing something to the extent of 2024 again with an -enso/above normal mdr ssts is very unlikely.

[LarryWx]

Here’s a 9/3/24 post I made about the Euro Weeklies:

Today’s Euro Weeklies added a new week, Sep 30-Oct 6, and that week is quite active vs climo. In addition the week before is also progged to be active as has been the case on many runs.

So this run suggests that activity will pick up markedly next week though would still be below avg. After a similar subsequent week, activity is suggested to pick up substantially in late Sep and continue into early Oct vs climo:

9/3/24 Euro Weeklies (EW) mean ACE projections as % of climo:
9/2-8: 20% per yest.’s run (meaning ACE of 3)
9/9-15: 60% (meaning ACE of 10)(climo peak week)
9/16-22: 70% (meaning ACE of 11)
9/23-29: 130% (meaning ACE of 17)(vs peak wk climo of 16)
9/30-10/6: 140% (new week)(meaning ACE of 13)

So, today’s EW progs by week are 3-10-11-17-13 meaning two most active weeks are at the end despite climo having dropped off substantially from peak by then. That would get 2024 to ~110 ACE as of Oct 6.
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Here’s a 8/26/24 EW related post from me:

Euro Weeklies are still not giving in to more active. Sunday’s had member mean of 27 ACE for the next 4 weeks vs 1991-2020 avg of 58. If relative quiet were to verify, they’d deserve major kudos for being so persistent. Regardless, they’re still calling for some activity and not anywhere near dead.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1950934224367976808

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1951307307523944664