2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LAF92]

The LRC forecast a threat to the central gulf coast for mid to late August. That would line up with the EPS lighting up like they are doing

[TomballEd]

Maybe a Gulf Central/E Gulf threat. GFS doesn't develop a weak wave the crossed Florida in a week (but it tries) but a couple of the GFS ensembles close off weak surface lows. One 0Z CMC ensemble keeps it E of Florida, posing a day 10 hurricane threat to the Carolinas.

I still think Dexter develops off the semi-permanent trough off ECUSA and moves out to sea. But prior post, ensembles starting to show signs of life in 15 days, which would be around when Euro weeklies start looking interesting.

[LarryWx]

August ACE forecast: Today’s Euro Weeklies vs yesterday’s (using 2005-24 base)

8/4-10: 0.9 vs 0.8
8/11-17: 1.5 vs 1.9
8/18-24: 1.6 vs 2.1
8/25-31: 1.2 vs 1.1

Overall, I’d call this slightly less active than yesterday’s run but still a good bit more active than 2005-24 average ACE for August as a whole.

[TomballEd]

Dexter could be a week away. GFS, CMC and Euro and many ensembles see something trying to form on the trough close to the SEUSA, UK Met focuses on the vorticity along the trough further to the NE around 36N, 64W. None look to get strong and as such a TC is not certain, let alone a named storm. Further SW from where the models are looking, along the almost linear trough, there is enhanced vorticity over Louisiana, not favored by the models, land proximity/being inland probably why.

But it is the most likely system, if there will be one, in the next ten days.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like there's at least some consensus between the GEFS and the EPS ensembles that we might potentially get something that forms in the MDR late next week and travels westward. Quite a few members target the Carolinas upon recurvature.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS more bullish on Carolinas area.

[LarryWx]

For the first time this season, the latest UKMET (12Z) has a TC in the MDR (moving WNW):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.3N 40.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2025 120 10.3N 40.8W 1013 25
0000UTC 07.08.2025 132 11.4N 42.4W 1012 25
1200UTC 07.08.2025 144 13.0N 44.1W 1012 26
0000UTC 08.08.2025 156 14.8N 46.7W 1012 28
1200UTC 08.08.2025 168 16.1N 50.7W 1011 27

[Stratton23]

12z Euro has a system in the gulf and a MDR system, a sign that models maybe starting to see the flip to a more active period in the atlantic basin

[LarryWx]

12z Euro has a system in the gulf and a MDR system, a sign that models maybe starting to see the flip to a more active period in the atlantic basin

Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas. It could easily look very different as early as tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Long range 12z Euro has MDR storm.

[StormWeather]

12Z EURO-AI has a recurving 974 mb hurricane by August 16th.

[TomballEd]

GFS tries but fails in developing a weak wave that approaches Florida from the ESE and moves into the Gulf.

Closest to MBY but only one ensemble member develops it. The non-tropical development off the East Coast has a lot of support but most are out to sea. Or I am paying more attention to the somewhat lesser supported and further out in time MDR systems. The 0Z Euro ensemble of a storm that looks to safely recurve but is a major at 240 hours would be perfect for fans of a WxNerds or TT satellite image.

[cycloneye]

GFS tries but fails in developing a weak wave that approaches Florida from the ESE and moves into the Gulf.

Closest to MBY but only one ensemble member develops it. The non-tropical development off the East Coast has a lot of support but most are out to sea. Or I am paying more attention to the somewhat lesser supported and further out in time MDR systems. The 0Z Euro ensemble of a storm that looks to safely recurve but is a major at 240 hours would be perfect for fans of a WxNerds or TT satellite image.

https://i.imgur.com/5whDmAT.png

Sounds fabulous to track that biggie, but on the other hand, there are three ones at my neighborhood.

[LarryWx]

12z Euro has a system in the gulf and a MDR system, a sign that models maybe starting to see the flip to a more active period in the atlantic basin

Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas. It could easily look very different as early as tomorrow.

Followup for same AEW: 12Z EPS is somewhat ominous/more active for the Bahamas/CONUS during Aug 12-16. *Potential* mid August threat from NE Caribbean to CONUS as it appears now.

*Edit w/correction: I’m counting 50% of 12Z EPS members with a TC from this AEW. That’s quite high for the often rather conservative EPS.

In addition, there are 5 TC members from the followup AEW threatening the NE Caribbean to Bahamas.

[Stratton23]

I know its long range, but man the EPS/ Aifs ensembles really go off in the 2nd week of august, thats about as strong of a signal for activity to pick up as it gets

[TomballEd]

12z Euro has a system in the gulf and a MDR system, a sign that models maybe starting to see the flip to a more active period in the atlantic basin

Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas. It could easily look very different as early as tomorrow.

Followup for same AEW: 12Z EPS is somewhat ominous/more active for the Bahamas/CONUS during Aug 12-16. *Potential* mid August threat from NE Caribbean to CONUS as it appears now.

*Edit w/correction: I’m counting 50% of 12Z EPS members with a TC from this AEW. That’s quite high for the often rather conservative EPS.

In addition, there are 5 TC members from the followup AEW threatening the NE Caribbean to Bahamas.

Ominous as well is ensemble mean heights (from Weathernerds) suggest W or WNW movement of those possible TCs putting Florida and then the Eastern Gulf at risk. I'm assuming there will be a fair number of Florida landfalls around hour 300. People w/ PPV wx models can confirm or correct me on that.

[LarryWx]

Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas. It could easily look very different as early as tomorrow.

Followup for same AEW: 12Z EPS is somewhat ominous/more active for the Bahamas/CONUS during Aug 12-16. *Potential* mid August threat from NE Caribbean to CONUS as it appears now.

*Edit w/correction: I’m counting 50% of 12Z EPS members with a TC from this AEW. That’s quite high for the often rather conservative EPS.

In addition, there are 5 TC members from the followup AEW threatening the NE Caribbean to Bahamas.

Ominous as well is ensemble mean heights (from Weathernerds) suggest W or WNW movement of those possible TCs putting Florida and then the Eastern Gulf at risk. I'm assuming there will be a fair number of Florida landfalls around hour 300. People w/ PPV wx models can confirm or correct me on that.

12Z EPS has 8 Conus landfalls during 8/12-15 from the 1st of the 2 MDR AEWs, the one I’ve been following the most. Three of those 8 hit FL, 3 hit Carolinas, and 3 hit AL/MS/LA area including one of the FL ones.

In addition an earlier (8/9) Gulf TCG leads to a TS hit on FL Panhandle and an 8/15 MH hit on Houston.

Aside: the new Euro Weeklies are notably active again for mid to late August.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

We'll see if the EPS is being overzealous again or if it's actually on to something this time. One thing this wave will have in its favor as opposed to the prior one is favorable MJO. We'll see if anything could come of it in the face of the stable intraseasonal background state