ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[CaliforniaResident]

Personally speaking, I don't think El Nino will be cancelled per se but rather, it'll be one that's weak or moderate.

I had a feeling that something like this was going to happen, even back in April when everyone was calling for a Super El Nino. People have a habit of getting mixed up in all the excitement that they lose sight of other possibilities.

With the recent developments with the seemingly sudden drastic warming in the past few days and a possible new Kelvin Wave in July, I'm learning more towards the high end of moderate rather than weak to moderate. It won't be a 1997-1998 but it won't be a slouch either. Maybe something stronger than 2009-2010 but weaker than 1982-1983 and definitely not a Modoki.


Here are my revised predictions for the odds of the following as of June 23, 2014

Super El Nino: 2 percent
Strong El Nino: 15 percent
Moderate El Nino: 50 percent
Weak El Nino: 20 percent
Neutral Conditions: 11 percent
La Nina: 2 percent

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CFSv2 forecast a bit warmer now, predicting a moderate-strength event.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The warming over Niño 1+2 & 3 was very impressive! I also saw it in the TAO graphic, which it currently indicates big warming over the eastern Pacific (east end of the graphic) and a little bit over the CPac. I guess this could be a steadier warming.

[cycloneye]

Wow,many things happened on the ENSO front in past few days as I was in NYC for a few days.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow,many things happened on the ENSO front in past few days as I was in NYC for a few days.

Some impressive eastern Pacific warming. This is just the start. The rest will happen when the next Kelvin Wave will arrive.

[tolakram]

So is the el nino cancelling canceled?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

So is the el nino cancelling canceled?

Yeah. We are seeing warming before the KW has even arrived!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The BOM currently analyzes Niño 3.4 to be at +0.55°C, which rounds of to +0.6°C!

[LarryWx]

The BOM currently analyzes Niño 3.4 to be at +0.55°C, which rounds of to +0.6°C!

Would you please provide a link to BOM? On what is that based? Is that a snapshot like Levi Cowan's, is it based on the last calendar week like NOAA's weeklies (+0.5), or is it based on something else? BOM's +0.55 for 3.4 is WAY cooler than Mr. Cowan's current +1.014 for 3.4:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[wxman57]

Would you please provide a link to BOM? On what is that based? Is that a snapshot like Levi Cowan's, is it based on the last calendar week like NOAA's weeklies (+0.5), or is it based on something else? BOM's +0.55 for 3.4 is WAY cooler than Mr. Cowan's current +1.014 for 3.4:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

They don't list when the Nino 3.4 value was last updated:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml?bookmark=nino3.4

[euro6208]

Here's an idea.

Why can't we have one global agency that monitors this kind of things?

It would of been nice if we had one to monitor weather and this enso stuff putting every resource we have into this one agency...

It would probrably save many life too.

Probrably wait for another thousand years for this...

[LarryWx]

Would you please provide a link to BOM? On what is that based? Is that a snapshot like Levi Cowan's, is it based on the last calendar week like NOAA's weeklies (+0.5), or is it based on something else? BOM's +0.55 for 3.4 is WAY cooler than Mr. Cowan's current +1.014 for 3.4:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

They don't list when the Nino 3.4 value was last updated:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml?bookmark=nino3.4

Wxman57,
Thanks for the link. So, BOM is weekly averaged like NOAA as opposed to a snapshot that is updated weekly. Also, although it looks based on my eyeballing like this last weekly update is the last calendar week (centered on 6/18) just like NOAA, it actually says "June 8". So, the BOM's +0.55 is definitely based on older data than Levi Cowan's current snapshot. So, just as is the case for NOAA, subsequent weekly readings will be more interesting as they would incorporate the supposed sharp warming of the last 4-5 days.

[LarryWx]

It doesn't get this wild very often for the SOI. From 6/9 to 6/12, the SOI rose ~59 points. The last time the SOI moved that much in just three days was a 67 point drop way back from 4/7 to 4/10 of 2002! The Euro runs of early June predicted this quite well. The accurate Euro is nothing new in general in this region as I've been following its performance on and off for a number of years now. That region of the world is highly predictable for the Euro op. and is in total contrast to other areas like the Arctic. Therefore, I'll continue to use it for future SOI predictions.

The SOI's in the low +30's of 6/12-13 are the highest since Jan. 15. However, the 0Z 6/13 Euro says that these last two days of low +30's will be the highest in the forseeable future. Nevertheless, there is still no a longlasting solid negative SOI streak being suggested through 6/24. This run is predicting the following: a drop to the +20's for 6/14 and then falling each day to somewhere within the -5 to -15 range 6/18. Next, a slow rise to the 0 to +10 range on ~6/20-1 is suggested, followed by a drop to the 0 to -10 range 6/22-4. That would leave the June month to date SOI averaging ~+3 then with only 6 days left in the month.


The 0Z 6/13 Euro ensemble mean still doesn't have any real suggestion of a sustained solid -SOI string through the end of the month.

The 0Z 6/13 Euro did quite well in predicting the daily SOI's through today as per the above. What's today's Euro saying for down the road? Small negative for 6/25 dropping to ~-teens 6/26-7, then rise to near -5 to +5 range 6/29, then drop to ~-20's 7/1, then rise to ~+teens 7/5. Afterward, the 0Z Euro ensemble mean suggests a +SOI period 7/6-10. So, in summary, it looks mostly negative through 7/3 but followed by mostly positive 7/4-10 due to lower Darwin pressures.

Based on these projections, June would end up near +1. July 1-10 would average positive despite the month starting negative.

[cycloneye]

The CPC Global Hazards section discussion for the next two weeks talks about the MJO proyections and how it may affect ENSO.

The Wheeler-Hendon RMM and CPC MJO indices both suggest a strengthening MJO signal during the past week, with the CPC Index indicating a slightly more robust signal then the RMM based index. The convectively enhanced phase is propagating over the Western Pacific according to both measures. Convection associated with the seasonal progression of the Meiyu front was noted over eastern china, while below-normal convection was observed over most of the Indian Ocean and Western North Pacific. Upper-level velocity potential anomalies depict a wave-1 structure, which projects strongly onto the MJO. There is considerable spread among dynamical MJO index model forecasts, with some models propagating the signal from the Pacific to the Americas and Africa by the end of Week-2 and others depicting strengthening convection over the Western Pacific, potentially related to the evolving ENSO state.

No tropical cyclones formed during the past week. Dynamical models including the GFS and CFS indicate conditions more favorable for tropical cyclone development over the eastern Pacific basin later in the Week-2 period.

During Week-1, enhanced convection associated with monsoonal flow is favored to continue over parts of Southeast Asia, although some measurements of wind speeds over the Horn of Africa indicate the potential for a relaxation in the South Asian Monsoon. Therefore, below-average rains are likely to continue across India. A consistent piece among the highly varied evolutions of the MJO presented by the models indicates that the suppressed phase of the MJO is likely to be centered over parts of the Maritime Continent. Enhanced rains are likely near the Date Line due to the ENSO state, while above average rains over Central America are likely linked to a Kelvin wave. Very strong vertical shear is likely to continue over the western Atlantic, inhibiting the development of tropical cyclones for anywhere but near the immediate southeast U.S. coast, where a couple of model solutions depict a weak circulation.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

[CaliforniaResident]

It doesn't get this wild very often for the SOI. From 6/9 to 6/12, the SOI rose ~59 points. The last time the SOI moved that much in just three days was a 67 point drop way back from 4/7 to 4/10 of 2002! The Euro runs of early June predicted this quite well. The accurate Euro is nothing new in general in this region as I've been following its performance on and off for a number of years now. That region of the world is highly predictable for the Euro op. and is in total contrast to other areas like the Arctic. Therefore, I'll continue to use it for future SOI predictions.

The SOI's in the low +30's of 6/12-13 are the highest since Jan. 15. However, the 0Z 6/13 Euro says that these last two days of low +30's will be the highest in the forseeable future. Nevertheless, there is still no a longlasting solid negative SOI streak being suggested through 6/24. This run is predicting the following: a drop to the +20's for 6/14 and then falling each day to somewhere within the -5 to -15 range 6/18. Next, a slow rise to the 0 to +10 range on ~6/20-1 is suggested, followed by a drop to the 0 to -10 range 6/22-4. That would leave the June month to date SOI averaging ~+3 then with only 6 days left in the month.


The 0Z 6/13 Euro ensemble mean still doesn't have any real suggestion of a sustained solid -SOI string through the end of the month.

The 0Z 6/13 Euro did quite well in predicting the daily SOI's through today as per the above. What's today's Euro saying for down the road? Small negative for 6/25 dropping to ~-teens 6/26-7, then rise to near -5 to +5 range 6/29, then drop to ~-20's 7/1, then rise to ~+teens 7/5. Afterward, the 0Z Euro ensemble mean suggests a +SOI period 7/6-10. So, in summary, it looks mostly negative through 7/3 but followed by mostly positive 7/4-10 due to lower Darwin pressures.

Based on these projections, June would end up near +1. July 1-10 would average positive despite the month starting negative.

When do you anticipate it staying negative for the long-term overall? When the new Kelvin Wave arrives?

[LarryWx]

It doesn't get this wild very often for the SOI. From 6/9 to 6/12, the SOI rose ~59 points. The last time the SOI moved that much in just three days was a 67 point drop way back from 4/7 to 4/10 of 2002! The Euro runs of early June predicted this quite well. The accurate Euro is nothing new in general in this region as I've been following its performance on and off for a number of years now. That region of the world is highly predictable for the Euro op. and is in total contrast to other areas like the Arctic. Therefore, I'll continue to use it for future SOI predictions.

The SOI's in the low +30's of 6/12-13 are the highest since Jan. 15. However, the 0Z 6/13 Euro says that these last two days of low +30's will be the highest in the forseeable future. Nevertheless, there is still no a longlasting solid negative SOI streak being suggested through 6/24. This run is predicting the following: a drop to the +20's for 6/14 and then falling each day to somewhere within the -5 to -15 range 6/18. Next, a slow rise to the 0 to +10 range on ~6/20-1 is suggested, followed by a drop to the 0 to -10 range 6/22-4. That would leave the June month to date SOI averaging ~+3 then with only 6 days left in the month.


The 0Z 6/13 Euro ensemble mean still doesn't have any real suggestion of a sustained solid -SOI string through the end of the month.

The 0Z 6/13 Euro did quite well in predicting the daily SOI's through today as per the above. What's today's Euro saying for down the road? Small negative for 6/25 dropping to ~-teens 6/26-7, then rise to near -5 to +5 range 6/29, then drop to ~-20's 7/1, then rise to ~+teens 7/5. Afterward, the 0Z Euro ensemble mean suggests a +SOI period 7/6-10. So, in summary, it looks mostly negative through 7/3 but followed by mostly positive 7/4-10 due to lower Darwin pressures.

Based on these projections, June would end up near +1. July 1-10 would average positive despite the month starting negative.

When do you anticipate it staying negative for the long-term overall? When the new Kelvin Wave arrives?

All I can say now is that it would be mid July at the very earliest.

[Kingarabian]

CDAS so far continues to hold steady at +1.025.

Does it need to maintain this reading until this Thursday for a chance that next weeks update may reflect its values?

Or all the way up until Sunday?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What I have noticed is that instead of going downhill, we are currently heading towards the opposite direction. Niño 1+2 has its highest reading so far since 1998. Niño 3 is now at moderate threshold. Niño 3.4 and 4 are warming and cooling, respectively, at barely weak Niño threshold. Also, very warm PDO years tend to have moderate to strong events.

[cycloneye]

JB keeps harping.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi ·
When will TWC,Climate progress, other agw agenda sites reveal that Super Nino talk likely nonsense
SOI NOT coupling

[Ntxw]

I think we need to refrain from posting JB's ENSO tweets. It is usually politically driven and is not something we need here, unless he is providing data for forecasting reasons.