ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[LarryWx]

It still looks like -SOI's will dominate through the end of the month (although it should at least approach zero 6/29-30 before quickly dropping back). We should get some -20's into the mix, possibly including the next two days and ~7/1. The negatives should dominate through 7/3. However, it still looks like there will be a decided rise to positives and it looks to make it at least to the +10's 7/5-6 with a potential peak in the +20's or so around 7/9. It still looks like 7/1-10 will average positive despite the ~-20's on 7/1. Yesterday, I had projected near +1 for the final June monthly SOI. However, I'm now going with near 0 for June as a whole. Regardless, the bottom line is that there still is no longlasting solidly negative SOI on the horizon per the Euro at least. Instead, there looks to be a pretty even mix between negatives and positive between now and 7/10.

[Kingarabian]

Anyways, 3.4 continues to warm.

Does anyone have CDAS/OISST Nino 3.4 daily data for November 2012? Maybe we could compare with what happened then, and what's happening now.

[LarryWx]

Anyways, 3.4 continues to warm.

Does anyone have CDAS/OISST Nino 3.4 daily data for December 2012? Maybe we could compare with what happened then, and what's happening now.

I assume you mean Nov. 2012, when there was that apparently false warming on AVHRR (satellite measurement portion of OISST). Here are what the satellite based dailies were on Stormvista:

11/11: ~+0.6
11/12: +0.9
11/13: +1.0
11/14: +1.35
11/15: +1.5
11/16: +1.4
11/17: +1.3
11/18: +1.06

As one can see, these satellite based dailies in Nov. of 2012 turned downward about as fast as they had risen. This is in contrast to what is happening now per the Levi Cowan's graph, which has had 3.4 pretty steady just above +1.00 for over 5 days and counting. The calendar week of 11/11-17 averaged ~+1.15 per these dailies. However, NOAA reported that week at only +0.50 (after an initial delay in getting the number out on time) and said there was a bug in the satellite based data. The longer Levi's #'s stay near +1.00, the better chance that this sig. warming is for real imo.

[Kingarabian]

Anyways, 3.4 continues to warm.

Does anyone have CDAS/OISST Nino 3.4 daily data for December 2012? Maybe we could compare with what happened then, and what's happening now.

I assume you mean Nov. 2012, when there was that apparently false warming on AVHRR (satellite measurement portion of OISST). Here are what the satellite based dailies were on Stormvista:

11/11: ~+0.6
11/12: +0.9
11/13: +1.0
11/14: +1.35
11/15: +1.5
11/16: +1.4
11/17: +1.3
11/18: +1.06

As one can see, these satellite based dailies in Nov. of 2012 turned downward about as fast as they had risen. This is in contrast to what is happening now per the Levi Cowan's graph, which has had 3.4 pretty steady just above +1.00 for over 5 days and counting. The calendar week of 11/11-17 averaged ~+1.15 per these dailies. However, NOAA reported that week at only +0.50 (after an initial delay in getting the number out on time) and said there was a bug in the satellite based data. The longer Levi's #'s stay near +1.00, the better chance that this sig. warming is for real imo.

Thank you for your response and yes, I meant November!

This is exactly what I was thinking, the longer these numbers stay this high, the likelihood of them being false is less. Levi's page continues to show increasing numbers.

[cycloneye]

As eluded earlier,next Mondays CPC update will be very important as the recent big rise that began late last week will be reflected.

[Ntxw]

This is exactly what I was thinking, the longer these numbers stay this high, the likelihood of them being false is less. Levi's page continues to show increasing numbers.

That rise also mostly fixed within 3.4, a relatively small region compared to the entire basin as the other ENSO regions felt little of it, except maybe 4 I'm not sure. We seem to be doing it for the entire eastern basin east of the dateline. We'll find out on Monday, if it is true, it would be one of the bigger rises we have witnessed.

[Kingarabian]

As eluded earlier,next Mondays CPC update will be very important as the recent big rise that began late last week will be reflected.

Sure is.

You have the buoys readings saying warm-neutral @ Nino 3.4, and a positive SOI that backs that notion up....

And then you have satellite depictions showing moderate Nino 3.4 readings, backed by a record setting sub-surface pool, and a very warm/positive PDO.

[cycloneye]

SOI going down at a more steady pace than in the past few weeks.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Yellow Evan]

As eluded earlier,next Mondays CPC update will be very important as the recent big rise that began late last week will be reflected.

Sure is.

You have the buoys readings saying warm-neutral @ Nino 3.4, and a positive SOI that backs that notion up....

And then you have satellite depictions showing moderate Nino 3.4 readings, backed by a record setting sub-surface pool, and a very warm/positive PDO.

The answer IMO lies somewhere in between and we have weak El Nino conditions.

[Ntxw]

Been awhile since posted on the ENSO blogs from CPC. Here's the latest, some interesting stuff. What I particularly picked up was their definition of weak, moderate, and strong. Currently they favor moderate.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/de ... t/8443/all


"Definitions:
Weak El Niño: Episode when the peak Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is greater than or equal to 0.5°C and less than or equal to 0.9°C.

Moderate El Niño: Episode when the peak Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is greater than or equal to 1.0°C and less than or equal to 1.4°C.

Strong El Niño: Episode when the peak Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is greater than or equal to 1.5°C."



It doesn't mention duration so if you went by their definition 2009 would be considered a strong Nino going by peak ONI.

[CaliforniaResident]

As eluded earlier,next Mondays CPC update will be very important as the recent big rise that began late last week will be reflected.

Sure is.

You have the buoys readings saying warm-neutral @ Nino 3.4, and a positive SOI that backs that notion up....

And then you have satellite depictions showing moderate Nino 3.4 readings, backed by a record setting sub-surface pool, and a very warm/positive PDO.

The answer IMO lies somewhere in between and we have weak El Nino conditions.

I believe we are in moderate El Nino conditions based on the SST in regions 1+2 and 3. We certainly have warmer than normal SST here in Southern California right now. The reason it hasn't been declared yet is the duration. We need to sustain these conditions for the next 2 months for it to be declared. There also a new Kelvin wave developing that will reinforce the warming and possibly raise it to strong Nino thresholds in August or September. But that's a big "iff"; I am still going with a moderate El Nino but a real possibility of a strong one developing.

[Yellow Evan]

Sure is.

You have the buoys readings saying warm-neutral @ Nino 3.4, and a positive SOI that backs that notion up....

And then you have satellite depictions showing moderate Nino 3.4 readings, backed by a record setting sub-surface pool, and a very warm/positive PDO.

The answer IMO lies somewhere in between and we have weak El Nino conditions.

I believe we are in moderate El Nino conditions based on the SST in regions 1+2 and 3. We certainly have warmer than normal SST here in Southern California right now. The reason it hasn't been declared yet is the duration. We need to sustain these conditions for the next 2 months for it to be declared. There also a new Kelvin wave developing that will reinforce the warming and possibly raise it to strong Nino thresholds in August or September. But that's a big "iff"; I am still going with a moderate El Nino but a real possibility of a strong one developing.

In 2009, it was declared in early July. the reason IMO they have not pulled the trigger is due to +SOI.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive warming over the eastern portion of the TAO graphic, with +1.5°C anomalies popping up and are expanding. I guess this is a sign of the main warming underway. CFSv2 had been on a weaker event forecast well now because of more warming, the forecast is now close to strong.* ECMWF has it at strong. I guess the warming will happen fast at may lead to a low-end strong IMO.

*Note that this is only a forecast.

[LarryWx]

Per Mr. Cowan's 6z update for today (+0.924) as well as the last few updates overall, there has been a hint of a trend change from the steady prior six days or so to a drop. Let's see if this drop continues.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[NDG]

Personally I think that the CDAS tool has been erroneous all along, all other tools that I have looked at have not shown such a rise in such a short time and so warm of Nino 3.4 area.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Personally I think that the CDAS tool has been erroneous all along, all other tools that I have looked at have not shown such a rise in such a short time and so warm of Nino 3.4 area.

Well considering the only reliable tools we have for reading SST's are satellite and buoys, can you share those other tools you have with us?

The CDAS depiction were on par with the CPC's update last week. That's the only reason why we're giving it a shot.

[cycloneye]

And now what? Brief fall or something more?

[cycloneye]

Here is an interesting articule by the United Nations organization about when El Nino will begin. They say by October.

The "El Nino" phenomenon, which sparks climate extremes around the globe, is likely to take hold in the Pacific Ocean by the end of the year and could even do so within weeks, the UN said on Thursday.

There was an 80 per cent likelihood that El Nino could start between October and November and 60 per cent that it would do so between now and end of August, said the UN's weather agency, the World Meteorological Organisation.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology rates the chance of an El Nino forming by the southern sprint as a 70 per cent prospect.

The El Nino phenomenon - which can lead to extremes including droughts and heavy rainfall across the globe - occurs every two to seven years, when the prevailing trade winds that circulate over surface waters in the tropical Pacific start to weaken.



The phenomenon, which last occurred between June 2009 and May 2010, can play havoc for farmers and global agricultural markets.

It leaves countries like India, Indonesia and Australia drier, increasing chances of wildfires and lower crop production, while leading to heavier rainfall in the eastern Pacific and South American nations, raising the spectre of floods and landslides.

"El Nino leads to extreme events and has a pronounced warming effect," said WMO chief Michel Jarraud.

El Nino drags precipitation across the Pacific, leaving countries including India and Indonesia drier.

India's monsoon rains have already arrived five days later than normal, and the prospect of a weak rainy season has raised fears of lower crop production and rising food prices.

In Indonesia, there are concerns that dry conditions could fan wildfires caused by slash-and-burn techniques used to clear land quickly and cheaply.

Fires on Indonesia's western Sumatra island last June already caused the worst haze in southeast Asia for more than a decade, affecting daily life for millions and sparking a heated diplomatic row with neighbouring Singapore and Malaysia.

Australia also tends to be drier during an El Nino, increasing the risk of bushfires.

El Nino-year winters are generally drier in the north of the United States and Europe.

El Nino also causes heavier-than-normal rainfall in the eastern Pacific and South America - raising the spectre of floods and landslides, as well as shifting nutrient-rich ocean currents that lure fish.

In the past, that has battered local fishing industries and caused diplomatic battles over shifting fishing zones.

The southwest United States and southern Africa, meanwhile, tend to be drier, while east Africa faces heavy rainfall.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weath ... z35vdE9NMz

[LarryWx]

And now what? Brief fall or something more?

Luis/folks,
I'm estimating that this past calendar week averaged near +0.9 per the Cowan graphs/satellite. However, the TAO bouys that are still in service are suggesting that 3.4 is still only ~+0.5. Let's see what NOAA does Monday.

[Kingarabian]

I think they bump it up a tad bit to +0.6