ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

All Niño regions warmed in the TAO graphic, so expect the CPC weekly reading to be +0.6ºC or above.

[NDG]

And now what? Brief fall or something more?

Luis/folks,
I'm estimating that this past calendar week averaged near +0.9 per the Cowan graphs/satellite. However, the TAO bouys that are still in service are suggesting that 3.4 is still only ~+0.5. Let's see what NOAA does Monday.

If anything if this TAO image is correct, it looks to me that it would be brought back down to +0.4

[cycloneye]

Another El Nino cancel round?

[LarryWx]

Luis/folks,
The Cowan satellite based graph for 3.4 is back down to +.0755 as of 0Z today, which means it has lost about half of that sharp gain during just the last three days. Let's see if it stops falling before giving back most of the rest of that sharp gain:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[cycloneye]

Don't throw me dards as I only telling you what the data is showing All ENSO areas are going down on June 29. See them at first post.

[hurricanes1234]

I wish we could get some clear insight as to what's going on instead of this rollercoaster that is taking place . It hasn't been stable yet, just fluctuations, fluctuations and more fluctuations!

[hurricanetrack]

So, let me get this straight, it seems that most people here WANT there to be an El Nino. Is this correct? Sure seems like it with all of the confirmation bias going on

[hurricanetrack]

This animation clearly shows the subsurface temps dropping and no new warm pool coming in from the west Pac. Weak El Nino at best in my professional opinion.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... eq_anm.gif

[hurricanes1234]

So, let me get this straight, it seems that most people here WANT there to be an El Nino. Is this correct? Sure seems like it with all of the confirmation bias going on

Sorry I posted twice, my browser is moving slowly. I do think that some people want to know mainly what's happening, as it's a bit frustrating when it keeps going up and down like this. But that's just my opinion.

[cycloneye]

hurricanes1234,deleited one of the posts.

[Hammy]

The warm pool looks like its steady if not slightly larger at the very end.

[Ntxw]

So, let me get this straight, it seems that most people here WANT there to be an El Nino. Is this correct? Sure seems like it with all of the confirmation bias going on

I don't think there's confirmation biases going on here. Everyone is biased to something, over the years you will see that Atlantic basin folks don't like Nino's and look for negative signals for them and jump at the notion of cooling/Nina/Neutral, Pacific basin folks are the opposite. But overall the discussion here is pretty good at sticking to data so as long as there is stuff to back it up with things are fine.

Regardless, satellite data is showing rapidly weakening of the rise it has been showing. We'll find out where it is tomorrow from the CPC.

[JDawg512]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it typical during the early summer months for developing El Niño's to weaken then gain strength again towards Autumn?

There's a lot of analyzing over small details of a much much larger cycle. That's fine as it helps us gain more insight, but looking at the big picture as well as what we know from past El Niños, can anyone say for certain that this is typical for a developing El Niño, or is there something more going on?

[LarryWx]

And now what? Brief fall or something more?

Luis/folks,
I'm estimating that this past calendar week averaged near +0.9 per the Cowan graphs/satellite. However, the TAO bouys that are still in service are suggesting that 3.4 is still only ~+0.5. Let's see what NOAA does Monday.

It looks like the satellite based Cowan average for last week in 3.4, +0.9 C, was ignored and that NOAA went with the ~+0.5 of the TAO buoys...no change from last week. This is similar to what NOAA did in November of 2012. They're basically ignoring the satellite based warming of last week.

[Ntxw]

Yep, but even the buoys are still questionable as 0.5 is generous for it. What do they use between those two products when they don't work properly? It's truly sad at this day and age we can't properly track these things

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What are the latest readings? For some reason, I can't open the CPC website in my location.

[cycloneye]

What are the latest readings? For some reason, I can't open the CPC website in my location.

The text of the CPC weekly update will be released later this morning. I also can't open the link where the graphic is updated before the text comes out. Guess we will have to wait for the text.

[Ntxw]

What are the latest readings? For some reason, I can't open the CPC website in my location.

Everything remained the same except 1+2 fell back to +1.6C and 3 held steady. Those two matched the Satellite depictions, 4 unchanged. 3.4 stays at 0.5C

[cycloneye]

CPC text of weekly update of June 30. Nino 3.4 remains at +0.5C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[xtyphooncyclonex]

SOI is currently very negative, and the 30-day and monthly averages went down to negative.

SOI values for 01 Jul 2014
Average for last 30 days -2.4
Average for last 90 days 3.2
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -22.8
Monthly average SOI values
April 6.4
May 4.3
June -0.8