Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

I think saw one post by Derek about a thesis that if there is not strong shear but dry air and sal are present,systems can still develop as those dont penetrate the core of a low pressure without shear blowing.

So what does it mean for the system if i read correctly? He has low chances but chances to develop?

[KWT]

The thing is cycloneye it does seem like the SAL is right on the western edge of the circulation and I think this dulling down any convection that is trying to develop. I remember hearing Derek say that as wlel as the SAL outbreak is due to the easterly jet which means logically the two should go hand in hand I believe.

[gatorcane]

Here is why the NHC does not expect this system to develop. Looking at this wind shear map, I don't see how anything can develop across the entire Atlantic basin with those strong westerlies still present.

Wind shear should be increasing to 40K before not much longer over this wave. That should kill it:

[cycloneye]

Bingo Gustywind.You have to read Dereks thesis to then understand new things that we didnt know before.I dont know if Derek is going to post in public his thesis but you can PM him and ask him to send you one.Is very long but a very interesting read.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Looks very messy out there to be honest looking at that Vis.imagery there cycloneye, can laos see that larger area of convection edging up NW.

By the way whats up with that whiter cloud in the NW of picture?

[cycloneye]

By the way whats up with that whiter cloud in the NW of picture?

That was reflection of the sun in a lower angle on the higher clouds in that 12:15 UTC frame.Notice that the next frame at 12:45 UTC it does not show up meaning the sun angle is higher than earlier.

[Gustywind]

Here is why the NHC does not expect this system to develop. Looking at this wind shear map, I don't see how anything can develop across the entire Atlantic basin with those strong westerlies still present.

Wind shear should be increasing to 40K before not much longer over this wave. That should kill it:

Absolutely Gatorcane it's awfull, another hurddles of shear , but i said before in my lasts posts;that...if the wave wants to survives....it should travel very south to escape from these awesome westerlies , so i'm very doubtfull for an invest right now... Gatorcane
And note that shear tendency does not show much improvement but a seriously and increasing trend of the shear winds! beetween 40¨°w to 60w what a nigthmare down the road for the wave, difficult trip for sure..
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Meso]

Still not looking very good.Center is visible far N.W of the burst of convection..If it were slightly further South it would stand a better chance at missing the area of high shear.Question is could that burst of convection maybe make it's way to get wrapped around.But my guess is that environmental conditions wouldn't allow for convection to hold that long.The convection has been decreasing in intensity too,and any little small burst around the center dies within an hour or so.Maybe 10% on the wave,at least for next few days.

[Gustywind]

Bingo Gustywind.You have to read Dereks thesis to then understand new things that we didnt know before.I dont know if Derek is going to post in public his thesis but you can PM him and ask him to send you one.Is very long but a very interesting read.

Oh tkanks my friend glad to appreciate your intention, if i have time will read it

[Gustywind]

Still not looking very good.Center is visible far N.E of the burst of convection..If it were slightly further South it would stand a better chance at missing the area of high shear.Question is could that burst of convection maybe make it's way to get wrapped around.But my guess is that environmental conditions wouldn't allow for convection to hold that long.The convection has been decreasing in intensity too,and any little small burst around the center dies within an hour or so.Maybe 10% on the wave,at least for next few days.

Yeah meso i go with you... tkanks to the westerlies and the dry air surronding the wave, but no more dots for the moment, there's potential to monitor much more within the next 2 weeks, be patient my friends ( i knew you are lol)

[KWT]

Yeah I thought that was what it was cycloneye thanks.

I also agree with Meso I suspect the shear is just going to be too much for this wave once it reaches about 50W. That burst of convection has been inching its way NW however towards the circulation so may need to be watched but I don't expect anything to happen this early in the season out there.

[cycloneye]

Meso,any models showing this system doing anything in the future?

[Meso]

Not really cycloneye... The CMC has a little bump in the ridge..

CMC Image

The GFS shows hardly anything,and the other models don't show anything really either.So hardly any model support.Not even when it reaches the Caribbean

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Quickscat shows a very tight wave as of last night. Could easly be close by now, but with strong westly shear blowing everything to the east and south don't expect any development.

[Meso]

The good news for this system is that the blob of convection on the South East side is moving closer and closer and looking at the loops it should only be a matter of hours before it catches up with the center.

The bad news is that once it reaches the circulation it will likely collapse like the rest of the convection that tries to get going around the center.

But that blob is still holding somewhat,despite it's loss of intensity.Although there was a small burst of red on the infrared loop an hour or so ago

[CrazyC83]

It looks quite impressive but conditions are hostile (as expected in the deep tropics in June). 92L maybe, but I don't see much more than that.

[KWT]

Yeah I've been watching that blob because it has been heading slowly of to the NW towards the circulation over the past 12hrs and it looks like thats still occuring. If it can get closer to it then things become a little more interesting at least in the short term even if its long term prospects are for it to get sheared to hell.

[MGC]

Nice spin but many factors working against development. SAL, SST, Shear....the 3 S's.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive for June. Nice season ahead.