2014 EPAC Season

[Hurricane_Luis]

GFS developing a tropical cyclone in the central pacific then crosses it over to the WPAC...

There is a disturbance between 135W and 125W and another behind that crossing 110W.

[hurricanes1234]

In my opinion, that area could show up on the TWO if it maintains or improves its organisation. However, the latest run on the GFS isn't showing much from this, except a 1007 mbar low/depression.

[NDG]

There's not much model support and even the 1007mb forecasted low pressure is not much of a low pressure considering is in the deep tropics.
May have to wait until July for action to pick back up in the EPAC, too much sinking air motion in this part of the world right now.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: There's not much model support and even the 1007mb forecasted low pressure is not much of a low pressure considering is in the deep tropics.
May have to wait until July for action to pick back up in the EPAC, too much sinking air motion in this part of the world right now.

Is it an indication to MJO is coming back after vanished for six weeks? Granted I know it's not in the EPAC yet, but if that is case we know it will only be a matter of time before it gets there.

[NDG]

It has been weakening during the past few days but it could gain some strength as it enters the EPAC by early July, IMO, like it did back in late May. Don't pay attention to the UKMET, it is lost, lol.

[stormcruisin]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-vis.html



Looks to be puffin its chest up atm.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS was very aggressive with a system in the long range. 6z is less aggressive, but hey, we are seeing consistency. It's been in the rounds for 5 runs now. I will say that given it's northerly location, suggest a hurricane will be hard to come by for late June, but in July, SST's warm up a bit in time for its 1st peak. Still, given it is still early July, it may be difficult. However, given the MJO forecast, I think something around that time is still very possible.

[CrazyC83]

I agree the MJO will be huge for the EPAC.

Why is it that the EPAC has spawned monsters this year (especially considering the time of year) so far yet the rest of the world is struggling?

[Yellow Evan]

I agree the MJO will be huge for the EPAC.

Why is it that the EPAC has spawned monsters this year (especially considering the time of year) so far yet the rest of the world is struggling?

El nino favors EPAC and it peaks sooner than everyone else.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 95E is up. Could see Douglas out of this one.

[hurricanes1234]

Invest 95E could be soon succumbing to hostile conditions present in the open waters.

The GFS seems to be developing a sub 985 mbar system towards the end of the run. Thoughts on this, anyone?

[Yellow Evan]

GFS shows two systems.

[hurricanes1234]

This is the furthest south I've seen waters at more than 28°C. Usually, below Panama, waters are much cooler than this, and show up reddish brown on this image, normally. But now, it's orange!

[Yellow Evan]

This is the furthest south I've seen waters at more than 28°C. Usually, below Panama, waters are much cooler than this, and show up reddish brown on this image, normally. But now, it's orange!

Did you recall seeing any cool SST's during 2006 and 2009 off the Panama coast. I don't, but my memory could be off

[Yellow Evan]

GFS develops this around 200 hours out.

Also shows something near the CPAc

[hurricanes1234]

Something else to look out for other than 95E.

2. A low pressure area could form to the south of Mexico by late this
week, and some development of this system is possible thereafter
while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

This is the one on the TWO. Needs to be watched closely IMO. GFS brings it onshore as a strengthening TS near Colima.



System #2. Now shows a Kiko 13 like track.

[Yellow Evan]

CMC brings this close to the coast, like a Dora 05.



CMC hints at two more systems within 10 days

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF shows this, but further west.

[Kingarabian]

[img][/img]

HWRF shows this, but further west.

Would like to see the HWRF verify true once again. This model has done pretty well so far. 5 more days until development...