Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[KimmieLa]

If the continuous rain wasn't enough, now we have to wait for the local rivers to rise. Local weather is saying worse than 1983 flood that hit this area. A foot more. So, someone turn off the spiket, and let the run off be swift. Praying for everyone in the area experiencing this. Have had friends and family members get water in their homes already. Thundering right now, and raining pretty good again. Just wondering how much water could fall out of the sky!!

[BigB0882]

Has been raining quite hard the last 30 minutes or so. The news keeps saying it is about to slack off for a little while and maybe it is but they have been saying that all day. They also say it will pick back up in a big way later tonight/early tomorrow anyway. GFS 16z still showing over 15 inches to come. Not backing off of its solution.

[USTropics]

Some pretty cool 3d images from NASA of the flooding event in Louisiana:





source: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/twcMarkElliot/status/764237499388616704

[Steve]

Has been raining quite hard the last 30 minutes or so. The news keeps saying it is about to slack off for a little while and maybe it is but they have been saying that all day. They also say it will pick back up in a big way later tonight/early tomorrow anyway. GFS 16z still showing over 15 inches to come. Not backing off of its solution.

Yeah, Channel 6 (only reason I have been watching that is because of olympics) showed their model which basically just rains a little between now and midnight or so. By the overnight hours, it's picking back up until tomorrow late morning when it's mostly gone except for a few scattered showers tomorrow night and Sunday as some of the bands off the gulf feed back in. Another 10-15+ for East Baton Rouge, Livingston, St. Helena and/or possibly Tangipahoa Parishes seems like a good bet with 6's radar derived model. Several of those rivers are likely to set new flood stage records. Ain't much those in the way can do but get out.

[CrazyC83]

Were there any sustained 35 kt wind reports? Since one part of me still thinks this was (is) a TC.

[USTropics]

Were there any sustained 35 kt wind reports? Since one part of me still thinks this was (is) a TC.

This will be a great case study, much like Tropical Storm Erin in 2007.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Breezy this morning but nothing near tropical storm strength that i saw. Have been in Port Allen, BR, and now back home in Gonzales now. Could definitely say it looked and felt like a depression formed right over top of us. Latest hrrr run shows an exact repeat for us tomorrow

[Frank P]

Never achieved TS wind levels in Biloxi where I live on the beach... best today was a gust of 37 mph with steady state winds averaging at about 22-25 mph at worst... pressure right now is at 1010.5 and steady.. rain was another story along the northern GC

[Steve]

Breezy this morning but nothing near tropical storm strength that i saw. Have been in Port Allen, BR, and now back home in Gonzales now. Could definitely say it looked and felt like a depression formed right over top of us. Latest hrrr run shows an exact repeat for us tomorrow

Glad y'all are okay in Ascension. I heard a lot of reports on the radio mentioning Highway 16, so I'm guessing the folks down around LA Trace Road and Head of Isle (Comite and Petite Amite Rivers I think) are swamped just like everyone near the northern Tangipahoa River (in LA) around Amite. I'm guessing a few thousand people will get water in their homes and camps.

[USTropics]

The American Red Cross is collaborating with parish officials as it supports reception centers across the State and plans for overnight shelters, including several in Acadiana.

Iberia Parish
Cyr-Gates Community Center – 300 Parkview Drive, New Iberia

Lafayette Parish
Heymann Center – 1373 S. College Road, Lafayette

East Baton Rouge Parish
Baker Municipal Center Auditorium – 3325 Groom Road, Baker
BREC Park at North Sherwood Forest and Choctaw – 3140 N. Sherwood Forrest Dr., Baton Rouge
Zoar Baptist Church – 11848 Hooper Road, Central

Livingston Parish
Bethel Baptist Church – 2149 Circle Drive, Livingston
First United Methodist Church – 316 Centerville St. NW, Denham Springs
Riverside Baptist Church – 36890 Highway 16, Watson

Tangipahoa Parish
Mike Kenny Center – 601 W. Coleman, Hammond
Amite Community Center – 101 W. Chestnut, Amite
Kentwood High School – 603 Ninth St., Kentwood

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Breezy this morning but nothing near tropical storm strength that i saw. Have been in Port Allen, BR, and now back home in Gonzales now. Could definitely say it looked and felt like a depression formed right over top of us. Latest hrrr run shows an exact repeat for us tomorrow

Glad y'all are okay in Ascension. I heard a lot of reports on the radio mentioning Highway 16, so I'm guessing the folks down around LA Trace Road and Head of Isle (Comite and Petite Amite Rivers I think) are swamped just like everyone near the northern Tangipahoa River (in LA) around Amite. I'm guessing a few thousand people will get water in their homes and camps.

Thanks steve. Yeah all the local river towns and communities in Ascension and Livingston are going to be pounded by Sunday. I was only 8 when we had the '83 flood so don't remember it at all, but obviously it's going to be bad. People in BR are saying they haven't seen flooding like this in 50+ years.

[HurricaneBelle]

If this isn't a depression, then what is it? It's had the circulation, the winds (even though technically they're not needed), the structure and it's been persistent. It's not a cold core low.

[CrazyC83]

If this isn't a depression, then what is it? It's had the circulation, the winds (even though technically they're not needed), the structure and it's been persistent. It's not a cold core low.

It's definitely not extratropical as it is non-frontal.

[USTropics]

If this isn't a depression, then what is it? It's had the circulation, the winds (even though technically they're not needed), the structure and it's been persistent. It's not a cold core low.

The meteorological term for these type of systems are land depressions (more common in other basins). Basically vortexes featured over land. Land depressions can develop into 'deep depressions' (30 knots sustained winds over 3 minutes) but are never given a designated name.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Latest hrrr run shows south central la getting hammered all over again tomorrow. This is at the very end of the run with huge train of heavy rain setting up ssw to nne right across ascension and BR, of course after being pounded on all day. They are talking 100 yr flood but if this verifies would be more like 500 yr flood. Talking history in the making here.

[Steve]

Much worse than I thought it was casually watching radar. The guess of Thousands of homes/camps could end up being right. Baton Rouge Morning Advocate has a ton of video and photos. Also I-10 is closed with water flowing on it in Baton Rouge. Haha. Damn. I'd encourage anyone with any casual interest to check some of this out. Pretty crazy, but it's tropical season. Trial run for the next 6-9 weeks or so. Real life for those people NW of here.

Advocate:
http://www.theadvocate.com

WBRZ Channel 2 BR
http://www.wbrz.com/home/

[northjaxpro]

It is a 1009 mb inland tropical low pressure area, still nearly stationary near the LA and MS border, just to the northeast of Baton Rouge. I mentioned earlier how impressive the upper level outflow has been over this system. There is no question in my mind if this system had organized just about 100 miles farther south into the Gulf of Mexico, this would have been a TS or possibly a hurricane.. The extremely weak steering over this system, which has caused this severe flooding over Louisiana, really at this juncture, it does not matter in that the damage has been afflicted. This is another example in that a tropical entity does not need a name designation to bring severe severe flooding. My prayers go out to the people who have been impacted by the severe flooding in Southern Louisiana.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Pretty amazing how fast the water rose to cover the interstate. When I can home around 3 and passed siegen, water was covering the shoulder and outside lane. Four hours later it is completely covering the interstate and has been closed.

[Javlin]

That's nuts guys be safe out there!