Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[gatorcane]

GFS ensembles centered around FL and the E GOM

Yep here is the animation starting at hour 132:

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks RL3AO,

Little to close for comfort considering I have a place in Key Largo and live in Miami.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks for the animated run, almost a split.

[ROCK]

that loop above looks like the GFS is covering all bases...the entire GOM all the way around to going out to sea....

[Kingarabian]

that loop above looks like the GFS is covering all bases...the entire GOM all the way around to going out to sea....

No one gets left behind.

[RL3AO]

that loop above looks like the GFS is covering all bases...the entire GOM all the way around to going out to sea....

That's what every day 10+ ensemble forecast looks like...

[gatorcane]

Here is a loop showing the current state of this wave generating all of the hype. Lots of good rotation with some new popcorn convection forming around the rotation. That is a good sign but it looks a little elongated and somewhat "parched" due to some dry air I would guess:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[abajan]

I think NHC is out of their mind if they don't give it at least 0/20 at 8PM

Would've been really strange if they said nothing. Just too many signals to completely ignore the possibility of something forming.

[Dougiefresh]

Wow, the GFS has been consistent about this for so many runs now. I live in Barbados and never experienced a cat 2 hurricane yet!

[TheAustinMan]

This tropical wave seems to have quite the backing of the GFS ensembles. According to the figure below, there seems to be a 95% probability of genesis within 5 days per those ensembles (I am assuming that those percentages represent 2-day and 5-day figures, though I may be wrong).




Source: Alan Brammer, who runs a great site with the University of Albany over at http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abrammer/

[gatorcane]

Looks like the wave is located within a break in the SAL:

[TheStormExpert]

This is the old/current GFS's chance to go out with a bang or a bust, you choose which you think is right.

[cycloneye]

GEFS, spread in this graphic.

[blp]

I wonder about the GFS Parallel when the NHC did not want it. Maybe it has improved this year.

As for referencing climo you need to throw that out this year. The MDR is looking more like late August.

I think the Euro is going to come around tonight. I think 12z was keeping it too weak in the MDR and then when it starts to get going it gets disrupted by the proximity to CA. Look for it to tighten up earlier and move further north.

[Alyono]

Looks like the wave is located within a break in the SAL:

stepping through the 3 hour time steps, it looks like it is on the leading edge of ANOTHER SAL outbreak

Chantal 2013 may be the appropriate analog for this

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like the wave is located within a break in the SAL:

stepping through the 3 hour time steps, it looks like it is on the leading edge of ANOTHER SAL outbreak

Chantal 2013 may be the appropriate analog for this

I recall Chantal's main problem being its ridiculous forward motion, was that not the case?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks like the wave is located within a break in the SAL:

stepping through the 3 hour time steps, it looks like it is on the leading edge of ANOTHER SAL outbreak

Chantal 2013 may be the appropriate analog for this

Most of the models show the LP developing on the foward end of the wave, further away from the SAL, but I do think the GFS may be underestimating the dry air. I also think the EURO, on the other hand, is overestimating the negatives. I am no promet, and we shall see.

[cycloneye]

Chantal 2013 has been mentioned as analog for this wave.For those who dont remember the track here it is.

[ROCK]

Climo in that the BH would likely keep this from going out to sea. That was my reference.

[dexterlabio]

Looks like the wave is located within a break in the SAL:

stepping through the 3 hour time steps, it looks like it is on the leading edge of ANOTHER SAL outbreak

Chantal 2013 may be the appropriate analog for this

I recall Chantal's main problem being its ridiculous forward motion, was that not the case?

I think the problem with Chantal wasn't the fast forward motion itself, the LLC was trying to catch up with the accelerating mid-level center. I remember a few mets giving clear explanation about that.