2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[NDG]

Pattern in the long range looks very El-nino-ish. Active EPac with loads of shear in the Gulf of Mexico and throughout the Caribbean. Upward motion will be favored from the Central Pacific to the EPac. To me, this does not scream Western Caribbean development for the next two weeks at least. GFS could be jumping the gun by a week or two. The end of June might be more favorable if the MJO is able to squeak into the Western portion of the basin. We’ll see!

This shouldn't be the discussion we should be having on this thread but here it goes.
1984 & 1985 were very active EPAC seasons, with 1985 having the 3rd busiest EPAC season, but there was nothing close to an El Nino on those 2 years.
Current wind shear across Caribbean are average for this time of the year, at worst, if not slightly below normal in average.
Below average over all across the GOM.

Edit: I think I misunderstood your post, so my apologies if I did.

[NDG]

I think the GFS may have the right solution of development in the NW Caribbean/Southern GOM, but like back in May it maybe jumping the time too quickly thus why maybe the Euro is not showing development yet, it maybe in the 10-14 day range instead of within 7-10 day range so eventually the Euro may start picking up on development as we get closer to the 10-14 range, unless the GFS eventually drops it and has been wrong all along, time will tell.

[underthwx]

I think the GFS may have the right solution of development in the NW Caribbean/Southern GOM, but like back in May it maybe jumping the time too quickly thus why maybe the Euro is not showing development yet, it maybe in the 10-14 day range instead of within 7-10 day range so eventually the Euro may start picking up on development as we get closer to the 10-14 range, unless the GFS eventually drops it and has been wrong all along, time will tell.

Just read NWS Brownsville forecast discussion, it makes note of the GFS continues to indicate something sub-tropical, or tropical spinning up on the Eastern side of the Yucatan, possibly skirting the West coast of Florida a couple days later. "On a side note, long range model guidance (at least the GFS)
continues to show the formation of a weak subtropical or tropical
system near the Yucatan Peninsula (east side) around the 10th of
June, with an eventual movement towards Florida (west side) a
couple of days later"... (From NWS Brownsville Forecast Discussion)

[LarryWx]

What exactly is the ICON model, never of it before it was added to Tropical Tidbits recently.

The iCON is the German model. It did quite well with the first week of January very rare coastal SE winter storm. It was the best of the medium range models and even did much better than the Euro as it correctly had the surface low hug the coast more than the other models a number of days in advance (except some NAM runs also did this once in range). However, of course, that doesn't mean it is overall the best model for the tropics or even for nontropical for that matter.

[northjaxpro]

What exactly is the ICON model, never of it before it was added to Tropical Tidbits recently.

The iCON is the German model. It did quite well with the first week of January very rare coastal SE winter storm. It was the best of the medium range models and even did much better than the Euro as it correctly had the surface low hug the coast more than the other models a number of days in advance (except some NAM runs also did this once in range). However, of course, that doesn't mean it is overall the best model for the tropics or even for nontropical for that matter.

Don't forget Larry that the GFS did well with the SE U.S. Coastal Winter Storm back in January as well in the longer range. Remember, I stuck my neck out there as others on here were skeptical by me sticking with the GFS with genesis of that system when all the other models i.e. EURO, UKMET did not have it.

[MississippiWx]

Pattern in the long range looks very El-nino-ish. Active EPac with loads of shear in the Gulf of Mexico and throughout the Caribbean. Upward motion will be favored from the Central Pacific to the EPac. To me, this does not scream Western Caribbean development for the next two weeks at least. GFS could be jumping the gun by a week or two. The end of June might be more favorable if the MJO is able to squeak into the Western portion of the basin. We’ll see!

This shouldn't be the discussion we should be having on this thread but here it goes.
1984 & 1985 were very active EPAC seasons, with 1985 having the 3rd busiest EPAC season, but there was nothing close to an El Nino on those 2 years.
Current wind shear across Caribbean are average for this time of the year, at worst, if not slightly below normal in average.
Below average over all across the GOM.

Edit: I think I misunderstood your post, so my apologies if I did.

I’m pretty sure you misunderstood.

Current shear values do not indicate future shear values. The lack of convection/storms in the EPac has certainly kept shear values at bay so far. According to models, that is about to change. Focus for convective development should be on the EPac side for the next two weeks.

[MetroMike]

Pattern in the long range looks very El-nino-ish. Active EPac with loads of shear in the Gulf of Mexico and throughout the Caribbean. Upward motion will be favored from the Central Pacific to the EPac. To me, this does not scream Western Caribbean development for the next two weeks at least. GFS could be jumping the gun by a week or two. The end of June might be more favorable if the MJO is able to squeak into the Western portion of the basin. We’ll see!

This shouldn't be the discussion we should be having on this thread but here it goes.
1984 & 1985 were very active EPAC seasons, with 1985 having the 3rd busiest EPAC season, but there was nothing close to an El Nino on those 2 years.
Current wind shear across Caribbean are average for this time of the year, at worst, if not slightly below normal in average.
Below average over all across the GOM.

Edit: I think I misunderstood your post, so my apologies if I did.

I’m pretty sure you misunderstood.

Current shear values do not indicate future shear values. The lack of convection/storms in the EPac has certainly kept shear values at bay so far. According to models, that is about to change. Focus for convective development should be on the EPac side for the next two weeks.

Isn't shear normally high this time of year? If so this could be an indicator of future conditions? The trend is your friend.

[MississippiWx]

Pattern in the long range looks very El-nino-ish. Active EPac with loads of shear in the Gulf of Mexico and throughout the Caribbean. Upward motion will be favored from the Central Pacific to the EPac. To me, this does not scream Western Caribbean development for the next two weeks at least. GFS could be jumping the gun by a week or two. The end of June might be more favorable if the MJO is able to squeak into the Western portion of the basin. We’ll see!

??

Using the GFS modeled MJO forecast is not going to help your argument when the GFS is the only group showing development on the Atlantic side. It sees more upward motion than any other group. Thus, conditions are more favorable for tropical development. Looks like classic GFS progressing the MJO too fast.

[MississippiWx]

This shouldn't be the discussion we should be having on this thread but here it goes.
1984 & 1985 were very active EPAC seasons, with 1985 having the 3rd busiest EPAC season, but there was nothing close to an El Nino on those 2 years.
Current wind shear across Caribbean are average for this time of the year, at worst, if not slightly below normal in average.
Below average over all across the GOM.

Edit: I think I misunderstood your post, so my apologies if I did.

I’m pretty sure you misunderstood.

Current shear values do not indicate future shear values. The lack of convection/storms in the EPac has certainly kept shear values at bay so far. According to models, that is about to change. Focus for convective development should be on the EPac side for the next two weeks.

Isn't shear normally high this time of year? If so this could be an indicator of future conditions? The trend is your friend.

Sure, it is normally high. However, over the next couple of weeks even the GFS shows the shear anomalies 20kts+ above average because the EPac wakes up.

[Aric Dunn]

Pattern in the long range looks very El-nino-ish. Active EPac with loads of shear in the Gulf of Mexico and throughout the Caribbean. Upward motion will be favored from the Central Pacific to the EPac. To me, this does not scream Western Caribbean development for the next two weeks at least. GFS could be jumping the gun by a week or two. The end of June might be more favorable if the MJO is able to squeak into the Western portion of the basin. We’ll see!

??
[img]http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png[/ig]

Using the GFS modeled MJO forecast is not going to help your argument when the GFS is the only group showing development on the Atlantic side. It sees more upward motion than any other group. Thus, conditions are more favorable for tropical development. Looks like classic GFS progressing the MJO too fast.

PIck your poison.... standard mean MJO forecast have it going favorable from the 11th to the 16 and beyond of course..

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

[LarryWx]

The Euro/EPS (12Z) still have essentially nothing forming in the W Car or GOM.

[Aric Dunn]

The interesting thing is.. we were all expecting the GFS to keep pushing back the time for development. but it has been very consistent getting things moving right around the 10th..

[northjaxpro]

The interesting thing is.. we were all expecting the GFS to keep pushing back the time for development. but it has been very consistent getting things moving right around the 10th..

Yes it has. I have also noticed this as well Aric.

[floridasun78]

i want miami beach water still cold not warm support ts or hurr right off coast near coast not sure how it in Bahama or east of islands

[LarryWx]

For a Happy Hour run, today's 18Z GEFS is underwhelming as it is actually less active than the 12Z/6Z/0Z and the least active 18Z of at least the last 4 days. Only one member appears to make it to TS strength before hitting FL and the # of geneses is not as high though whatever geneses there are are still mainly on 6/10.

The 18Z GFS was also less impressive than its last 3 counterparts.

I look at this GFS/GEFS run in combo with the still very quiet EPS as a hint that the GFS may soon back away from this W Car/GOM threat but we'll see as it is still a ways out there (7 days).

[floridasun78]

maybe i still go beach next weekend as gfs starting show less of system

[La Breeze]

maybe i still go beach next weekend as gfs starting show less of system

I'm still hoping to go to the Keys from the 9th to the 15th - please no system.

[Weather150]

12z Euro and its ensembles continued to show no development and nothing but higher pressures across the Caribbean and Gulf, even the CMC shows that. That just makes me pretty skeptical still.

[floridasun78]

we likely wonr see no system on gfs or other models our next system wont be until late June or month of july

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro and its ensembles continued to show no development and nothing but higher pressures across the Caribbean and Gulf, even the CMC shows that. That just makes me pretty skeptical still.

the 12z CMC show some signs of development ..