2019 EPAC season

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1165814438470926336

[hurricanes1234]

If this sort of thing continues indefinitely, I'm wondering if even an average season may be a bit of a stretch.

[CyclonicFury]

It's been so quiet lately.
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1167142095989047296

[Kingarabian]

There's plenty of fuel across the EPAC/CPAC. PDO and PMM configurations remain favorable. Most down years typically occur when there's well defined La Nina, cool PDO, and cool PMN. Right now there's a strong sinking cell over the EPAC and Atlantic. EPS shows it gone and replaced by rising motion after September 6. We'll see if this season will be back loaded or not. But yeah extremely disappointing to not see some strong harmless fish this season.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1167968741340004353

[AnnularCane]

:lol:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1167968741340004353

Wasn't the Atlantic supposed to do that?

[Astromanía]

Invest 98E came late, sad because is one of the most fastest organizing systems in EPAC this year if not the fastest

[Kingarabian]

Pretty good support for a system to form near 140W with the Euro and GFS in agreement on development within 48 hours.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty good support for a system to form near 140W with the Euro and GFS in agreement on development within 48 hours.

Lot's of model support for system to spin off the Monsoon trough from the model and their ensembles. Expecting a circle or an invest soon.

[Astromanía]

Pretty good support for a system to form near 140W with the Euro and GFS in agreement on development within 48 hours.

Lot's of model support for system to spin off the Monsoon trough from the model and their ensembles. Expecting a circle or an invest soon.

How much potential this future system has? will it be a strong longtracker? it's been awhile since Erick

[1900hurricane]

Pretty good support for a system to form near 140W with the Euro and GFS in agreement on development within 48 hours.

Lot's of model support for system to spin off the Monsoon trough from the model and their ensembles. Expecting a circle or an invest soon.

How about a Tropical Depression?

[Astromanía]

Euro is bullish with a next potential system with a track similar to Juliette. Euro makes it a major hurricane of 962 mb, maybe it can be stronger than Juliette, we will see but NOAA says no potential cyclone formation for the next 5 days, and other models are not that bullish only make it a hurricane at best

[Kingarabian]

Euro is bullish with a next potential system with a track similar to Juliette. Euro makes it a major hurricane of 962 mb, maybe it can be stronger than Juliette, we will see but NOAA says no potential cyclone formation for the next 5 days, and other models are not that bullish only make it a hurricane at best

GFS/GFS-Legacy bearish.
CMC/Euro very bullish.

[Astromanía]

Models say we may entering an active EPAC period with two potential systems to come, I dont know what to think anymore but if those systems reach major status back to back (unlikely but not impossible) we will reach the initial expected amount of majors this season (5-8) if I not wrong.

[StruThiO]

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week a few
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Astromanía]

Up to 0/40
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 7 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette, located well west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week a few
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appears conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week
while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

For additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Blake

[Astromanía]

I expect two longtrakers coming the next days, It's okay to be optimistic . Models are very consistent and bullish with developing two systems, if those potential systems can overperform (as everyone expect from EPAC) then ACE will jump a lot. After see what Juliette could do I think EPAC is back in form

[Kingarabian]

I expect two longtrakers coming the next days, It's okay to be optimistic . Models are very consistent and bullish with developing two systems, if those potential systems can overperform (as everyone expect from EPAC) then ACE will jump a lot. After see what Juliette could do I think EPAC is back in form

Certainly does. Not only the EPAC, but the Euro and CMC show a bunch of low pressure areas forming there as well though nothing too strong.

[Chris90]

I'll continue to watch, just because I always do, but I'm not getting my hopes up for anything interesting in the EPAC. Juliette was a nice surprise, but exceeding expectations is the exception, not the norm this year. If the models keep consistently showing a decent hurricane or two I'll get more bullish, but this basin has burned me too many times this year. I think it's just as likely we see a picnic spread of invests, but all of them fail to whet the appetite.

[Astromanía]

Well I was also tired about those poor systems in this season, and I know EPAC won´t reach the expectations we have before the start of the season, but when somenthing interesting is possibly to form I will put my attention to it, I dont think that lose interest for this basin this season just because it will not exceed expectations its a good idea when there is always the posibility of a surprise storm (as Erick or Juliette), also there still the dangerous systems that treat Mexico after September when they recurves and the "longtracker period" that can affect Hawaii is not over. Anyway, I love to follow this basin because of the fishing storms this basin normally has, I think I learn many things about tropycal cyclones that don´t treat land and at the same time I can appreciate the beauty of those without feeling nervous about life treatening.