2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[LarryWx]

What does 18z euro have is it out yet?

The 18Z Euro doesn’t go out nearly that far.

[Aric Dunn]

18z GEFS.. still not that many members showing development. But with the Euro and GFS hinting at something it is worth watching.

also nothing wrong with 6z and 18z GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

5 day SAL forecast. a little less SAL after this current heavy plume.

[AutoPenalti]

Less concerned about track and intensity 348hrs out, but what stands out is that we are starting to notice lowering pressures in the basin as we enter phases 1 and 2 during the end of the month.

[SFLcane]

NHC does not bite.

Hi Luis,

Why would they on a 200+hr tc that will probably be gone next run. Atlantic still remains very hostile

[Aric Dunn]

NHC does not bite.

Hi Luis,

Why would they on a 200+hr tc that will probably be gone next run. Atlantic still remains very hostile

well 4 to 5 days for the SW carrib

[Tailspin]

Maybe the seed the ec ens were pointing too

[Cpv17]

Maybe the seed the ec ens were pointing too
http://i67.tinypic.com/dgtnj9.png
http://i67.tinypic.com/2q99vh5.png

Yep! That looks to be it. Maybe finally something to watch.

[Yellow Evan]

Considering how erratic the GFS has been in the EPAC (although it did correctly predict the most recent WPAC outbreak), I have my skepticism but the timing of this matches well with a CCKW that recently sparked the WPAC. For sure warrants keeping an eye on.

[SoupBone]

18z GEFS.. still not that many members showing development. But with the Euro and GFS hinting at something it is worth watching.

also nothing wrong with 6z and 18z GFS.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abrammer/graphics/gefs_realtime/plots/surf_circ/GEFS_ca_surf_circ_57978.240.jpg

What's the timing if something were to develop?

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like this shouldn't just be brushed off as a figment of the "happy hour" run. GFS brings it to 994, and the legacy is much more bullish at 963. Maybe some new data was ingested, we'll have to see how the Euro plays out.

[Kingarabian]

Interestingly GFS still has it but weaker.

[tolakram]

Suspicious echo on both the GFS and Euro between a gulf disturbance and an EPAC storm. I wonder which will end of developing, if either do.

[tolakram]

At this range all the models can do is tell us conditions may be more favorable in the Gulf and nearby. That's my take.

[gatorcane]

Exactly, it is clear the GFS is highly inconsistent in the long-range and even in the medium to long-range for that matter. But my take is that conditions could be improving for some development in either the Western Caribbean / Yucatán / Gulf. The Euro is also thinking something similar so bears watching. It will be difficult to get out of August without a named system when just 3% of years in the satellite era had no system in August.

[SFLcane]

Crickets continue on the 18z GFS...

[tolakram]

Here's the latest Euro long range. I'm deleting more silly model bashing, if you don't have anything constructive to add to the conversation then please refrain from posting.

[MacTavish]

Not sure what everyone is complaining about with the GFS. It has definitely cut back on the number of phantom storms from previous years. Yeah, its catching on to something moving into the gulf region but thats a week out almost.. and obviously no model is going to have the details down at this point in time.

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM goes out 240 hours now. Link to bookmark:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html

[Hammy]

As per latest GFS it looks like the WAM is finally expected to weaken, allowing the ITCZ to take over, around the end of August. Wave circled looks like it might be the first MDR storm to show up in the models, I'd expect around when the models start reaching Sep 2-4.