2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

I am beginning to question my decision to pass on purchasing trip insurance for my upcoming Bahamas cruise, approx. 2 weeks from now Prior to now, I have been feeling fairly confident that our present "background state" would not evolve quickly enough to present a suddenly favorable "foreground state". Ah yes, but here we are once again. Facing that proverbial light-switch or ringing of the bell. Last year proved that climatology alone does not dictate the event. With the broad spread of models seemingly waking from their long slumber, common sense suggests that the sleeping bear is about to waken. Whether that amounts to one or two additional moderate to strong tropical storms by mid-month, or seeing our 1st hurricane to develop for the year, this remains to be seen. It is however these subtle shifts in each new days' model ensemble & operational forecasts that fascinate me so much. Guaging the change and the speed (timing) in which the various models increase or back off forecasted areas of development as well as change in their forecast intensities. It's easy to get caught up in the noise regarding any one specific model forecasting Armageddon somewhere, or about individual model track recurve tendencies. Looks to me like we've finally arrived to a point in this season where models start providing hints of changing conditions within certain areas of the basin. That was not the case last year at this time.

[BobHarlem]

Still nothing consistent on the operational globals, but the 0z Euro shows a hurricane dangerously close to Bermuda on the 13th, and another system in the Caribbean forming shortly after. The Euro AI is back to putting a hurricane into south Florida on the 15th and into the Gulf/Mississippi. (Just a week later than the last time it was doing that -- It's going to get reputation for doing so) Long range is just wildly.

Most of the models are having a difficult time on what to do with the energy off the Carolinas also. (including GFS)

Although it does appear late august is more likely for a us landfall than usual if something actually develops, the longer range has been lacking any consistency on most of the models for any particular system. I'd be concerned if anything actually persisted for more than 24 hours or had multiple models going for it. (Ensembles are having the same issue)

Highlights (Again no consistancy):
0z Euro showing something near Bermuda:


0z Euro showing this in the West Caribbean


0z Euro AI wanting South Florida... again:


0z Euro AI then heading to Mississippi


Not shown:
The general confusion on what to do with the area off the Carolinas by GFS/UK/CMC and Euro.
GFS and CMC don''t show anything close to what the euros do, although there's a few ensembles on them, just not enough to take seriously. The ensembles showcases uncertainty with the stuff of the Carolinas more than anything else.
Euro ensembles are more a concern later, but the mismatch against the GFS ones in the MDR makes it not specific enough to pinpoint anything. (Euro does a few things off the Carolinas too, but the operational models don't seem to like it)

One thing I picked up on though, we definitely have a potential for multiple storms going at once around 2 1/2 - 3 weeks into August, just difficult to say where at.

6z GFS shows this too kinda. Gulf area for the wave NE of the Caribbean, area off Southeast, area north of Bermuda, and a bigger one well east into the Atlantic all at once. Subtle hints things just may suddenly pick up.

[ronjon]

The 00z Euro-AI does have some support from the Euro ensembles. Think at this long range tracks are pretty meaningless but overall the models are suggesting a major pickup in tropical cyclogenesis as we enter mid August.

[jlauderdal]

The 00z Euro-AI does have some support from the Euro ensembles. Think at this long range tracks are pretty meaningless but overall the models are suggesting a major pickup in tropical cyclogenesis as we enter mid August.

When the GFS hits South Florida, the season will officially start. It has euro ai support,

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

[Javlin]

The Euro AI is back to putting a hurricane into south Florida on the 15th and into the Gulf/Mississippi. (Just a week later than the last time it was doing that -- It's going to get reputation for doing so) Long range is just wildly.

I really do not buy per say esp. being AI?I think AI uses pass history does it not?just being Camille's anniversary date is suspect.I know for us here along the coast August and the first 15 days of September are our peak the AI feels a little like climo.

[ChrisH-UK]

Google AI Weather Lab has a hurricane out in the atlantic. Now the model is trained itself using pat historical models and has had a pretty good forecast of track and intensity going to be intresting to compare this model and the likes of global and hurricane models this season.



National Tropical Weather Conferance : Google Deep Mind Weather Lab