2014 EPAC Season

[hurricanes1234]

Up to 30% in 5 days. Also, a huge area of thick convection lies right below Panama in that area.

2. A low pressure area is expected to form to the south of Mexico by
late this week, and development of this system is possible by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Formation





A very large major. Could be very destructive. Diameter of that thing is around 1800 miles.

[Ntxw]

Here comes the MJO and Kelvin waves (follow the blue, 120 and east you're entering EPAC territory)

[Yellow Evan]

GFDL on board with this as well.



ECMWF shows it further west and later on

[Yellow Evan]

GFS calls for a much much weaker Douglas. Brings it onshore. Much like Boris, but it's Colima here.



18z GFS showed this as Elida while CMC shows it sooner.

[hurricanes1234]

That is madness. How could it just jump backwards like that from a sub 980 mbar storm to one that is above 1000 mbar in one or two runs? It just amazes me, because what is it really forecasting?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What is the HWRF showing now? So far, they have been spot on.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system is expected to form to the south of Mexico
late this week, and development of this system is possible by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

GFS again brings Douglas onshore as a TS



CMC makes it a hurricane, but keeps it just offshore.



CMC also shows another hurricane at the end of the period.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system is expected to form to the south of Mexico
late this week, and development of this system is possible by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF on fire





New circulation forming behind the potential major hurricane, three systems in a row?

[cycloneye]

The CPC global hazards section has highlighted the EPAC in red for weeks one and two citing favorable enviroment.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS keeps Douglas offshore, but still as a hurricane. Also shows Elida. Not sure if I buy it though. Reminds me of Comse.95E last year (Elida is 95E in this case, which did not form).



Also hints at a third system in early to mid July.

[Kingarabian]

EMCWF is really liking this MJO pulse.

[Yellow Evan]

EMCWF is really liking this MJO pulse.

It should be; it is pretty strong.

[Yellow Evan]

Here is Douglas. Now shows it moving onshore just like Boris.



Two systems



A hurricane

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form to the south of the
coast of Mexico later this week, and conditions appear favorable for
some development of this system by the weekend while it moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[TheStormExpert]

EMCWF is really liking this MJO pulse.

It should be; it is pretty strong.

http://s12.postimg.org/jw1brx61p/twc_gl ... _vp200.png

Any chance that this could try and attempt to kick start the Atlantic season?

[Yellow Evan]

EMCWF is really liking this MJO pulse.

It should be; it is pretty strong.

http://s12.postimg.org/jw1brx61p/twc_gl ... _vp200.png

Any chance that this could try and attempt to kick start the Atlantic season?

Possibly eventually, but MJO appears to be staying in the EPAC for a bit. Hence why the models show a bunch of storms.

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF continues to show the two systems making the second one a bonifide hurricane.