2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Have models ever shown anything below 900mb on record? Or are they not capable?

Do you read WPAC threads at all? They do it all the time in the WPAC. So yes, they are capable now (weren't last year).

Keep in mind that sub-900mbar has never officially happened (though a couple IMO were sub-900).

[Kingarabian]

Have models ever shown anything below 900mb on record? Or are they not capable?

Do you read WPAC threads at all? They do it all the time in the WPAC. So yes, they are capable now (weren't last year).

Keep in mind that sub-900mbar has never officially happened (though a couple IMO were sub-900).

I visit the WPAC threads and look at the hurricanes pictures but there's too much going on all at once. It'll be a daytime job to follow the EPAC and the WPAC during the summer.

But good to know!

[CrazyC83]

To go sub-900 without Recon, at least one agency would likely need a T8.0 on the Dvorak scale.

[Yellow Evan]

To go sub-900 without Recon, at least one agency would likely need a T8.0 on the Dvorak scale.

T8.0 is almost impossible in this basin. DT can't go any higher than T7.5

[cycloneye]

Well,18z GFS goes below 900mbs. (898 mbs)

[Yellow Evan]

This better verify.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive, and this
system could become a tropical depression over the weekend while it
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1100 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur are
associated with a tropical wave and a broad low pressure area. Some
development of this system is anticipated through this weekend and
into early next week while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

Holy crap.

[Ntxw]

You can just get the sense something big is about to brew in the EPAC. With the Euro consistency and GFS overhype maps looks ripe. Super imposed CCKW/MJO to boot.

[Yellow Evan]

Agreed, though I'm a little more conservative due to recent busts.

[Kingarabian]

Euro and GFS still depicting a large hurricane and a slow mover initially. May hinder its chances at cat.5.

[Yellow Evan]

Euro and GFS still depicting a large hurricane and a slow mover initially. May hinder its chances at cat.5.

It may, but as long as it's not stalling totally, it shouldn't be too bad.

[Kingarabian]

Should make up for lost ACE units in June if it tracks west.

[Yellow Evan]

We still have the highest YTD ACE.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS like all other GFS develops the 10% first. Like last bunch of runs.

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1100 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur are
associated with a tropical wave and a broad low pressure area.
Gradual development is anticipated through the weekend, and this
system will likely become a tropical depression by early next week
while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive, and this system will likely
become a tropical depression by early next week while it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1100 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur are
associated with a tropical wave and a broad low pressure area.
Gradual development is anticipated through the weekend, and this
system will likely become a tropical depression by early next week
while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico are associated with a tropical wave.
Conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
over the next several days, and this system will likely become a
tropical depression by early next week while it moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

916 mbar



927 mbar

[tolakram]

Been a while since deep purple has shown up on this GFS plot.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1100 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur are
associated with a tropical wave and a broad low pressure area.
Gradual development is anticipated through the weekend, and this
system will likely become a tropical depression by early next week
while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico are associated with a tropical wave and a
weak area of low pressure. Conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development over the next several days, and this system
will likely become a tropical depression by early next week while it
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan