2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Alyono]

and how is there going to be east coast trouble when everything turns north at 45W? The ridge appears to be too far north, especially given the weakness at 55-60W

[Hurricaneman]

and how is there going to be east coast trouble when everything turns north at 45W? The ridge appears to be too far north, especially given the weakness at 55-60W

We're talking about an area between Bermuda and the Bahamas at the mid levels that develops and sits SW of Bermuda from about 144hrs to 210hrs on the 12zGFS and now the 18zGFS. The Euro does the same thing but develops a surface low and its 500mb low makes it back to North Carolina at 240hrs so its something to watch

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Sanibel]

Deepening wave train off Africa in ITCZ.


Ooops! I see that is 96L.

[LarryWx]

For past strong+ (oncoming) El Ninos (17 of them) with MDR August geneses for TC's that eventually became at least a TS, here are the dates of genesis:

8/3, 8/17, 8/22, 8/26, 8/28, 8/28, 8/30

The bolded ones later hit the CONUS.

So the 17 strong+ Ninos' August geneses, including those that later hit the CONUS, are weighted toward the last week of the month fwiw. that shouldn't be much of a surprise being that overall climo favors more activity then vs. earlier in the month.

I'm using this def. of MDR in this post: E of 60W and S of 20N

[galaxy401]

So the Atlantic now has its 4th named storm. Just so you know, the fourth storm of 2010 didn't form until August 21. Obviously conditions are drastically different though.

[Ntxw]

So the Atlantic now has its 4th named storm. Just so you know, the fourth storm of 2010 didn't form until August 21. Obviously conditions are drastically different though.

Yeah but 2010 at the 4th storm produced almost 28 ACE vs this year's 4.64. Alex in 2010 alone produced more energy than all four thus far combined. However, it's good to see that something is able to survive out there and the 30+ day drought of not adding any ACE is coming to an end.

[blp]

Great article about CCKW posted by Bob Henson.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3078

[Hurricaneman]

The models are showing a very active MDR which is very uncommon for an El Nino which begs the question about the possibility 2016 being epic based on the current El Nino conditions possibly changing to more favorable for next year

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

For a Strong El Niño season it is sure getting active looking according to the latest TWO Graphics.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5h5 hours ago Texas, USA

Still think Danny likely to die but system behind it bigger concern for US in 7-10 day... PR and Islands too. Danny: much needed rain PR

[tolakram]

System behind has to run through the same gauntlet.

So we have our 1 major, what are the chances of sneaking in another?

[Steve]

I'm not calling for it but there is no reason we couldn't see another 1 or 2. If 2002 ends up being a legit analog, there were 4 Hs 2 of which became IHs. ACE that year was mid 60s. 1997 had 3 Hs and 1 IH with low 40s ACE. Both seasons had at least 8 named storms, and we are only on 4. With stronger el ninos seeming to favor September, it seems reasonable to conclude there are strong enough waves and high enough sst's and pockets of atmospheric moisture to support strong hurricanes. Ultimately though, who knows?

[Hammy]

So we've reached the midpoint of the season, and comparing to the last two years: We have the same number of storms as 2013, but with two hurricanes and one major (having no majors in 2013 and only two hurricanes, both in mid-September) while we've had double the number of storms as last year by this point (and are only two behind the season as a whole), with one less hurricane but one major.

Unless we have an early end to the season (which is entirely possible as it happened in 2002) we should match beat last year's numbers--one more major would tie that, we only need three more storms (maybe two in Sep and one in Oct) to beat that, but four more hurricanes to match last year.

[NDG]

I wouldn't doubt if this is it for the Caribbean and GOM, maybe even for the eastern US Atlantic coastal waters.
Is September 1st with fairly unfavorable UL conditions, I think conditions will continue to go downhill through the rest of September.

[gatorcane]

You may want to check the global models as far as the Eastern Atlantic

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I wouldn't doubt if this is it for the Caribbean and GOM, maybe even for the eastern US Atlantic coastal waters.
Is September 1st with fairly unfavorable UL conditions, I think conditions will continue to go downhill through the rest of September.

When did it ever begin

And gator think you misunderstood, ndg was talking about east coast Atlantic not far eastern Atlantic.

[Hammy]

When did it ever begin

June 16, when Bill formed remember.

[SouthDadeFish]

I just whipped up this plot. 2015 has had the most subsidence on record in the CFSR era for the first half of a hurricane season. It's no surprise instability is lacking with this much subsidence and warming.

[WPBWeather]

Way way too much wrong opinion this year on MDR, Sal, etc. by many who ought to know better.

[Ntxw]

Statistical update for the season so far to date

6/2/1

ACE (this is how NOAA ranks seasons)

22 units (*2nd lowest)

*Peak season is currently ongoing thus a hurricane or several tropical storms could quickly bring it up should they occur


Overall we are following 1997 closely still. Pulses of activity through peak in the first half, in 1997 this week Erika became a long tracking major and racked up 26 units of ACE to bring it up at peak season then shut down afterwards. Where will 2015 head?