Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[BigB0882]

This was posted on another message board, what do you guys think? Might it save us from some of the bigger totals over here in Baton Rouge area or is this just part of what was expected? I don't have the graphic to post but maybe someone knows how to:

"Maybe some good news, intense convection off to the west might be able to disrupt inflow and kick off some subsidence hampering storm redevelopment this evening. However, there appears to be plenty of high theta-e air pooling off the coast that could surge back northward once the low level jet gets cranked up this evening."

[USTropics]

Starting to see convection wrap back around towards the east and building:

[Steve]

Not sure Bob, but I think it will crank again in the overnight hours. TWC is featuring the flooding. They showed flood watches out from Arkansas through Ohio with the front stalling out, high pressure funneling in moisture from the SE and the low pressure system in MS now. Again, glad this wasn't worse of a system.

[stormwise]

If this isn't a depression, then what is it? It's had the circulation, the winds (even though technically they're not needed), the structure and it's been persistent. It's not a cold core low.

The meteorological term for these type of systems are land depressions (more common in other basins). Basically vortexes featured over land. Land depressions can develop into 'deep depressions' (30 knots sustained winds over 3 minutes) but are never given a designated name.

If you go back to the 10th and look over radars and the other numerous sat-pics floating around on the net, you likely can make a case it was a td with strong mid-level centre rotation before moving onto land.

[Sanibel]

Hints of Allison 2001...

[BigB0882]

Latest GFS (00z) still showing 10-15 inches in SCLA, targeted on the Baton Rouge area. The NAM shows 6 inches but it seems too far east and it seems it has been that way for this event so I tend to favor the GFS at this point but even going down the middle gives near 10 inches more. The river flooding will be historic.

[JSDS]

This can stop any time now. I've had 18.7" at my house since Wednesday, and that was before the rain that started back about an hour ago. We will be packing and putting furniture up tomorrow, and heading out before dark (and before the river invades my house). My house had 3" in 1983, and this crest is predicted to be 2.5 feet higher

[tailgater]

So sad JS, Hoping it stops REAL soon.
I'll probably be sandbagging my Mom's house, in 83 we did and it would have had about 1 " in it. if the forecast are correct it may not be worth trying. even with the pumping system Ascension parish has. Not sure if they can keep up.

[northjaxpro]

It looks as if the Tropical Low drifted ever so slowly west the past 12 hours. It is now just to the northwest of Baton Rouge literally. This is terrible news as the deep pool of tropical moisture has filled back in over Baton Rouge and points south and east of the Low Pressure area, to the coast now. Moderate to heavy rain falling over the area. The low is trying to merge up with a front which is currently extending down into Northeast Texas. The tropical low is just meandering and more torrential rain likely will occur over some areas that have already received 10-20 inches. Just a terrible situation unfolding down in Louisiana. Everyone down in the flooded areas please be safe! I pray that thiis rain will mercifully come to an end very soon.

[windnrain]

Baton Rouge resident... I fled South, very strange to do during a tropical event, but I am watching this whole system terrified for my home.

[Steve]

Looks like New Orleans is mostly out of the woods with everything west of here. There is a nice line coming up from the south, but it's the River Parishes, Baton Rouge and Lafayerte and points south of there (Youngsville, New Iberia, Franklin, Abbeyville, etc.) that should be taking the brunt today. Feels odd out, like a fall morning but tropical. It's breezy, and the low clouds are streaming in. Hopefully things will taper off during the afternoon which has mostly been the case with this. Also, I'm pretty sure some people in SE and E TX will get some rain out of the con binational combination of this low and the stalled front.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah my fear was that the rain was coming back in overnight and this morning. Just sitting over the same areas. My prayers go out to all.impacted with the severe flooding. Be safe out there.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/764427045006823424




 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/764428661231542273

[northjaxpro]

Heck I think if it was 100 - 120 miles to the south of where the Low Pressure currently is I feel it would have possibly reached minimum hurricane status. If you consider the expansive upper level outflow, and the extremely favorable environment and ssts in the GOM, this would have likely occured. This would have developed being just within 50 miles off the coast imo.

But, with the extremely slow movement of this system, the effects would have been similar with all the massive flooding. We just would have had more pressing issues with wind, coastal flooding and storm surge if this had developed offshore into a hurricane. Thank God that did not happen, however the situation is terrible regardless unfortunately with the ongoing flooding across the region.

[windnrain]

The Amite at Denham/Baton Rouge is going WELL past the forecast points.



This is going to be terrible for Denham obviously, but also us in Baton Rouge because all our canals drain here.

[CajunMama]

The Vermilion River in Lafayette is at 16.39'. Major flooding occurs at 16'. Estimated crest is at 18.5' but with this rain that won't quit I believe it will be higher. This flood is now the 3rd worst on record and will probably be #2 shortly. Louisiana is so inundated with this rain. It's horrific.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This reminds me a lot of what happened in Carolina last year with the fire hose Joaquin created. Stay safe everyone along the Gulf of Mexico.

[TheStormExpert]

Once again this goes to show you that you do not need a tropical cyclone to cause MAJOR problems.

Stay safe everyone!

[northjaxpro]

15Z surface analysis showed that 1008 mb Tropical Low is still a separate entity about 70 miles north of Lake Charles, LA. Still has not merged with that stalled front just to the west in Northeast TX. More heavy rain will unfortunately continue over Baton Rouge, Lafayette and over into Southwestern LA into the rest of the day into tonight. Just terrible for Louisiana.

[bohaiboy]

Even though this system is non tropical, keep in mind that south Louisiana is primarily water ways and swamps, so technically not over ocean waters, it does have a high source of moisture and hot water to deal with. I would almost bet that the water in the swamps of LA is even warmer than offshore water because it is so shallow in comparison. It just keeps feeding the monster. I certainly hope as it moves westward toward the Houston area that it has weakened somewhat, but time will tell. Should start here sometimes late tonight or tomorrow. Had a brief TS this morning that dropped 0.21" in the Spring area.