Wave WSW of CV Islands

[boca]

The 00GFS models runs are just coming out about now. At 12 hrs so far.

The 18Z was quite a scary run Boca for those in the Leewards, Bahamas, and Southern FL, let's see if it is similar or alot different. The 00Z has more data than the 18Z.

I know thats why I'm staying up I want to see what it does and it should be in the medium range by now 180hrs by the time it gets to Bahamas/Florida if it does at that point.

[TwisterFanatic]

Can i get a link to the GFS?

[gatorcane]

Seems to be organizing quite nicely on the 00Z. At the 36 hours, looks like maybe tropical storm Colin already

Link to 00Z run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[boca]

Seems to be organizing quite nicely on the 00Z. At the 36 hours, looks like maybe tropical storm Colin already.

Link to 00Z run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

Its at 40w at that point gatorcane and I keep looking at that high north of it for breaks in the ridge.

[boca]

I'm also concerned about that trough extending from the Bahamas lifting out by the time it gets to the NE Caribbean area.It could pull a Bonnie type track.

[gatorcane]

Seems to be organizing quite nicely on the 00Z. At the 36 hours, looks like maybe tropical storm Colin already.

Link to 00Z run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

Its at 40w at that point gatorcane and I keep looking at that high north of it for breaks in the ridge.

At 42 hours there is a break in the Bahamas as a shortwave moves across the Eastern CONUS. But Colin is way too far south and east to feel that. The Azores ridge seems to build some in tandem with future Colin and keeps Colin on a general WNW heading lifting it from the ITCZ.

[Recurve]

Can i get a link to the GFS?

Here's one

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml

[Vortex]

GFS 00Z rolling in...
Closed Low at H+36(Monday morning) per GFS looks to bring it to TD status Monday morning


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Vortex]

satellite presentation this evening certainly more impressive by the image...Certainly looking forward to how the remaining GFS run plays out and taking a look at the 00Z nogaps, euro, and to a lesser extent the candaian..Where's Ivanhater??? Take a night off

[gatorcane]

If you loop the IR unenhanced loop, turning is become quite evident just about where the 00Z initialized the 1009MB low

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir4.html

[Recurve]

Does it lose the low at 42 hours? I keep looking at the output and either not getting updates or not seeing it.

Nevermind. Wrong chart. Looks like it does get its act together.

[SFLcane]

Does it lose the low at 42 hours? I keep looking at the output and either not getting updates or not seeing it.

Nevermind. Wrong chart. Looks like it does get its act together.

Still there at 54hrs heading wnw

[lester]

Does it lose the low at 42 hours? I keep looking at the output and either not getting updates or not seeing it.

Not updated yet.

edit: now it's at 54

[TwisterFanatic]

If you loop the IR unenhanced loop, turning is become quite evident just about where the 00Z initialized the 1009MB low

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir4.html

Yea, you can definitely see turning in there.

[Hugo1989]

You think that this wave arrives near Puerto Rico developed more than a tropical depression?

[boca]

Notice the trough lifting out at 54 hrs, That puts an interesting twist on things for Florida and the GOM possibly down the road.

[ROCK]

54hr a 1008 low....not that impressive if you ask me...

[blp]

Looks to be just north of the islands on this one.

[Hugo1989]

I see now that for most convention before the last bulletin at 8:00. It will rise to 50% for 2:00??

[gatorcane]

Yep and getting stronger with ridging to the north, no troughs seen across North America. So far very similar to the 18Z.