2016 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFs takes us up to Howard.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several
hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico. Some subsequent
development of this system is possible while it moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days
several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico. Some
subsequent development of this system is possible while it moves
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[gatorcane]

Through the entire 2 week run, there is storm after storm the EPAC cranks out. 384 hours below:

[cycloneye]

Here comes Darby.

An area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days while it moves
generally westward, remaining well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS 3 storms (though tbf ECMWf doesn't even have 3 lows)

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized
showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the
low moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph, away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Storms Frank, Georgette, Howard, and Ivette.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS- Darby and Estelle

[gatorcane]

Count them - four cyclones in the 06z GFS run.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. However,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of this week while the low moves west-northwestward to
westward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Darvince]

How do we still not have an invest with those high chances?

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

How do we still not have an invest with those high chances?

SSD has floaters up and since they go by the NHC ACTF file...

[cycloneye]

INVEST 97E is up

[cycloneye]

And the big EPAC outbreak of systems continues to show up in the models at 12z runs by GFS and ECMWF.GFS has 6 and ECMWF has 4 if you include Celia.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/752270959814381568

[gatorcane]

18z GFS continues to show a parade of cyclones in the EPAC, after Celia, there are 5 additional cyclones the GFS is showing in the next two weeks just one after the other marching along the same track. Pretty amazing even for the EPAC

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico later this week. Some subsequent
development of this system is possible while it moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico later this week. Some subsequent
development of this system is possible while it moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent