Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[northjaxpro]

Going back to last weekend, its origins was from the extreme NE GOM . This system has always had land over it or straddling it from the Florida Big Bend to where it is now, with flooding all along the way. The rich, tropical pool of moisture from the GOM has always fed this system. So, imo this system is most definitely tropical in its nature. 20 plus inches of rain and counting in some areas in Louisiana surely seems a very tropical-like feature to yours truly.

[lrak]

It sure does look like it is splitting into two. Are the upper level winds in the GOM not favorable for development of something new?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[chaser1]

Oddly, had this system somehow been able to deepen into a strong T.S. or min. hurricane and was barely offshore, than I'm wondering if in fact the system would feel a greater influence of the mid level flow and be getting pulled northward and then northeast into the mid level flow? Of course at this point thats a mute point and furthermore it seems to be sliding west at the moment, and where the 500mb flow over E. Texas appears to be northerly anyway.

In the "good news - bad news" department, the NAM depicts a new surge of moisture coming into the Louisiana area from the southeast in about 48 hours in the form of a weak tropical wave. Bad news is that this would appear to cause some additional rainfall over the area for 24-48 hours. Good news is that this system appears to push more westward and provide E. Texas some needed rain for a few days.

[Hurricane_Apu]

Water was literally an inch from getting into my house in Lafayette (Freetown) around 11:00 this morning. Instead of coming from the street it came through the backyard from the block behind me. Fortunately it started draining into the street and going down once it filled the front yard. Now there's debris scattered everywhere... Raining hard again after a brief break an hour ago. Looks like cells are trying to backbuild...

It appears there's a low center... if not the low center... near Lafayette sinking south. I wonder if it will become the dominant low if/when it makes it into the Gulf.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Everyone please stay safe with the record flooding going on down there. Proof once more one doesn't always need a hurricane to cause massive problems.

[PTrackerLA]

Holy smokes, I've been out of town this weekend but reports of 23" nearby my house in South Lafayette. 2nd worst flooding on record for Lafayette area now. Hopefully the 10-20" of additional rain the 12z Euro showed over Lafayette does not verify, I can't even imagine. Changed my flight to get back home early tomorrow, we are safe from flooding (I think) even with the river nearby but I hear it's absolutely awful in nearby areas. I'll try to get some footage tomorrow afternoon if I can make it home!

[CajunMama]

Hurricane_Apu and PTrackerLA... Y'all are SO lucky to have not flooded. I don't even know how much I have in my home today. Fire Dept. came by to check. But I do have my claims adjuster coming Tuesday morning, hopefully getting a dehumidifier Sunday or Monday and I have a contractor lined up. And...I'm having to do all this by myself as my husband moved out. Oh...and my iPhone dropped in the toilet and is dead. 2016 can't end soon enough.

Now if the rain would just QUIT! Eough is enough. I've never seen so many total parishes with this much rain.

[Steve]

Ouch. That sucks CM. River water too. Hopefully you got your photos elevated, but everything else is replaceable regardless of the hassle. I had been assuming "thousands" of homes would have taken on water, but so many areas are isolated still this could go up to the 5 digits 10-20k homes). Hang in there.

[psyclone]

what a nightmare for our Cajun posters. if we go back a week ago the HPC trends took a swath of heavy rain from the extreme NE Gulf and pushed it westward with time. they were on target. Luckily for my region the super heavy stuff remained just offshore (radar estimates of 30"+) while far more modest amounts took place on land. We got off easy...and I emphasized this...despite some pushback from the hype squad. On the other hand you guys in LA got what I initially feared would happen in my area. I wish everyone out there the best. Safety now, cleanup later.

[Steve]

You know it man. I'm less than 35 minutes from the flooding in St Tammany, 40 in Tangipahoa, +/- an hour from Livingston and East Baton Rouge and 90 to Lafayette and Morgan City. We got lucky as **** here for once.

Looks like this low is helping to kick off some extreme weather in East Cental Texas now. History, on nights where storms formed instead of waning, they have typically moved south and then SE around the circulation. 72-94 hours out looks like the deep flow around the surface high pressure in the SE US coupled with the stalled front, tons of moisture feeding into this low from the Gulf as it rides up the front, an upper level low moving west across Florida and the tropical wave/surge southeast of Florida, there should be a band of heavy rainfall affecting a lot more of the US. After LA and now Texas, there could be serious flash flooding in NWA (what all my friends from Northwest Arkansas call that area). Then more rain will fall across Southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley and Ohio into Pennsylvania. There are watches out for many of those areas already. Joe B recommended people treat this as a storm that has made landfall and is moving north and northeast across the country. Curiously he opened with the land cane from 2003 to show how a low pressure inland can still wreak havoc and organize when some of the processes are in place. He also noted that baroclinic processes would be involved, so he wondered out loud if maybe the system would still be trying to get going around Lake Erie. That's something to watch around Thursday or so.

Should be 4-10"+ along the way up and out after the main surface low begins to lift.

[floridasun78]

watch stormchaser in Denham Springs he in flood waltmart lot

[Steve]

Post the link. (Please)

[floridasun78]

http://www.stormviewlive.com/chasers/Ke ... iamson.php and http://wall.livestormsmedia.com/brett-adair-popout/# under
Nick Copeland

[USTropics]

Pretty crazy rescue here, these guys got to her just in time:

http://www.wafb.com/story/32753230/dramatic-video-shows-woman-dog-being-rescued-from-sinking-car

[Steve]

Juiced. Looks like New Iberia and Franklin are going to see training. Line between Lafayette and BR more or less. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/

Also, one of my brother's mother and father in law in Eunice flooded out. Crazy. I'm still wondering how many homes have flooded.

[abajan]

Pretty crazy rescue here, these guys got to her just in time:

http://www.wafb.com/story/32753230/dramatic-video-shows-woman-dog-being-rescued-from-sinking-car

Brought tears to my eyes! Love happy endings

[Kazmit]

A weird system. It seems to have been lingering around the Central/Eastern Gulf coast for days. The flooding threat seems bad.

[tailgater]

We lifted some of the furniture at my moms house and brought her to my house but we'll likely have to leave also.
I have been sandbagging inlaws house, I doubt it will help but they wanted to try. We'll lift or valuables and take pics for insurance. The crest of the Amite river won't reach here for for almost 24 hrs.

[Steve]

That sucks man. I hope that water doesn't get past your yard. There is still no number on houses flooded, but NOLA has:

Over 7,000 rescues by first responders (no telling how many by friends and neighbors)

Over 5,000 people were in shelters as of last night

3 dead 1 missing

>1,000 cars stranded on interstates (I think they have gotten to everyone)

> 200 road closures

> 1400 bridges and crossings that have to get inspected before opening

This low will hopefully stay fresh in everyone's mind as we jump into the meat of a season almost certain to feature threats to the US. Keep us posted if you can man.

[xcool22]

That sucks man. I hope that water doesn't get past your yard. There is still no number on houses flooded, but NOLA has:

Over 7,000 rescues by first responders (no telling how many by friends and neighbors)

Over 5,000 people were in shelters as of last night

3 dead 1 missing

>1,000 cars stranded on interstates (I think they have gotten to everyone)

> 200 road closures

> 1400 bridges and crossings that have to get inspected before opening

This low will hopefully stay fresh in everyone's mind as we jump into the meat of a season almost certain to feature threats to the US. Keep us posted if you can man.

4 dead