Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[PTrackerLA]

For about 12 hours we had a surprisingly good model consensus for 10 days out, may it rest in peace.

[wxman57]

.....And this is why NHC keeps the odds down at 20%. I don't blame them one bit.

I agree with 20% through 5 days. If it was 7 days, I might say 50%.

[N2FSU]

Anybody post the 12z UKMET?

[TheStormExpert]

So the thought now is this buries itself into Central America without development? Go figure!

[TheProfessor]

So the thought now is this buries itself into Central America without development? Go figure!

No, I think the thought now is pretty much anything could happen to this wave since we are still so far out.

[Steve]

So the thought now is this buries itself into Central America without development? Go figure!

It's plausible. But I don't there is a consensus "the thought" or group-think on this at all. I'm sure there are the usual Euro followers and haters who will agree or disagree with its output. But you were questioning whether this might be a recurve yesterday solely on the operational run of the GFS without looking at the rest of the signals it was giving that conflicted.

However, I do think there is a consensus building among those who understand the pattern as it's evolving that there will be periods of substantial high pressure both inland and in the Western Atlantic much stronger and also later than maybe one typically expects these to be. As I told you last night, Megi was the Ace in the Hole, and if anything, the JTWC is south of the GFS run on it.

[abajan]

Wouldn't it be funny if after having a 28 page, 546 post, 11,032 view thread, this didn't develop?

[PTrackerLA]

Euro 12z Ensembles are more bullish on a TC in the Yucatan channel/GOM by day 14 than previous runs. Not much support in the ensembles for the operational run. Lots of time to go here guys.

[CourierPR]

Is that a front draped over Florida in the 12Z UKMET slide? If so, what influence might that have on the system?

[sma10]

Is that a front draped over Florida in the 12Z UKMET slide? If so, what influence might that have on the system?

Oh lordy, a front thru central Florida in the last week of September? From your lips to God's ear

[Steve]

Wouldn't it be funny if after having a 28 page, 546 post, 11,032 view thread, this didn't develop?

It would be funny but also awesome especially since there is an outside possibility of a major disruption for people and the usual potential loss of life and property. I don't really have much of a feeling one way or the other and just plan on commenting on the outputs and the feature itself until things are clearer. Short of a grand consensus, I don't think we have a real idea on the track for at least a week, and I also don't see much development until around the Caribbean (if ever).

[Steve]

Is that a front draped over Florida in the 12Z UKMET slide? If so, what influence might that have on the system?

Yes. That's the front between the two highs that the GFS showed splitting a piece of the trough off and backing it west in the 12z run. The resulting, retrograding low is the mechanism for pattern reversal and upper high pressure building over the Western Caribbean that allows it to explode. Unless the GFS is slow, and I find that difficult to see, it probably wouldn't have a lot of impact. The GFS, though it does split that piece off and sends it into the Gulf, doesn't really bring the shortwave axis south of Massachusetts/Connecticut. That's a little hard to believe unless the front draped across the South washes out near the Atlantic coast. Jmo.

[Alyono]

Euro 12z Ensembles are more bullish on a TC in the Yucatan channel/GOM by day 14 than previous runs. Not much support in the ensembles for the operational run. Lots of time to go here guys.

No surprise since they are not in the DO NOT USE resolution zone that the operational dog crap EC uses

[cycloneye]

Note=I am back after 2 days being out due to massive power outage and Internet in PR. But is still somewhat fragile so is not a done deal the complete fixing.I see things are interesting with this system in terms of the models.

[wxman57]

So the thought now is this buries itself into Central America without development? Go figure!

No, I think the thought now is pretty much anything could happen to this wave since we are still so far out.

I would agree with that. Something to watch for now. Might have a shot at developing in 6-8 days when it reaches the central Caribbean.

[blp]

Looks Ok right now.

[Alyono]

the MU is now becoming insistent that this will develop east of the Caribbean. Vorticity stronger so far on the 18Z

[Alyono]

Decent TS in 96 hours

[gatorcane]

Slightly slower and a little north of the 12Z. Trough over the Eastern United States looks stronger.

[PTrackerLA]

Here we go again with the 18z GFS depicting another monster cane

174 hrs: