Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[stormchazer]

FV3 GFS brings an intensifying hurricane just north of Tampa heading NE:

https://i.postimg.cc/5NyhJG8d/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_eus_46.png

Glad these are early runs and basically for entertainment only. That would be a worse case for Tampa depending on intensity.

[Abdullah]

A large cyclonic gyre, defined by a broad area of low pressure,
typical of this time of the year, covers a portion of Central
America and the western Caribbean Sea. This system is accompanied
by an extensive area of disorganized clouds and thunderstorms, and
although surface pressures are relatively low in the area,
upper-level winds are currently highly unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation. Environmental conditions could become less
hostile this weekend and early next week allowing some slow
development in this region as the system drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Stating the obvious, That's up from 20%.

Not really. That's the same 30% that was given in the 2:00 PM NHC Outlook.

Earlier this morning.

[NDG]

FV3 GFS brings an intensifying hurricane just north of Tampa heading NE:

https://i.postimg.cc/5NyhJG8d/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_eus_46.png

Glad these are early runs and basically for entertainment only. That would be a worse case for Tampa depending on intensity.

The FV3-GFS has been nothing but entertainment, I learned my lesson, I fell into its trap yesterday but not that the Euro has not been that much better.

[Aric Dunn]

FV3 GFS brings an intensifying hurricane just north of Tampa heading NE:

https://i.postimg.cc/5NyhJG8d/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_eus_46.png

Glad these are early runs and basically for entertainment only. That would be a worse case for Tampa depending on intensity.

The FV3-GFS has been nothing but entertainment, I learned my lesson, I fell into its trap yesterday but not that the Euro has not been that much better.

they all have thus far..

[blp]

NHC not buying the GFS it appears. Has this pointing toward Western Cuba which would support the FV3 solution versus the GFS that has this heading toward the Yucatan and BOC.

[Aric Dunn]

the GFS keeps the energy over land the entire time. annnddd we wait some more lol

[Aric Dunn]

Convection looks like its about to explode. low level cloud deck is thickening everywhere. also that vort from earlier is dropping south and convection building quickly.

we may wake up to multiple vorts rotating around.. going to be an interesting couple of days.

[Hurricaneman]

Convection looks like its about to explode. low level cloud deck is thickening everywhere. also that vort from earlier is dropping south and convection building quickly.

we may wake up to multiple vorts rotating around.. going to be an interesting couple of days.

Might be a larger vortex to the east of the eddy rotating around it

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS shows nothing of note, straight into Central America while the FV3 seems to have convective feedback issues and therefore has as TS near Jamaica

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or is it trying to curl up south of Jamaica on the shortwave IR, seems to have good vorticity at all levels, if the main low develops there it would throw a monkey wrench into the models and the 0z models may have to be disregarded as the area that seems most suspect to me is east of where models have this

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

[Aric Dunn]

Is it me or is it trying to curl up south of Jamaica, seems to have good vorticity at all levels, if the main low develops there it would throw a monkey wrench into the models and the 0z models may have to be disregarded as the area that seems most suspect to me is east of where models have this

the models should have been disregarded for the last many days except for a general area of possibility.

as for your observation. if you look east of honduras you can see inflow on thew western edge of that convection where that vort from earlier has moved. then farther south near San Andres on radar and satellite there is a good deal of low level vorticity.

I dont see anything in that convective mass near Jamacia at least not anywhere near the surface.

that vort from earlier is dropping south and the vorticity farther south are interacting. they may consolidate if enough sustained convection develops.
you sat loop is far to zoomed out too asses much of anything in the low levels.

[Aric Dunn]

[Hurricaneman]

https://image.ibb.co/kpmwte/image.gif

Looking at it again it seems we have at least 3 vortices one south of Jamaica, the eddy we have been following and the area around San Andrés island and based on that it still has a ways to go before it can develop and grow into a tropical cyclone

[chaser1]

It's "Shear Lunacy"

[LarryWx]

Unless I'm missing something, I don't see much of a chance of a TC forming in the W. Caribbean for the next few days due to the very strong shear forecasted to persist, which I assume is being helped by El Nino. I mean if there were a TC with this kind of shear, I'd think it would weaken, especially if a strong TS+. Any possible TC genesis may have to wait for the GOM or SW Atlantic, which may not even be seeded from something now in the Caribbean or else a very long time down in the Caribbean. Anyone disagree?

[Aric Dunn]

Unless I'm missing something, I don't see much of a chance of a TC forming in the W. Caribbean for the next few days due to the very strong shear forecasted to persist, which I assume is being helped by El Nino. I mean if there were a TC with this kind of shear, I'd think it would weaken, especially if a strong TS+. Any possible TC genesis may have to wait for the GOM or SW Atlantic, which may not even be seeded from something now in the Caribbean or else a very long time down in the Caribbean. Anyone disagree?

Yes,

the models have trended to weaker from land interaction. If ( and this happens all the time and the models hinted at it in previous runs) we get a large area of convection the shear axis can be split and or tilted. right now there is not a strong upper low in place and actually its rather diffuse. if this system were to produce some sustained convection it would begin to alter the placement of the upper trough. which is what the models were doing previously. however, the recent model runs have the majority of the energy staying over land and convection is minimal and thus the upper environment is no longer displaced do to the outward pressure from the convection.

so although what you say is also possible the opposite is again also possible. and like a broken record the models, as always, need to be taken with a grain of salt until we have a defined low pressure area. if it stays over land and nothing ever consolidates then what you say may happen.

right now though we just do not know.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems as though the 0zEuro develops at 48 hrs

[Hurricaneman]

I’m thinking 10/40 at 8 with recon tasked either for Friday afternoon or Saturday

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS, though not as active as the 0Z, is more active than the 18Z GEFS near and off the E coast of FL mid to late next week with several mainly weak TCs. Just something to keep an eye on.

[LarryWx]

The 0z Euro has a TD or TS in the S Gulf on 10/9.