2019 EPAC season

[Kingarabian]

Tomorow's going to be madness.

You have the two above, plus 97L and 98L and a couple CPAC systems. All could be declared tomorrow.

Yeah lol

[Astromanía]

Imagine to live in Revillagigedo islands, always being treatened by powerful cyclones almost every year. Those islands are the main target for cyclones in EPAC then is Mexico's west coast and even there are some years where non hurricane make landfall, live there must be a real caotic life, the good thing is that is a natural protected area and there is only a small population in Clarion island and in Socorro island, they must be prepared for those situations and they real help us to know the real intensity of cyclones that pass over them. Just a fun fact

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated trough of low pressure lying near the coast of
southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends several
hundred miles southward over the Pacific waters. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while moving
westward at 5 to 10 mph. Locally heavy rainfall is possible along
the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Tomorow's going to be madness.

You have the two above, plus 97L and 98L and a couple CPAC systems. All could be declared tomorrow.

This aged well.

[StruThiO]

EPAC does something!

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1174345413714993153

[Astromanía]

EPAC being active

[Kingarabian]

Chances of the EPAC going above average ACE wise are diminishing. The long tracker season is just about finished as we can see trough after trough dominate over the NPAC which will basically recurve any TC that develops, towards Mexico. We can still go above average based on named system if we get a flurry of storms in October and November.

[Astromanía]

I wonder if we will see a textbook category 5 hurricane in October this season even when it's unlikely

[Yellow Evan]

Chances of the EPAC going above average ACE wise are diminishing. The long tracker season is just about finished as we can see trough after trough dominate over the NPAC which will basically recurve any TC that develops, towards Mexico. We can still go above average based on named system if we get a flurry of storms in October and November.

To be fair the EPAC has had a very good month and ACE is at 92 now. Overall numbers should resemble 2017 at the end of the day so it could be worse.

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder if we will see a textbook category 5 hurricane in October this season even when it's unlikely

Those only are reserved for developing El Ninos generally.

[Kingarabian]

Chances of the EPAC going above average ACE wise are diminishing. The long tracker season is just about finished as we can see trough after trough dominate over the NPAC which will basically recurve any TC that develops, towards Mexico. We can still go above average based on named system if we get a flurry of storms in October and November.

To be fair the EPAC has had a very good month and ACE is at 92 now. Overall numbers should resemble 2017 at the end of the day so it could be worse.

Yeah September made this season a little more respectable. Especially with how bad June and August went. I think we're on pace to beat 2017.

[StruThiO]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for
significant development while it moves little, and this system is
expected to merge with a larger system to the east in a few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico late this week where environmental conditions
appear conducive for subsequent development. A tropical depression
could form over the weekend while the system moves near the southern
or the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of southern tip of the Baja California peninusla in
a couple of days. Some development is possible later this week while
the system moves erratically northward or northeastward, several
hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Astromanía]

Another active phase in September? the invest with 50% chance of development in 5 days could be another treat to Baja California, EPAC will surpass 2017 season on ACE soon, it doesn´t have been an active season but hey there have been systems worthed of watching and there is still some systems that will come the rest of September and maybe we could have also and active October and November but with dangerous systems to Mexico and Central America, I don´t know, it's unlikely but EPAC may have still a chance to reach above average season. Lol with Kiko beeing still there

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form within a couple hundred
miles of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. A
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

An elongated trough of low pressure is developing near the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico and is producing several clusters
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A low is expected to
form along this trough during the next couple of days, and it is
likely to become a tropical depression over the weekend or early
next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10
to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of
flash flooding and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of
Central America and southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

An elongated trough of low pressure near the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. A low is expected to form along this
trough during the next couple of days, and it is likely to become a
tropical depression over the weekend or early next week while it
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph near the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding
and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of Central America
and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Astromanía]

GFS has two systems affecting Mexico one as a major hurricnae, it weaken at landfall tho, in Manzanillo area and making a crossover to Gulf of Mexico and developing some after (I have my reservations about this), the other system is a minor hurricane that could smash Mexico as well in the same nearly area. If we get an active October Mexico will be in trouble with those systems recurving, as if Lorena and Narda weren´t enough, ACE will increase but with many life treatening.
First system

Landfall

Second system and a potential third system far from coast

[Astromanía]

GFS change the trayectory towards Sinaloa stronger

Affecting Baja California Peninsula

And making landfall near Culiacán area as a possible major hurricane, so this is needed to watch if develops, could be a very catastrophic storm, still many days to come to see what will happen

[Kingarabian]

Today's 12z Euro has 3 possible named systems forming in the next 10 days.

[Astromanía]

I think this season is over, at least for hurricanes , won´t it surpass 2017 season in terms of ACE right?