Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[gatorcane]

12 Euro saved loop, sharp recurve:

[SFLcane]

Very sensitive setup. GFS for now is the outlier of the 12z runs today. Ukmet is similar to the Euro.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Exceptionally poor consistency from the Euro.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1304122130997616642

[aspen]

Very sensitive setup. GFS for now is the outlier of the 12z runs today. Ukmet is similar to the Euro.

Let the windshield wiping commence. One day it’s a Caribbean Cruiser, the next it’s a recurve.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very sensitive setup. GFS for now is the outlier of the 12z runs today. Ukmet is similar to the Euro.

Seems to be a stronger Paulette would yield a weaker Rene, which has less of an interaction with "Sally" (or Teddy) to tug it north like that.

Euro does not show Paulette strengthening. While this may end up being the case, there's no reason it shouldn't as conditions look quite favorable. NHC forecast is also showing strengthening.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Very sensitive setup. GFS for now is the outlier of the 12z runs today. Ukmet is similar to the Euro.

Let the windshield wiping commence. One day it’s a Caribbean Cruiser, the next it’s a recurve.

And the truth is usually somewhere in between.

[TheStormExpert]

Exceptionally poor consistency from the Euro.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1304122130997616642

I follow him on Twitter and remember him on here and he seems to always have his own different opinions about things. Personally I wouldn’t say there was anything off with that run one bit. The wave moves slower, Rene loop southwestward, and it feels the weakness and lifts north.

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s the thing, if the GFS continues with its consistency then maybe that could be the go to model in terms of track as all the other models seem to be everywhere from run to run

[TheStormExpert]

Very sensitive setup. GFS for now is the outlier of the 12z runs today. Ukmet is similar to the Euro.

Seems to be a stronger Paulette would yield a weaker Rene, which has less of an interaction with "Sally" (or Teddy) to tug it north like that.

Euro does not show Paulette strengthening. While this may end up being the case, there's no reason it shouldn't as conditions look quite favorable. NHC forecast is also showing strengthening.

It’s interesting to note that both Paulette and Rene don’t look the best right now. One is sheared and the other lacks significant deep convection. Besides they’ve strengthened or gone back and forth but just not much. Maybe once they both get well north of the tropics then they’ll strengthen more.

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS split into two camps.....

1.) Recurve like the Operations (2/3 members)
2.) West like the GFS (1/3 members)

[aspen]

Very sensitive setup. GFS for now is the outlier of the 12z runs today. Ukmet is similar to the Euro.

Seems to be a stronger Paulette would yield a weaker Rene, which has less of an interaction with "Sally" (or Teddy) to tug it north like that.

Euro does not show Paulette strengthening. While this may end up being the case, there's no reason it shouldn't as conditions look quite favorable. NHC forecast is also showing strengthening.

Paulette is very likely to strengthen in a few days. It’s being blasted by 40 kt shear and is still remaining intact. The NHC mentioned that several models were showing shear dropping down to 10 kt or less by days 3-4, and with high SSTs and better diffluence, Paulette should be in a great spot to intensify into a hurricane. Rene, on the other hand, has been struggling for days, and I doubt it’ll become (or stay) significant enough to leave a large break in the ridge to catch Sally.

[SFLcane]

Exceptionally poor consistency from the Euro.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1304122130997616642

It may be wrong with the wave but not because it's wrong with Paulette. EPS was NE of 00z. Maybe the 06z trend was onto something

[DestinHurricane]

Models all over the place with different solutions.

GFS - Most straightforward solution. Straight on into caribbean with no rene interaction.

CMC - Moves due north after cabo verde

ICON - Has the wave heading towards caribbean but remnants of rene loops sw under a ridge and pick sally up.

EURO - Stronger rene loops sw and picks sally up.

[TheStormExpert]

Another curveball as mentioned is the 500mb pattern is VERY progressive right now. So if a ridge develops it will not stay for more than a few days, not to mention it seems as if the ridges are not very strong which allows them to weaken much easier.

[Aric Dunn]

Just like the last 5 million interactions between systems with the models this year... lets just envoke

Occam's Razor

and move on....

[TheStormExpert]

Models all over the place with different solutions.

GFS - Most straightforward solution. Straight on into caribbean with no rene interaction.

CMC - Moves due north after cabo verde

ICON - Has the wave heading towards caribbean but remnants of rene loops sw under a ridge and pick sally up.

EURO - Stronger rene loops sw and picks sally up.

You forgot the UKMET which I believe recurved it similar to the Euro.

[cheezyWXguy]

Very sensitive setup. GFS for now is the outlier of the 12z runs today. Ukmet is similar to the Euro.

Seems to be a stronger Paulette would yield a weaker Rene, which has less of an interaction with "Sally" (or Teddy) to tug it north like that.
Euro does not show Paulette strengthening. While this may end up being the case, there's no reason it shouldn't as conditions look quite favorable. NHC forecast is also showing strengthening.

It’s interesting to note that both Paulette and Rene don’t look the best right now. One is sheared and the other lacks significant deep convection. Besides they’ve strengthened or gone back and forth but just not much. Maybe once they both get well north of the tropics then they’ll strengthen more.

Neither is expected to be very strong right now. Conditions improve significantly for Paulette in about 3 days

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Exceptionally poor consistency from the Euro.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1304122130997616642

I follow him on Twitter and remember him on here and he seems to always have his own different opinions about things. Personally I wouldn’t say there was anything off with that run one bit. The wave moves slower, Rene loop southwestward, and it feels the weakness and lifts north.

Paulette is the key to Rene's intensity and ultimate influence on this system. There was a huge difference in intensity from the Euro in terms of Paulette from the 00z (tropical storm from major hurricane).

[Shell Mound]

Let’s just go with climatology and state that OTS is most likely (not guaranteed, but heavily favoured) at this point.

Paulette will hit Bermuda while en route OTS, Rene will head OTS, and this system will likely follow in the latter’s wake.

[DestinHurricane]

Let’s just go with climatology and state that OTS is most likely (not guaranteed, but heavily favoured) at this point.

Paulette will hit Bermuda while en route OTS, Rene will head OTS, and this system will likely follow in the latter’s wake.

What? Maybe just based on climo it's favored but climo doesn't control the storms path. About 1/3 of EPS members, the GFS, and most GEFS members bring this into Caribbean. The ones who don't don't because of an interaction with another TC.

Saying that a recurve is heavily favored is just not accurate when you look at the situation at hand.