Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

[MiamiensisWx]

Fortunately, we are finally receiving a consistent stream of reconnaissance obs. If I am correct, another system was utilized for this flight (feel free to offer the right answer). Regardless, it has implemented a smooth stream of data to the ground stations and TPC. The gap between land and tropical cyclone has diminished; I would expect some overland interaction to affect Dean, so the peak intensity could slowly diminish as the eye moves ashore near Chetumal and the bay. The final flight and successful data transmission may be too late for people on the Yucatan, but the information is better late than never!

[mtm4319]

[gotoman38]

sigh - where's Henk when we need him.

That file of his is the best!

[mtm4319]

[Normandy]

Hurricane force winds running just south of Cozumel.

[sponger]

Wow this is exciting. They are getting to the meat of the storm shortly.

[Normandy]

80 kts about 45-50 miles from the eyewall.
Cat2 conditions.

[mtm4319]

[sponger]

Edge of the inner core.

[Normandy]

96kt readings...major conditions outside the eyewall.

[mtm4319]

[mtm4319]

[Coredesat]

Just a side note, I'm also mapping recon in the main recon thread if you just want maps and data.

[mtm4319]

It's all yours now. I'm about to head to sleep.

[gotoman38]

I guess they were circling inside the eye looking for pressure?

[Scorpion]

No way an extrap of 905 and actual of 911 is correct.. perhaps the NHC didnt get the 905 by the time they put out the advisory

[WxGuy1]

No way an extrap of 905 and actual of 911 is correct.. perhaps the NHC didnt get the 905 by the time they put out the advisory

The "Update" that just came out puts the minimum central pressure at 909mb. I don't know much about the extrapolation technique used to estimate sfc pressure from flight-level height observations, so I'll leave that to someone who can explain that process (obviously, it could just be a temperature dependence for all I know).

[Sanibel]

000
URNT12 KNHC 210621
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 21/06:05:10Z
B. 18 deg 32 min N
086 deg 53 min W
C. 700 mb 2306 m
D. 144 kt
E. 030 deg 012 nm
F. 103 deg 156 kt
G. 030 deg 012 nm
H. 909 mb
I. 12 C/ 3045 m
J. 23 C/ 3051 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1504A DEAN OB 07
MAX FL WIND 156 KT N QUAD 05:48:20 Z

Wow. Sfc winds estimated at 144 knots.

[gotoman38]

Henk's file is back online

EDIT - well... it was... but it hasnt updated again.

2nd edit - it's updating now

[CrazyC83]

Will they fly into it again right when it re-emerges over water?