Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Brent]

Wow.

[KWT]

IMO, seems the models think the upper level conditions are favorable near the SE Bahamas, there may be the potential for a very strong system if it doesn't get disrupted by Hispaniola.

I think thats a fair comment, the ECM never actually makes it there but you can see it trying to reform something in the NW Caribbean towards the end as the system gets taken by the low level flow.

Whilst not strong, the ECM really takes it apart due to Hispaniola...AKA Emily style!

[SouthFLTropics]

[img]http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/4657/97l.jpg

Hold up, after further review, that's on top of me! I don't like that!!

IMO, to much stall time and to sharp of a N turn, wouldn't be suprised to see more of W bend into the EGOM, because run after run that ridge is not letting this system out w/o CONUS landfall.

Yeah...Not liking that at all. That is in our backyard!!!

[Vortex]

waitng on the 18Z GFS ensembles but wouldnt be surprised if at least the EGOM came into play in future runs...

[Vortex]

NWS Miami 2pm discussion:

.EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS NE ALLOWING FOR THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
BUILD N PLACING S FL IN A DEEP EASTERLY WIND FLOW

[cycloneye]

For those who are joining now and dont know this,recon is possible for Saturday afternoon to check this system.

3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
20/1800Z NEAR 15.0N 56.0W.

[pricetag56]

the pre season forecasts warned the SE would be at risk so u better wake up

[lonelymike]

Wait and see...wait and see...Not real convinced any of the models are getting a real handle on this..I've seen the GFS over the years want to destroy every town from Brownsville to Cape Cod with its erroneous runs...Euro hasn't done the best either and with the average track error at 300 plus miles five days out I can only imagine what the average track error is 10 days out.

But it does liven up the board a bit.

[Vortex]

For those who are joining now and dont know this,recon is possible for Saturday afternoon to check this system.

3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
20/1800Z NEAR 15.0N 56.0W.

Tells me NHC is ready to deploy all the toys if necessary...As usual Luis thanks for providing the board with the update.

[ConvergenceZone]

Here's when we need to be concerned:
If by this time tomorrow the GFS is STILL showing a decent hurricane slamming into the US
AND if the EURO is at least showing SOME development
AND if the tropical wave is tagged an Invest, and is looking better than it is today.

If all of the above are true tomorrow, I would start becomming very very concerned.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Agreed. I don't think any storms so far have done what the models depicted. When and if it's named I bet 100 pesos the models change drastically. I always say if the models have me wiped out 3 days away. I'm safe.

[KWT]

To be fair to the ECM the 12z run does remind meof a similar sort of system to Emily pre-Hispaniola, not the strongest of systems but wouldn't surprise me if it does end up with a TD/weak TS before Hispaniola if the 12z ECM came off...

Also probably a reforming TD/TS by 240hrs as well.

[Vortex]

Wait and see...wait and see...Not real convinced any of the models are getting a real handle on this..I've seen the GFS over the years want to destroy every town from Brownsville to Cape Cod with its erroneous runs...Euro hasn't done the best either and with the average track error at 300 plus miles five days out I can only imagine what the average track error is 10 days out.

But it does liven up the board a bit.

But when the GFS bends little on 10+ runs 5+ days out I've seen it hit several homeruns over the years and often in the ballpark when that consistent...IMO, I thinks its quite reasonable that we will have an intensifying storm in the bahamas next week..Add to that that both the GFS/ECM maintain enough ridging to allow for a potential stike on the US in later August, I'm paying close attention...

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO - 10%

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

FORECASTER PASCH

[lonelymike]

I agree Vort. But when the GFS strikes go from New Awlins to South Carolina ya kinda gotta wonder. Just sayin

Anyways I'm hopin for a TX strike so Rock can get out of the sewer

Just needlin ya Rock.

[Brent]

8 PM TWO - 10%

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

Finally...

[cycloneye]

Now expect invest at anytime.

[Vortex]

In nearly 10 years Luis I dont think ive beaten you too the punch once

[RL3AO]

Now expect invest at anytime.

Would be around 0030 to 0045 is usually when ATCF gets updated.

[KWT]

I think its not going to take long for this to get invested...

not expecting that quick of a development with this one, think its still maybe 3-4 days away, so much slower then the GFS IMO...