Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Hurricaneman]

I'm not sure what's going on now. The ENSO is cool Neutral, Vertical instability is at its highest point in who knows when, wind shear is below average, sea surface temperatures are above average, the Intertropical Convergence Zone is higher north in latitude than normal, the Gulf of Guinea and Indian Ocean are cooler relative to average, the African monsoon season has been wetter than normal, there has been little Saharan Air Layer, and a strong MJO pulse is amplifying across much of the Atlantic. Yet it's late August and the global models show nothing noteworthy. I don't understand it. We're missing something very important, and obviously very effect, given the lack of activity. If we don't see a big burst in activity in early September, seasonal forecasts will bust.

I agree and am very surprised at how the global models don't show much at all developing out there in the next 2 weeks. Something must be missing. Usually around this time of year, the globals are showing at least one big storm developing. Nothing is really even consistently in fantasy range either. So weird.

either that or all the models will be wrong but seeing how the season has gone so far I wouldn't bet on that

[Cyclenall]

ACE currently sits at 31% of normal in the Atlantic. In the next few days we are likely going to drop below 30%. This would make the Atlantic the quietest basin in the globe relative to average regarding this matter.

Wow, that is just unreal. What is the current quietest basin in the globe relative to average? And then about the MJO, its very well defined in the Epac and all there is, is 1 invest...

My thoughts on activity as the heart of the season is basically here is this is a complete joke. This is -AMO during an El Nino level of bad. The awful and what I thought was one of the lamest hurricane seasons that I've known...2012...even had 9 named storms by now, and 3 hurricanes! We were tracking Isaac right now, instead we are tracking SAL conditions and the MJO. Another stunner, 2009 had a category 4 hurricane by now that was already finished this day 4 years ago! August is of course finished for me and September really needs to become record breaking for every category for this season to redeem. If its anything below that, its likely done.

Here is the order in which various stats are from most ridiculous to least corresponding to this season: No Hurricanes in the Atlantic, ACE Atlantic, No Major Hurricanes in either the Epac or Atlantic, No Majors in just the Atlantic, and No Major Hurricane Landfalls on the US mainland since Hurricane Wilma in 2005 to date. I'll check again September 2 to see where these stats stand.

[tolakram]

The models know why they aren't developing storms. I know that sounds flippant, but they are picking up on what is missing, otherwise they would be developing more phantom systems.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a great analog for this 2013 North Atlantic season is the 2002 season that had 12/4/2

[Hurricaneman]

Well look at it this way, its still better than 1914 with a complete season of just 1\0\0. I wonder how people around here would handle that

[tolakram]

Maybe a great analog for this 2013 North Atlantic season is the 2002 season that had 12/4/2

That ended with an el nino, which is why I'm clinging to a higher numbers prediction. So yea, similar to 2002 but lasting longer. We'll know all in just 12 weeks.

[Hammy]

Maybe a great analog for this 2013 North Atlantic season is the 2002 season that had 12/4/2

That ended with an el nino, which is why I'm clinging to a higher numbers prediction. So yea, similar to 2002 but lasting longer. We'll know all in just 12 weeks.

even 2002 had a few storms on the verge of development at this point.

[ninel conde]

im liking the 1993 hurricane season 8/4/1. in that season the rain never stopped in the central states, this season its been an east coast flood pattern.

this might sound ridiculous but maybe the pattern that has lasted 4 years now has just worn itself out. maybe next season we will see a trough firmly in place in the central US and locked in high pressure over new england. i strongly think we need to see a major pattern realignment for next season.

[Hammy]

im liking the 1993 hurricane season 8/4/1. in that season the rain never stopped in the central states, this season its been an east coast flood pattern.

1993 is not really a good comparison for the simple fact it was an El Nino year. I'm honestly at a loss for a comparison year at this point as, if the models play out, the quiet seems to be defying all conventional logic.

[Ntxw]

Wow, that is just unreal. What is the current quietest basin in the globe relative to average? And then about the MJO, its very well defined in the Epac and all there is, is 1 invest...

The current quietest is the Atlantic basin. It took this honor the last 2 weeks as the average ACE for the Atlantic is rapidly rising (towards peak). With the fact there is no significant large system forecasted right now on the horizon, the rapidly rising ACE average is going to continue widening the gap. And it just magnifies the effect as the basin the lowest in a period where all basins are well below average.

[ninel conde]

lets not forget the tornado season was also well below normal, and as TWC pointed out it was largely due to the wnw flow blocking gulf moisture. you can only tread the same water over and over again for so long.

[Cyclenall]

Well look at it this way, its still better than 1914 with a complete season of just 1\0\0. I wonder how people around here would handle that

People wouldn't be here. We would handle it by not tracking the tropics anymore. There might be a few analyzing why and doing a bit of research but that would be it. If there was an active season preceding it, it would be like now only 1/8th of us would still be reading and posting. Also, I wonder if 1914 actually had 1/0/0 for real.

this might sound ridiculous but maybe the pattern that has lasted 4 years now has just worn itself out. maybe next season we will see a trough firmly in place in the central US and locked in high pressure over new england. i strongly think we need to see a major pattern realignment for next season.

That's what I said and thought after the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[CrazyC83]

Well look at it this way, its still better than 1914 with a complete season of just 1\0\0. I wonder how people around here would handle that

People wouldn't be here. We would handle it by not tracking the tropics anymore. There might be a few analyzing why and doing a bit of research but that would be it. If there was an active season preceding it, it would be like now only 1/8th of us would still be reading and posting. Also, I wonder if 1914 actually had 1/0/0 for real.

this might sound ridiculous but maybe the pattern that has lasted 4 years now has just worn itself out. maybe next season we will see a trough firmly in place in the central US and locked in high pressure over new england. i strongly think we need to see a major pattern realignment for next season.

That's what I said and thought after the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

2009 was widely expected to be inactive, especially in the second half, though.

[hurricanes1234]

My forecast for September would call for 2-5 named storms, 1-2 hurricanes, and one major hurricane, if at all. If there is a major hurricane in that month, I just can't see it peaking above 115 or 120 mph. The other storms, to me, would most probably be minimal storms and probably one Category 1, if any at all. For October, I would only anticipate a maximum of 3-4 named storms, with one Category 1 or 2 fitted in somewhere, but no major hurricanes. For November, I would forecast only 1 named storm (2 maximum), and no hurricanes. The strongest or only storm of that month might be a 60-65 mph tropical storm, and the other, a weak 40-45 mph storm. This may end around early to mid-November, but by November 30th, all activity should have long ceased.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

ACE currently sits at 31% of normal in the Atlantic. In the next few days we are likely going to drop below 30%. This would make the Atlantic the quietest basin in the globe relative to average regarding this matter.

For those following the MJO, it's pretty well defined and moving through EPAC and W Atlantic.

http://i39.tinypic.com/ojmqfa.gif

Do you think the lack of El Nino for the past 4 years has cause the heat to go away from the Tropics?

[CrazyC83]

ACE currently sits at 31% of normal in the Atlantic. In the next few days we are likely going to drop below 30%. This would make the Atlantic the quietest basin in the globe relative to average regarding this matter.

For those following the MJO, it's pretty well defined and moving through EPAC and W Atlantic.

http://i39.tinypic.com/ojmqfa.gif

Do you think the lack of El Nino for the past 4 years has cause the heat to go away from the Tropics?

SST's don't seem to be the issue. Lows simply aren't forming.

[Ntxw]

ACE currently sits at 31% of normal in the Atlantic. In the next few days we are likely going to drop below 30%. This would make the Atlantic the quietest basin in the globe relative to average regarding this matter.

For those following the MJO, it's pretty well defined and moving through EPAC and W Atlantic.

http://i39.tinypic.com/ojmqfa.gif

Do you think the lack of El Nino for the past 4 years has cause the heat to go away from the Tropics?

It could be. I have not done a lot of research or seen many papers regarding the long term states of ENSO and global energy budget. One of our poster Andrew92 put some information that year after El Nino modoki puts out some strong systems. 2004, 2005, 1998, and 1995 are the four big ACE years, all four following El Nino's and not Ninas. There has to be some connection right? I'm sure the +AMO is keeping the numbers up but one has to question without the tropical Pacific, is it holding down global ACE?

Edit: The last good ACE season for the Atlantic was 2010 which was after the 2009 El Nino. You could argue it was a Nina year and Ninas produce hurricanes even 1998, but that doesn't explain 2005, 2004, and 1995.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This is also why hurricane seasons that come off El Ninos and rapidly transition to La Ninas are so favorable: heat has been added back into the tropics and atmospheric conditions are simultaneously favorable for development. 2010 is one such example.

[Ptarmigan]

People wouldn't be here. We would handle it by not tracking the tropics anymore. There might be a few analyzing why and doing a bit of research but that would be it. If there was an active season preceding it, it would be like now only 1/8th of us would still be reading and posting. Also, I wonder if 1914 actually had 1/0/0 for real.

I think 1914 had more storms than recorded. It was also El Nino by winter of 1914-1915.

[ConvergenceZone]

What a crazy season. I can't remember the last time it's been this silent when getting ready to go into the first week of September. I had lowered my numbers some, but I had expected it to get really active the last week of August. Now it looks like will have to lower numbers quite a bit more. It's hard to believe a month from Sunday it will be October. I wonder if 2013 will go down as the season that wasn't?? .....