Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Alyono]

so models dont think have chance in Caribbean but nhc think it do so maybe the nhc private models do see sme thing with this area in carribbean

for the 3rd time... NHC LOWERED THE 5 DAY PROBABILITIES. They are saying there is a 90 percent chance of no development through 5 days. Some are reading too much into the subjective text and ignoring the objective numbers

[floridasun78]

so models dont think have chance in Caribbean but nhc think it do so maybe the nhc private models do see sme thing with this area in carribbean

for the 3rd time... NHC LOWERED THE 5 DAY PROBABILITIES. They are saying there is a 90 percent chance of no development through 5 days. Some are reading too much into the subjective text and ignoring the objective numbers

you read nhc outlook here what say :CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

[Alyono]

so models dont think have chance in Caribbean but nhc think it do so maybe the nhc private models do see sme thing with this area in carribbean

for the 3rd time... NHC LOWERED THE 5 DAY PROBABILITIES. They are saying there is a 90 percent chance of no development through 5 days. Some are reading too much into the subjective text and ignoring the objective numbers

you read nhc outlook here what say :CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

I'll stick to the objective facts while you can have subjective statements.

We need to read the ENTIRE product, not just the parts that are favorable for development. The overall TDO indicates there is less chance of something forming than there was previously. To say otherwise is wrong

[floridasun78]

let see chance go up at 2am

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

-snip-

2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR
ALOFT. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THESE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1012 MB LOW EXTENDS AN AXIS
FROM 18N50W TO THE LOW NEAR 15N52W TO 11N54W AND MOVES W-NW NEAR
10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW A HIGH MOIST
ENVIRONMENT NE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS COINCIDE WITH THE AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE AND ARE
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

[Gustywind]

As Pouch 25L approaches the Eastern Carib, our pro mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe said today in their latest weather forecast 5AM that "trade winds are low to moderate becoming more moist and unstable at the front of an active tropical wave. The weather conditions are expected to be bad until the middle of next week and a vigilance is under consideration. Follow carefully our next weather forecasts".

So, let's keep an eye on this feature.

[cycloneye]

Some convection covering low pressure.

[ROCK]

instability increasing or you wouldnt have this blowing up convection. if it maintains today, grows and develops the CMC will have destroyed any credibility left in the GFS....

[SFLcane]

[Hurricaneman]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tcmovieFinal.gif

Seeing this map the center is at 14.5N 54W and under that tongue of convection, and it also seems as though that blob to the NE of the center is moving towards the center so this may have a slim chance before the islands but after that is an unknown IMO

[CrazyC83]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/tcmovieFinal.gif

Seeing this map the center is at 14.5N 54W and under that tongue of convection, and it also seems as though that blob to the NE of the center is moving towards the center so this may have a slim chance before the islands but after that is an unknown IMO

There's about 50 knots of shear over it too right now, it is sitting in the worst conditions in the entire Atlantic basin pretty much! If it goes northwest and past 20N, shear drops to almost nothing (the earlier CMC model runs may have been on to something there). But it seems to be following the shear axis westward...not going to develop on that.

[cycloneye]

Some increasing vorticity at 850mb.

[caneman]

instability increasing or you wouldnt have this blowing up convection. if it maintains today, grows and develops the CMC will have destroyed any credibility left in the GFS....

Surely you jest. Boy you really don't like the GFS. How desperate has the season become when we latch on to every single CMC or NAM model for hope. Given that success rate of genesis for models is in the 15% range, I'm not sure that any model would stand out. I would prolly have better luck just looking at Sat. images and guessing.

[HurricaneDREW92]

If it continues wrapping around like it is now...dev. chances may go up at 2pm.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Looking MUCH better:


WRF Model @ 72hrs


Wouldn't be surprised to see it back up at either 10/20 or 0/20. Thoughts?

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 97L. Go to active storms invests forum to the Invest 97L - Discussion thread.