2014 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extends for several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico and Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to
form in a couple of days within this region of disturbed weather
south of the coast of Mexico, and conditions appear favorable for
this system to become a tropical cyclone by late this weekend or
early next week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[stormcruisin]

[Yellow Evan]

Formation



Peak over the GOC



Landfall, this time on La Paz. Reminds me of Ignacio 03.



Elida

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extends for several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico and Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to
form by this weekend within this region of disturbed weather south
of the coast of Mexico, and conditions appear favorable for this
system to become a tropical cyclone by early next week while it
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS formation



Landfall/Peak just south of San Blas




12z GFS ensemble keeps it much further west.



Oh CMC



Peak



Douglas and Elida



Peak



Euro shows this for Douglas



CFS ensembles hint at a lot of spread. But the tracks are in two main camps. a Nw or NNE one. Have a feeling the NW one will be right.



Looking ahead, we may have to watch the WDR towards the end of the month.



Likely a Kelvin Wave there similar to last year, where we got 3 quick storms there.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms extend for
several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico and
Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to form within
this region of disturbed weather over the weekend, and conditions
appear favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone early
next week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

Formation



Peak



Landfall



Over La Paz

[Yellow Evan]

Hope no one minds I continue posting these.

But for the 0z run.



Brings it near Baja in July as a Cat 2. Not sure if I buy this. I almost get that feeling that somehow this won't form.



Landfall



Elida

[stormcruisin]

These systems i tend to think are reliant on the MJO signal in the first week of july.

[cycloneye]

From the 10:05 UTC TWD:

CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...AN AREA OF LOW
PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THIS REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TRYING TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET KEEP A WEAK LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE EASTERLY SHEAR DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms extend for
several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico and
Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to form within
this region of disturbed weather over the weekend, and conditions
appear favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone early
next week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for development during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has shifted way to the left. Now bring it to the 960 range but keep it offshore. CMc has it going WNW. I think it's due to the fact we have a LLC now.

[cycloneye]

We have Invest 96E.

[TheAustinMan]

It's going to be very interesting to see what kind of results this entails (mean sea level pressure and winds model from GFS):

[hurricanes1234]

That Fujiwhara loop is very funny (thanks for sharing). Do you think this will happen? I am not sure.

[Yellow Evan]

It's going to be very interesting to see what kind of results this entails (mean sea level pressure and winds model from GFS):

Elida



Fausto

[cycloneye]

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers extends
several hundred miles south of Central America and southeastern
Mexico. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the East Pacific wants to keep out running the Atlantic with already 3 NS's, 2 H's, 2MH's, and now 2 Areas of Interest likely to become storms in the near term.

While the Atlantic has roughly managed to produce 1 Invest, and now another Area of Interest.

[Kingarabian]

What I see with this setup in regards to those two invests, is a reminisce of Felicia and Enrique in 2009. Of course these two systems are further East.

Of course one of these systems are going to have to give to the other. I see one storm becoming dominant and the other mediocre. Doubt they collectively become strong together.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]