2016 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

The outbreak continues.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/752576135792238593

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF is right there with the GFS showing the EPAC cyclone engine in full force. After Celia exits the EPAC (not shown in image) look at the cyclones/lows behind it lining up:

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico later this week. Some subsequent
development of this newly formed system is likely while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/752883799940136960

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for this
system to become a tropical depression over the weekend while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

Looks like the outbreak will stop very soon.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/752940258266755072

[Yellow Evan]

EPS ensembles hint at 2-3 more storms in the next 15 days.

[Alyono]

outbreak probably won't stop

the formation location is shifting south of the upwelled waters

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the south and
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
this system to become a tropical depression over the weekend while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[gatorcane]

EPAC outbreak continues on the 18z GFS

[Yellow Evan]

full res version at 204 hours

[Kingarabian]

Astonishing that Hawaii is getting threatened despite a soon to be Cool Neutral/La Nina.

[stormwise]

Its a hurricane bonanza out there, the most active basin across the pacific and the models just keep pumping storms out.

[NDG]

The only hurricane threat that I see for Hawaii so far is in models' fantasies, I have lost count.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the south and
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical
wave. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of
days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for the low to
become a tropical depression over the weekend while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave have
increased to the south and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
since yesterday. An area of low pressure is expected to form during
the next couple of days, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for the low to become a tropical depression over the
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave have
continued to increase several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico. An area of low pressure is expected to form during
the next day or so, and environmental conditions appear conducive
for the low to become a tropical depression by the weekend while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

Invest 98E is up

[gatorcane]

Even at the end of the run, the EPAC continues to show several storms

[HurricaneRyan]

The EPAC better enjoy the storms while they last.