Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[gatorcane]

More north too, approaching Jamiaca and intensifying

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Sigh, it's another UKMET/GFS/CMC vs ECMWF scenario again.

[PTrackerLA]

Jamaica could be in trouble this run. Also a much more pronounced upper low in the GOM unlike the 12z run, I doubt it gets buried into CA this time.

[SeGaBob]

Recurve I bet.

[gatorcane]

Ridge right over the Bahamas preventing a recurve in the Cental Caribbean

[gatorcane]

Looks like a direct landfall on Jamiaca at 216 hours

[Alyono]

This one makes Gilbert, Ivan, and Dean look like weak tropical storms at Jamaica

[Alyono]

well, it then flattens Cayman, Cuba, and then despite being at the low resolution, is still showing a cat 5 coming to Texas

[toad strangler]

18z GFS with a HUGE monster cane in the W Gulf. Fantasy range of course.

[sma10]

Just your typical 912mb enormously large hurricane moving north towards Houston/Galveston Bay. Nothing to see here.

[toad strangler]

Recurves at the end and destroys NO

[PTrackerLA]

912mb in the western GOM in October, I don't think that's even possible .

Oh and the eye passes over my house on this run. Ok next run please!

[PTrackerLA]

18z GFS peak strength in Gulf for entertainment only:

[Emmett_Brown]

Wow! That GFS run certainly would churn up the gulf!

[toad strangler]

912mb in the western GOM in October, I don't think that's even possible .

Oh and the eye passes over my house on this run. Ok next run please!

Ahhhhhh yes, the ol 384 hr bullseye

[stormlover2013]

Oh it's possible, there has been I think 10 storms hit Texas in October...never say never and sw la

[toad strangler]

I don't remember ever seeing such a huge modeled cane like the 18z GFS fantasy range or not.

[sma10]

Please don't accuse me of fear-mongering because I realize how absurd this run is likely to be. But in all seriousness, this would be ridiculously disastrous for NO. As opposed to Katrina, this time they would get the "bad" side of the surge of a slow-moving, monstrously large Category 5. I mean this sincerely when I say - please be wrong as usual GFS.

[cajungal]

Please don't accuse me of fear-mongering because I realize how absurd this run is likely to be. But in all seriousness, this would be ridiculously disastrous for NO. As opposed to Katrina, this time they would get the "bad" side of the surge of a slow-moving, monstrously large Category 5. I mean this sincerely when I say - please be wrong as usual GFS.

Well I live 60 miles southwest of New Orleans. In Lafourche Parish. There would be nothing left.

[blp]

Not that it means anything considering its lower tier status but the NAVGEM is finally picking up on development.