2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Dean4Storms]

Crap, do't like the 12 ECM run. Looks like a TS landfall near PCB this weekend and it shows winds east of the center gusting between 50-60mph. Scratching my head!

I don’t see a TS, just a very weak low that forms off the tail end of the front.

Well it puts a band of winds over Panama City gusting to 59.1mph. on the North to SE Quad and depicts a closed Low moving ashore PC.

[ronjon]

Not a ton of model support but we have CMC, GFS, and NAVGEM on board with western Caribbean development in about a week or so.

[Dean4Storms]

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/bay/gusts-3h-mph/20180609-1800z.html

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a closed Low to me....

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/bay/windspeed-streamlines/20180609-1800z.html

[Dean4Storms]

Up to 50% ECM EPS Probability in the NE Gulf by the weekend of Tropical Depression.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Models are back on board. Gfs showing a high end tropical storm and ecmwf now showing a medium tropical storm. Going to be a very interesting week. Panama City Beach and the Big Bend looks like the favored landfall location. Alberto’s twin Beryl might be coming to visit the big bend of FL.

[MississippiWx]

Models are back on board. Gfs showing a high end tropical storm and ecmwf now showing a medium tropical storm. Going to be a very interesting week. Panama City Beach and the Big Bend looks like the favored landfall location. Alberto’s twin Beryl might be coming to visit the big bend of FL.

The European and GFS are showing two completely different areas. I wouldn’t even call what the European is showing much of a development at all. Looks like it tries to develop a weak low from a stalled boundary over the Northern Gulf. The GFS is still showing a storm impacting the Gulf States in the 228-240 hour time frame. Still not much to see here.

I will say the weak low development from a stalled frontal boundary would be much more believable at this point.

[northjaxpro]

Well now, how things have changed in 12 hours. Now, we have a few other models backing up the GFS of potential Beryl moving out of the NW Caribbean, which it has consistently been showing for the past week. It is looking more and more that this will NOT be a phantom. The major significant change is that the GFS 18Z run this afternoon is showing a potential landfall on the Florida panhandle on 6/15. The earlier GFS runs had landfall around June 12 or so.

[floridasun78]

are we tend north gulf coast getting tropical systems in June in 2018

[CyclonicFury]

00z GFS once again showing development of a tropical storm over the NW Caribbean by the middle of next week.

[WeatherEmperor]

00z GFS once again showing development of a tropical storm over the NW Caribbean by the middle of next week.

Here it is




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[Aric Dunn]

00z GFS once again showing development of a tropical storm over the NW Caribbean by the middle of next week.

yep, and so far it is more well defiend and the origin is very clear from the monsoon trough and a tropical wave in the SW carrib. it is pretty interesting for the last week it has stuck to around the 10th or 11th..

[chaser1]

Quite interesting, huh? Genesis now suddenly not out in "fantasy land" frame of time. 1004mb showing up in about 162 hrs. Will be interesting to see whether there will be continued run to run consistency. Even more interesting to see if/when EURO chimes in as well.

[NDG]

Much stronger on this run.

[Aric Dunn]

wow begins to rapidly intensify in central gulf..

[Aric Dunn]

ICON 171 hour....

[chaser1]

204 hr. and I swear I could be looking at my TEVO set to pause on Alberto

[chaser1]

Given how much deeper and better defined the GFS is showing this system, especially well within the wheel-house time frame of the EURO.... i'd be a bit surprised if the EURO didnt begin to latch onto some level of genesis. Would be especially curious what the UK might soon be sniffing out as well. The UK handled Alberto especially well I thought.

[Steve]

Not that it matters but whatever tv-house model David Bernard ran on Fox 8 at 6:00pm (they have VIPR and RPM I think), showed a closed low/depression looking system in the NEGulf by the weekend looked like some enhanced rain for the Big Bend and up into the SE if it pans out.

[Dylan]

0z GFS and ICON definitely raise an eyebrow. Yesterday’s CMC also showed a similar solution. Will be watching!