Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Hurricaneman]

It’s possible that the models are doing the classic drop the system only to being it back the next day or 2 in the model runs so it looks like the models are starting to bring this back

[Aric Dunn]

It’s possible that the models are doing the classic drop the system only to being it back the next day or 2 in the model runs so it looks like the models are starting to bring this back

yes,
just like my previous longer post.. it depends on where/if we get a defined circ and sustained convection. so if this happens slightly farther north so less land interaction then models will almost certainly shift..

just go and compare the 12z euro initialized closed wind field far south along the coast.. and now farther north with little land interaction.

pretty straight forward.

[Aric Dunn]

this euro run is probably the most realistic i have seen yet. pretty much what the CMC has been doing for 2 days lol .

[Hurricaneman]

this euro run is probably the most realistic i have seen yet. pretty much what the CMC has been doing for 2 days lol .

Looking at the Euro if the trough erodes the ridge quicker then Florida gets something but if the opposite happens it goes to Texas.

Looking right now it seems the eddy we were following may become the main center and it does look like it’s now organizing better now

[Aric Dunn]

this euro run is probably the most realistic i have seen yet. pretty much what the CMC has been doing for 2 days lol .

Looking at the Euro if the trough erodes the ridge quicker then Florida gets something but if the opposite happens it goes to Texas.

Looking right now it seems the eddy we were following may become the main center and it does look like it’s now organizing better now

I just cant wait to read all the flip-flopper posts from the last couple model runs when they see the 00z euro lol

ridge built back in.. might go to upper texas coast this run.

edit.

nope turned ne.. most realistic run thus far from the gfs/euro feud..

[Hammy]

this euro run is probably the most realistic i have seen yet. pretty much what the CMC has been doing for 2 days lol .

Looking at the Euro if the trough erodes the ridge quicker then Florida gets something but if the opposite happens it goes to Texas.

Looking right now it seems the eddy we were following may become the main center and it does look like it’s now organizing better now

I just cant wait to read all the flip-flopper posts from the last couple model runs when they see the 00z euro lol

ridge built back in.. might go to upper texas coast this run.

edit.

nope turned ne.. most realistic run thus far from the gfs/euro fued..

Euro did it's trick again--had something out at 8-10 days, dropped it (it seems this time like the models this time were realigning where the storm would develop/how the ridging would play out) and now it's back and shifted west. Did the same with Gordon days before development before dropping and shifting east (and seems to love doing this with the Gulf in particular.)

[TheStormExpert]

00z EPS Ensembles. Definitely an uptick from yesterday's 12z ensembles.



Peaks @ 988mbs.

[SFLcane]

Definitely an uptick there in the 00z euro ensembles also most over Florida implying a N.E. movement after moving into the gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

Definitely an uptick there in the 00z euro ensembles also most over Florida implying a N.E. movement after moving into the gulf.

Also most are east of the operational run.

[ronjon]

Models seem to be converging on western caribbean cyclogenesis with ICON, ECM, CMC, NAVY, NAM all generally with a similar solution of a TD forming and moving north into the GOM where some strengthening happens. The oddball is GFS with FV3 forming in the straits and strengthening in the GOM and the GFS not forming at all but moisture surge moving north from the western caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

Still nothing from the GFS as of 06z.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1047795589352587264

[GCANE]

Judging by the rotation in the lightning strikes, it appears a vortical hot tower maybe firing off.

[blp]

Guess who decided to wake up. The Ukie has it now though still on the left side heading to Texas. At least it now shows cyclogenesis happening in the same area.

[ronjon]

Still nothing from the GFS as of 06z.

hahaha..just think when GFS is discontinued next year if that had already occured. We'd all be saying...ah...we have consensus from all global models.

[NDG]

00z EPS Ensembles. Definitely an uptick from yesterday's 12z ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/CXxnTL4.png

Peaks @ 988mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/Os13CSB.png

And a little better agreement between the ensembles on where cyclogenesis will occur and general track heading. The last few days they were all over the place.

[ronjon]

Looks like we're setting up for a classic climatological path for early October based on latest model trends. Unknowns now are ultimate strength and of course track 5-7 days from now.

[TheStormExpert]

Guess who decided to wake up. The Ukie has it now though still on the left side heading to Texas. At least it now shows cyclogenesis happening in the same area.

https://image.ibb.co/eqz3pK/ukm2_2018100900_120_lant_troplant_prp_fcst_gentracker.png

Gotta love the UKMET and it’s left bias. Still with it coming around to something getting going in the NW Caribbean and heading into the Gulf, I think we are starting to develop a model consensus.

[TheStormExpert]

Still nothing from the GFS as of 06z.

hahaha..just think when GFS is discontinued next year if that had already occured. We'd all be saying...ah...we have consensus from all global models.

Hopefully the FV3-GFS gets some improving before it takes over next year, but it may deserve some credit for being one of the few global models to show development in the Gulf.

[stormlover2013]

Going to be fun to watch, will we see a front come through, how strong will trough be, what about the ridge in se, tons at play weird season