2019 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#561 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:55 am

Sniffing out long range.

00z

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06z

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#562 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:59 am

Next 5 names on the list.

Hagibis
Neoguri
Bualoi
Matmo
Halong
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#563 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:20 am

With the GFS dropping the model storm just after Mitag, I think it's safe to say it's probably a phantom storm. Now, I'd watch the long range to see if it has some consistent activity, the development start hour decreases every latest run and if other models like Euro joins in.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#564 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:13 am

GFS liking around the 10th for our next TC or TC's?. Varying solutions on this one.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#565 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:34 pm

WPac ACE from March through September this season ranks 45th out of 50 for years 1970-2019.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#566 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:09 am

Also, it's October. Can JTWC please release last year's finalized best track data now?
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#567 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:10 am

00Z GFS is a fun run in the extended range.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#568 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:32 pm

Image


In the western Pacific, models depict a broad area of low pressure to the east of the Mariana Islands which may result in tropical low developing in the region towards the end of Week-1, and another low forming during the earlier portion Week-2. Latest deterministic guidance shows the potential for rapid deepening of theses lows while tracking westward into the Philippine Sea.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#569 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:17 pm

92W thread

Our phantom storm is back and the models are quite strong with it.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#570 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:18 pm

Looking like EURO and GFS has one storm following behind.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#571 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:28 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Also, it's October. Can JTWC please release last year's finalized best track data now?

I should have posted this sooner. : P
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#572 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:40 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Also, it's October. Can JTWC please release last year's finalized best track data now?

I should have posted this sooner. : P

Ah, JTWC released last year's finalized best track data just now. Probably you are a prophet.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#573 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:29 am

92W was dropped from BT.

EURO and GFS still has a significant TC developing after and before it passes the Marianas. Both focusing on the area around 160E.

GFS strengthens this significantly while EURO is a lot less.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#574 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:55 pm

93W Thread

Redesignated.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#575 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:38 am

Conflicting scenarios between EURO and GFS on the next train.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#576 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:36 pm

GFS continues to develop another monster typhoon east of the Marianas. Timeframe closing in (120).

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#577 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:36 am

Image

Anytime now.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#578 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 04, 2019 7:13 am

Timeframe closer.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#579 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:44 am

The globals all agree on GFS's second twin but keeps it weak. In fact, GFS is also weaker on it.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#580 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:31 pm

What a bummer. After days of showing a pair of twins, GFS has finally given up on it.
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