2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#561 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Jun 06, 2022 5:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:GFS really blew it with the hurricane that was supposed to be striking the northern Gulf coast in May. I don't trust it now. Euro has nothing in the next 10 days, which seems more likely.

I do agree the GFS is not reliable and tends to overdo these early season CAG storms,
on the other side of the coin the Euro has missed genesis of storms multiple times in
the last few years. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks.

Category5Kaiju · #562 Postby **Category5Kaiju** » Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:08 pm

Ok…according to the recent GEFS ensembles, the Gulf of Mexico experiences a major volcanic eruption (lots of “orange lava” hehe) by next week. :lol:

#563 Postby **OuterBanker** » Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:34 pm

Don't see anything happening next couple weeks. GFS today has persisted in a spin up in the BOC at the end of the run. Nothing happening off seus coast either. All lows exit north of Delmarva no exiting lows or trough splits off seus coast. Think it will be clear most if not all of the rest of June.

IcyTundra · #564 Postby **IcyTundra** » Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:02 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Don't see anything happening next couple weeks. GFS today has persisted in a spin up in the BOC at the end of the run. Nothing happening off seus coast either. All lows exit north of Delmarva no exiting lows or trough splits off seus coast. Think it will be clear most if not all of the rest of June.

I think you are jumping the gun a bit we have 24 days left in June. I'm not expecting anything strong but I wouldn't be surprised by 1-2 weak spinups in the gulf/BOC.

skyline385 · #565 Postby **skyline385** » Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:02 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Ok…according to the recent GEFS ensembles, the Gulf of Mexico experiences a major volcanic eruption (lots of “orange lava” hehe) by next week.

oh wow, and I though the 6Z one was crazy. GEFS has gone nuts :lol:

LarryWx · #566 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:37 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Ok…according to the recent GEFS ensembles, the Gulf of Mexico experiences a major volcanic eruption (lots of “orange lava” hehe) by next week.

oh wow, and I though the 6Z one was crazy. GEFS has gone nuts

https://i.imgur.com/byV7ZS0.png

Well, remember that this is the infamous GEFS "Happy Hour" run. GEFS may have had a few too many. :lol:

Seriously though, sometimes the 18Z GEFS goes a bit overboard vs the other runs in the GOM and/or W Caribbean. I don't know the reason. Let's see whether or not the next few runs are less active.

skyline385 · #567 Postby **skyline385** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 11:39 am

Its going at it again, going to be an interesting 12Z run

#568 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 11:39 am

12z GFS begins development in SW Caribbean on day 7.

DorkyMcDorkface · #569 Postby **DorkyMcDorkface** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 11:44 am

cycloneye wrote:12z GFS begins development in SW Caribbean on day 7.

https://i.imgur.com/bjPLCdH.png

Seems like another boguscane spawned from the Venezuelan steam of vorticity. Unless other models jump on it I would disregard it for now.

aspen · #570 Postby **aspen** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 11:50 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z GFS begins development in SW Caribbean on day 7.

https://i.imgur.com/bjPLCdH.png

Seems like another boguscane spawned from the Venezuelan steam of vorticity. Unless other models jump on it I would disregard it for now.

That, and the time frame has moved back a bit. But it kinda seems like this precursor vorticity is associated with the western edge of a CAG, so maybe there’s a real source the GFS is picking up on.

#571 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 11:52 am

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z GFS begins development in SW Caribbean on day 7.

https://i.imgur.com/bjPLCdH.png

Seems like another boguscane spawned from the Venezuelan steam of vorticity. Unless other models jump on it I would disregard it for now.

Agreed. If ECMWF jumps in, then is game on.

#572 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 11:58 am

GFS looks very similar to what it was doing the first week of May. Big hurricane coming out of the CAG and into the Gulf in the 12-16 day time frame. It has that issue every year this time of year. Let's see what other models indicate when it gets in the 7-10 day time frame.

skyline385 · #573 Postby **skyline385** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z GFS begins development in SW Caribbean on day 7.

https://i.imgur.com/bjPLCdH.png

Seems like another boguscane spawned from the Venezuelan steam of vorticity. Unless other models jump on it I would disregard it for now.

Agreed. If ECMWF jumps in, then is game on.

The GEPS has been consistently showing this system as well but yea we do need the EURO to verify

skyline385 · #574 Postby **skyline385** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:04 pm

This GFS fantasy cane is like Katrina in size coming into the Gulf lol.

aspen · #575 Postby **aspen** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:16 pm

12z GEFS has an increased number of strong members for an EPac system this weekend, and the cluster of Atlantic members has shifted to be over Central America, with some on either side. Seems like it’s shifting to an EPac scenario with greater Atlantic ridging.

#576 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:30 pm

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1534222548505853954

#577 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:41 pm

Safest place to live is where the GFS puts a hurricane in 360 hrs.

#578 Postby **jlauderdal** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:Safest place to live is where the GFS puts a hurricane in 360 hrs.

I would cut that down to 96 hours.

Cpv17 · #579 Postby **Cpv17** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:Safest place to live is where the GFS puts a hurricane in 360 hrs.

I mean the Euro half the time can’t even see genesis 3 days out so I wouldn’t call it “King Euro” anymore like you probably do. Isn't that your go to model?

skyline385 · #580 Postby **skyline385** » Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:09 pm

If i remember correctly the Euro had Laura as a TD/TS until she was literally in the Gulf. GFS is overturned for sure but it's better to have a bunch of fake storms instead of a model which misses storms left and right imo.

We can even go to as recent as Agatha and Alex, guess which model was the first to pick both of them up.