TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[southerngale]

Quandary does make some valid points.

The NHC will be the first to step up and say their intensification forecasts is sill one of the weak spots in forecasting.

Still many days to monitor a storm that is yet to even have a name...

Scott

I think many have written this season off and/or are in disbelief right now sharing your wistful thinking above. I think most don't even know what is going on right now in the W. Coast of FL.

BUT, unforunately we have a dire situation unfolding. People will wake up in a day or two when this thing is a T.S or Hurricane aiming at the Eastern GOM. I've already woken up.

I agree Chris. Many refuse to believe another disaster will unfold since we had Katrina and Rita. TD-24/Wilma does not know there was a Katrina or Rita.

That in itself is a problem though....

I woke up on a Wednesday morning with a bona fide category 5 hurricane forecasted to slam right between Matagorda Bay and Freeport. Despite the traffic issues, my entire area was evacuated in plenty of time. By Friday night when Rita was beginning to make landfall we had nothing more than 30mph winds. The models changed of course along with the final landfall, only two days out.

Now with this particular depression and only a depression, that is still possibly over a week from impacting any part of the CONUS, words such as "dire" "cat4" etc... are being thrown about.

Nothing wrong with being vigilant and prepared, but this is IMO very early in the game to begin a paranoia type of forecasting. Florida folk with the experiences over the last two years should have plenty of time to prepare and evacuate if needed, even those in TBay and areas that have been spared if the worst case scenarios does happen to play out.

Scott

Good post.

When I evacuated late Wednesday night/Thursday morning before Rita hit, it was forecast to hit closer to your area. By Thursday, the track was shifting closer to me and they issued a mandatory evacuation where I evacuated to. Everything closed and no gas so I was stuck there, and the eye tracked right over me. Quite an experience to say the least, but even a day or so before I left, it was supposed to hit South Texas, then just went right up the coast. Anyway....everyone DEFINITELY be prepared, but no telling where it will go yet. The models will likely flip around a lot. Hopefully it will be weak wherever it goes. *crosses fingers*

[Scorpion]

This depression is taking ALOT longer organizing than I thought. I will make a new forecast at 5 reflecting this, and the chances of this phasing are quite less than I thought before.

[fasterdisaster]

Everybody look at the floater:

There is a big blow up of convection right over the center, and TD24 is definitely better organized than say 3 hours ago.

[Ivanhater]

im not liking the models shifting left....good news is they will continue to shift back and forth

[boca]

looks more like a FL panhandle threat then a FL peninsula threat according to the models.

[Scorpion]

looks more like a FL panhandle threat then a FL peninsula threat according to the models.

I dont know what you are talking about. One run of the GFS takes it into the Big Bend. The Euro takes it right into the W FL coast. I have not seen the others, but they sure don't bring it to the panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

looks more like a FL panhandle threat then a FL peninsula threat according to the models.

right now it does, but then again it was a south florida threat yesterday...so im not to concerned at this point...actually i hope they shift all on the florida panhandle now, then most likely they will shift somewhere else

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I even expected it to be a freaking tropical storm by now.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I even expected it to be a freaking tropical storm by now.

\

I am afraid we will have wilma soon enough...

[Ivanhater]

I even expected it to be a freaking tropical storm by now.

matt dont you worry...nhc thinks rapid intensification is likely

[HurricaneQueen]

One problem S. Fl is facing now that was not present earlier in the summer-the snowbirds are back. Not only are they unaware and for the most part unprepared, they will be trying to evacuate too, potentially causing massive problems. It's no easy task to get out of S. Fl-only so many roads heading north and it's a very long state.

I have been struggling with the issue of possible evacuation since yesterday. We have to leave even if a Cat 1, as we are 1/4 mile from the Gulf in a villa that is far from well built. I have pretty much decided that a long distance evacuation is out of the question. I have a couple of back up places- a home that is well built, shuttered and further inland or a motel even further inland that accepts pets. The motel will have to be reserved soon so I'm hoping we get an idea of potential track sooner rather than later.

All of the above assumes that I will be unable to take a trip that has been long planned and much anticipated. Life sure throws curve balls! Hopefully, this one won't be over home plate.

Lynn

[artist]

Lynn - can't you make the reservations now and then cancel them if not needed?

[StormFury]

When Wilma forms a well defined center, the models will have a better grasp of the track. Until then, expect these shifts. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dramatic shift to the east if Wilma's center redefines itself to the east or north of its original location.

[Rainband]

I even expected it to be a freaking tropical storm by now.

Like we need another storm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All I wented for it to be named a 40 mph trpoical storm. Sorry if you think mean I went it to become a cat5.

[Florida_TSR]

The models are missing the strength of the trough. October hurricanes favor the keys and So. Florida.

[cjrciadt]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1001.5mb/ 47.0kt
current t numbers, both high on pressure and winds?

[Rainband]

The models are missing the strength of the trough. October hurricanes favor the keys and So. Florida.

Climatology went out the window this year. You can have it though.

[Ivanhater]

The models are missing the strength of the trough. October hurricanes favor the keys and So. Florida.

ya i agree....im not sure why they are missing the trough coming...at this point im thinking in or around the tampa area

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Recon just found a 1001 millibar pressure.