Wave WSW of CV Islands

[SFLcane]

Landfall in central florida... Looks like a frances/jeanne track

[boca]

It all depends on how fast the trough over the Carolinas and Georgia can lift out to ultimately predict its path at that point.

[cycloneye]

Almost same track as Bonnie?

[SFLcane]

This is going to be an interesting week or two to say the least.

[Sanibel]

I'd say that's 90L and didn't poof! Black IR and all. Looks like a go. (Oh boy )

[Vortex]

talk about a nearly identical run from 18Z...I think what for looking for is the continued consistency and were beginning to see this with the GFS as far as track..Intensity wise no reason this system won't have a chance to bomb out especially in the bahamas if not sooner with near ideal conditions...next up Nogaps, Cmc, then Euro..

[blp]

Yep, no kidding..... break out the coffee. Before I get too interested I would like to have it consolidate and then check the models.

This is going to be an interesting week or two to say the least.

[SFLcane]

Almost same track as Bonnie?

Based on the 12z EURO synoptic set up that would not surprise me.

[Recurve]

Long way out. At 180 hours it's sitting off the Bahamas. I will be hoping for a strong shortwave and enough weakness for it to get going NW. I'll go out on a limb and say ultimately we'll be thinking Carolinas threat but watching a strong storm approaching the Bahamas will sure make Florida nervous, if that happens. I don't see Central Florida ultimately happening, though it's surely possible.

Just a gut feeling and distrust of models after 180 hours. Personal opinion only, not a forecast, not a professional, etc.

[gatorcane]

talk about a nearly identical run from 18Z...I think what for looking for is the continued consistency and were beginning to see this with the GFS as far as trek..Intensity no reason this system won't have a chance to bomb out especially in the bahamas with near ideal conditions...next up Nogaps, Cmc, then Euro..

I guess its because the synoptic setup is fairly straightforward at least currently. Azores ridge builds in west in tandem with Colin. Colin moves WNW as it deepens gradually under this ridge. A trough over the Eastern CONUS lifts out by the time that Colin is near the Leewards and a Bermuda High ridge builds in steering it WNW. So Colin hitches a ride on that...a weak cool front then moves in a couple of days later as a weak shortwave moves across the Canadian Maritimes/New England area. Then ridging appears to build back in sending Colin W or WNW and a bit faster.

Of course still, this is all out past 7 days so its likely to change!

[Tropics Guy]

Can't believe this has not been reactivated as an invest (90L) or assigned a new invest 91L., looks better than ever, think that all systems are go with this disturbance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

TG

[Vortex]

W/WNW with ridging to the North and very favorable conditions aloft...look out should it ever find itself where GFS has it at +192


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[Sanibel]

Intensity wise no reason this system won't have a chance to bomb out especially in the bahamas if not sooner with near ideal conditions...next up Nogaps, Cmc, then Euro..

One look at that says GFDL verification...

[Recurve]

OK, look at the end of that GFS run. Crosses Florida, visits the pandhandle, BOUNCES BACK into the Atlantic. Hmm. Anyone in a betting mood?

[boca]

Yeah at 216hrs a Ft Pierce/Vero Beach hit alittle north of Jeanne/Frances hit.

[jaxfladude]

Here we go again, folks!

[cycloneye]

Can't believe this has not been reactivated as an invest (90L) or assigned a new invest 91L., looks better than ever, think that all systems are go with this disturbance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

TG

I thought the same, but I realize NHC has been waiting for one center to be the dominant one and I think that by later this morning, they will tag 90L again or add a new invest 91L.

[boca]

One thing that everyone including myself is forgetting that a low hasn't been initialized yet so once that happens well have a better idea on track.

[gatorcane]

Yeah at 216hrs a Ft Pierce/Vero Beach hit alittle north of Jeanne/Frances hit.

yeah but being in the medium-range the next run may show Miami or the Keys, or maybe even farther up the FL coast or even the Carolinas perhaps. Overall synoptic setup looks quite interesting indeed. I'm just happy it is still 8-9 out. I remember last year about this same time or a little sooner, GFS showed Bill slamming into Southern FL and it missed by a long shot.

[hurricaneCW]

It's starting to gain some shape and turning is becoming more evident. Looks like it's on its way toward development. I'll take what the models say with a grain of salt. Most models are very inaccurate when it comes to intensity and even the track can be off by a lot.