2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[NDG]

It will be interesting next year for the MDR, I got a feeling that how conditions turned around for the eastern MDR will be same for the rest of the MDR for next year, it could be a busy one if La Nina does indeed shows up by then

[Ntxw]

And a lot of the systems did not poof because of dry air this year or sinking air. Most of it was shear blowing their convection off, the strong centers kept fighting. If the shear relaxed we could've had very big systems. I think things are changing after this El Nino episode is over.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: And a lot of the systems did not poof because of dry air this year or sinking air. Most of it was shear blowing their convection off, the strong centers kept fighting. If the shear relaxed we could've had very big systems. I think things are changing after this El Nino episode is over.

That is one thing I've noticed this year was that after about mid-August, there has been significantly more moisture in the tropical Atlantic than we've seen in quite some time.

[Hurricaneman]

in december I'll start a 2016 version of this thread

on topic: the conditions have been aweful for tropical cyclone development other than in the Eastern Atlantic but if not for El Nino the Atlantic probably would have been on fire which is why next year will probably be above average and a year similar to 1998 can't be ruled out for 2016. Ill give more specifics as we near the end of the year

Also I expect maybe 2 more systems to develop before we call it a season and it may be in the Gulf or Western Atlantic as there is the real area to look at later in the season with an El Nino present

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[Ntxw]

There has been no Hurricanes in September of 2015, doesn't look like there will be one within the next week to round out the month. Cape Verde season is coming to a close. It doesn't look like we're going to get that big ACE producer as ACE currently stands at 28-29. A gulf or east coast cane doesn't produce a lot of ACE unless it is a sprawling cat 4/5 system that sits around.

[Steve]

in december I'll start a 2016 version of this thread

on topic: the conditions have been aweful for tropical cyclone development other than in the Eastern Atlantic but if not for El Nino the Atlantic probably would have been on fire which is why next year will probably be above average and a year similar to 1998 can't be ruled out for 2016. Ill give more specifics as we near the end of the year

Also I expect maybe 2 more systems to develop before we call it a season and it may be in the Gulf or Western Atlantic as there is the real area to look at later in the season with an El Nino present

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

1998 would certainly be considered an analog if things reverse as quickly and severely as they did after the 1997 El Nino. We went into a temporary drought here (was a hot summer) which was why Hurricane Georges (which hit 100 miles east of here) brought in 45-50mph winds and followed up the flooding from Tropical Storm Frances off of Brownsville by a couple weeks. Weakened tree limbs fell on power lines knocking out power all over the city even though we only got about a quarter inch of rain. If you look at the current prognostications, and I'm not saying they are right or wrong, it looks like we'll be in "Neutral" or there about conditions by summer. The link below still shows the bulk of the models showing + Neutral to slight El Nino by May/June/July. That seems like a reasonable solution from where we are now unless things reverse a lot quicker. I don't have a call either way.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... o/current/

[Ntxw]

I think we should dub 2015 the Year of the Shear. It has been an obscene season, naked swirls abound. Ida is the latest victim, but really you could plug in many names and it would look similar. Danny thus far has been the highlight of the season as a microcane.






Though it has been a cool experience to see the low level structures of such systems, which is often hard to see.

[Steve]

j.

[Hammy]

There has been no Hurricanes in September of 2015, doesn't look like there will be one within the next week to round out the month. Cape Verde season is coming to a close. It doesn't look like we're going to get that big ACE producer as ACE currently stands at 28-29. A gulf or east coast cane doesn't produce a lot of ACE unless it is a sprawling cat 4/5 system that sits around.

The way Joaquin's going we may squeak out a hurricane this month at the very last minute.

[chaser1]

There has been no Hurricanes in September of 2015, doesn't look like there will be one within the next week to round out the month. Cape Verde season is coming to a close. It doesn't look like we're going to get that big ACE producer as ACE currently stands at 28-29. A gulf or east coast cane doesn't produce a lot of ACE unless it is a sprawling cat 4/5 system that sits around.

The way Joaquin's going we may squeak out a hurricane this month at the very last minute.

It's beginning to really look like it may. Not sure the formula for how much ACE is achieved for a minimal Cat. 1 that lasts a couple days, but then again 2 days could become 3, and an unanticipated Cat. 1 could well evolve into a Cat 2 or 3. One thing for sure, these fairly tight and smaller systems do have the capacity to wind up all that much faster under the right conditions. Present SST's are the one factor that certainly aid toward that possibility.

[Extratropical94]

There has been no Hurricanes in September of 2015, doesn't look like there will be one within the next week to round out the month. Cape Verde season is coming to a close. It doesn't look like we're going to get that big ACE producer as ACE currently stands at 28-29. A gulf or east coast cane doesn't produce a lot of ACE unless it is a sprawling cat 4/5 system that sits around.

The way Joaquin's going we may squeak out a hurricane this month at the very last minute.

It's beginning to really look like it may. Not sure the formula for how much ACE is achieved for a minimal Cat. 1 that lasts a couple days, but then again 2 days could become 3, and an unanticipated Cat. 1 could well evolve into a Cat 2 or 3. One thing for sure, these fairly tight and smaller systems do have the capacity to wind up all that much faster under the right conditions. Present SST's are the one factor that certainly aid toward that possibility.

For a minimal hurricane, that would be 65kt squared and divided by 10,000 every 6 hours which would yield 0.4225 units per 6 hour interval or 1.69 units per day.

[Ntxw]

There has been no Hurricanes in September of 2015, doesn't look like there will be one within the next week to round out the month. Cape Verde season is coming to a close. It doesn't look like we're going to get that big ACE producer as ACE currently stands at 28-29. A gulf or east coast cane doesn't produce a lot of ACE unless it is a sprawling cat 4/5 system that sits around.

The way Joaquin's going we may squeak out a hurricane this month at the very last minute.

Lets see if it can do it, if it does indeed become a major at that point it can pull off 10-15 units of ACE given it's location. That would definitely give ACE units a boost into the 40+ range total

[Hammy]

There has been no Hurricanes in September of 2015, doesn't look like there will be one within the next week to round out the month. Cape Verde season is coming to a close. It doesn't look like we're going to get that big ACE producer as ACE currently stands at 28-29. A gulf or east coast cane doesn't produce a lot of ACE unless it is a sprawling cat 4/5 system that sits around.

The way Joaquin's going we may squeak out a hurricane this month at the very last minute.

Lets see if it can do it, if it does indeed become a major at that point it can pull off 10-15 units of ACE given it's location. That would definitely give ACE units a boost into the 40+ range total

I believe we've exceeded 2013's ACE at least, I calculated and we seem to be at roughly 36. 24 hours more of major would put the year at over 40.

[Alyono]

after Joaquin we may be over 50 units of ACE

[Steve]

after Joaquin we may be over 50 units of ACE

And we'll get at least another half point or point from 90L which is at like 80% for the next couple of days to become a TD/STD/TS/STS. When wxman57 was noting that we may be substantially below the 40 threshold (possibly by a lot); this was my one caution to that - an ACE mongering SW Atlantic Storm. I'd have to go back and look to see if I had a guess as to this year's ACE, but it seemed like it could be low or really low, but that low had a pretty good possibility. I still don't think the season's done even if 90L forms. I'm betting 1 or 2 named storms in October after 90L (regardless of what it does) which should mean we either get to K, L or M. That's probably double the average in the Storm 2 K early season guesses.

?

[Steve]

Correction. He used 50, not 40 when I responded in early July:

I agree with you on his numbers which could be double-high, but it's a tough call on the ACE. With the idea that the Western Atlantic (Bahamas and North of there) could harbor some potentially strong, slower moving systems, you could get one or more piling up ACE. I think the Atlantic record was 1899 with maybe slightly above 73? So theoretically, a 4 or a 5 could be in the Atlantic and be at least a Cat 1 for several days and change the dynamic of the ACE for the season. Same thing with a Fall Caribbean system were the El Nino to back off a little earlier or should there be an interruption in the winds down in the Western Caribbean or Southern Gulf. IMHO, ACE could be below 50 (perhaps by a good bit) or it could exceed by 20-30 points as well. Tough, tough call IMHO.

[Hurricaneman]

This season seems to give me chills for 2016 with a storm like Joaquin this year with less than ideal conditions we could have many storms like it in 2016 with better conditions

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

Thank God conditions were not conducive between July into the 3rd week of September in the western Atlantic basin, it would had been one heck of a busy period for the US.

[Ntxw]

Joaquin has added about 12 units so far, so it's going to end up a bit higher than my estimate of 10-15 units, perhaps 20 which is a pretty sizeable amount of ACE for a single storm. Agreed this should bring the season to near 50 which gets the ACE out of the bottom 10 season and more in line with your typical El Nino average. Currently ACE stands at 48% of normal.

[Hammy]

Joaquin, along with the strength of the waves during Aug/Sep, makes me wonder what this year would've been without El Nino.