2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Dylan]

All I have to say is when you look at the tropics globally they are really underperforming so far this year, this was also the case back in 2013.

At this point it's up to the Atlantic and East Pacific to make up for that deficit which I am now starting to have my doubts will happen after seeing the latest Euro MSLP outlook for ASO. Clearly there is likely something going on that we probably do not know about which is causing the tropics to struggle this year.

Even though the tropical activity is lacking on a global scale, the Atlantic Basin is probably the warmest of the Northern Hemisphere basins at this time. This means that the MJO will have a tendency to fester in the Atlantic Basin more often than not. In other words, if there is going to be an active Basin this season, it'll be the Atlantic, which currently has a classic +AMO signature. Furthermore, the SSTA profile isn't all that different from 2005, with the only major difference being the PDO signature.

[Hurricaneman]

Shows higher pressures in the EPAC MDR than in the Atlantic

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at things, the anomalies in the Atlantic are not that dissimilar to 2005 as Mark Sudduth has said in his videobut I just don't see this year being anywhere close to as busy

[Yellow Evan]

All I have to say is when you look at the tropics globally they are really underperforming so far this year, this was also the case back in 2013.

At this point it's up to the Atlantic and East Pacific to make up for that deficit which I am now starting to have my doubts will happen after seeing the latest Euro MSLP outlook for ASO. Clearly there is likely something going on that we probably do not know about which is causing the tropics to struggle this year.

Even though the tropical activity is lacking on a global scale, the Atlantic Basin is probably the warmest of the Northern Hemisphere basins at this time. This means that the MJO will have a tendency to fester in the Atlantic Basin more often than not. In other words, if there is going to be an active Basin this season, it'll be the Atlantic, which currently has a classic +AMO signature. Furthermore, the SSTA profile isn't all that different from 2005, with the only major difference being the PDO signature.

Warmest in general? no. Warmest anomalies? yes but keep in mind SOI.

[Dylan]

All I have to say is when you look at the tropics globally they are really underperforming so far this year, this was also the case back in 2013.

At this point it's up to the Atlantic and East Pacific to make up for that deficit which I am now starting to have my doubts will happen after seeing the latest Euro MSLP outlook for ASO. Clearly there is likely something going on that we probably do not know about which is causing the tropics to struggle this year.

Even though the tropical activity is lacking on a global scale, the Atlantic Basin is probably the warmest of the Northern Hemisphere basins at this time. This means that the MJO will have a tendency to fester in the Atlantic Basin more often than not. In other words, if there is going to be an active Basin this season, it'll be the Atlantic, which currently has a classic +AMO signature. Furthermore, the SSTA profile isn't all that different from 2005, with the only major difference being the PDO signature.

Warmest in general? no. Warmest anomalies? yes but keep in mind SOI.

Well I would assume you knew that I was speaking in terms of SSTA's. And what about the SOI? I understand that its negative at the moment. But its a good sign for the Atlantic Basin considering the models have significantly backed off on El Nino, with even the ECM showing more of a weak Modoki signature, which isn't necessarily a hinderance to activity in our basin.

[chaser1]

Over the most recent couple of years the overall accuracy by all of the global models with regard to the tropics, has been under a lot of scrutiny. Even now as we begin to move closer to potential near term tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico, the EURO was behind the CMC in 1st sniffing out possible development there. At the moment the EURO seems more aligned with climo with a possible T.D. or T.S. forming in the S. Gulf and generally pushing it westward well south of Brownsville TX. Curiously, the EURO has become an outlier in its forecast with other models trending toward a more poleward solution towards the N. Gulf coast. My entire point here is this. Before I'm about to buy stock in any one global models' late summer forecast indicating anomalously high surface pressures across the majority of all equatorial and tropical regions during a traditionally peak period of tropical cyclone activity and lower surface pressures..... I'm a bit more curious to see how well the EURO (and all other global models) handle and forcast the eventual evolution of the tropical disturbance anticipated to develop over the SW Caribbean, Yucatan, and Gulf of Mexico. Personally, I stopped holding my breath anticipating another El Nino a few months ago. Without some decent supporting logic to substantiate a forecasted nearly global (anomalous) rise in low latitude surface pressures, I'll focus my attention toward far more pressing concerns - like the recent increase in cost for the price of sushi perhaps

[Hammy]

Just to point out a strange oddity, the Atlantic in mid-June looks better than 2013 did in mid-August.

[gatorcane]

If this is only June, what is Aug-Oct going to bring?

[Hammy]

Interesting note is that five of the last six years will have had two storms before the end of June--the exception being 2014 which had none. If the Gulf system forms then this year will make the third year in that same time to have had three before July.

[TheStormExpert]

If the date wasn't present in this image below I wouldn't know any better than to think we are at or near the peak of the hurricane season. Can't believe it's only June 20th and we currently have not one but TWO named storms present at the same time in the Atlantic, along with yet another strong tropical wave emerging off the Western African coast! When was the last time such an occurrence happened in June? Hopefully this is not a precursor of what's to come.

[tolakram]

Not really an indicator but ...
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/877278863214075904




Only four prior years have had 3 named storms in Atlantic by June 20: 1887, 1959, 2012 and 2016.

1887 - 19/11/2 - no storms from mid June through mid July
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1887_Atla ... ane_season

1959 - 14/7/2 - 2 storms in July
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1959_Atla ... ane_season

2012 - 19/10/2 - no storms in July
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Atla ... ane_season

2016 - 16/7/4 - no storms in July
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Atla ... ane_season

[Steve820]

I wonder if climate change could be responsible for the recent streak of years with 3 named storms in the Atl by 6/20. Before 2012 the two occurrences (1887 and 1959) were very spread out. And seeing a MDR storm this early as well as Cindy being active at a similar time kind of freaks me out about what the rest of the season might look like (Aug to Oct especially)

[RL3AO]

GFS generally shows below average shear and trade winds in the MDR over the next couple of weeks (FWIW). Doesn't seem to like any of the waves in particular though. Maybe something to watch as we approach July.

[RL3AO]

I wonder if climate change could be responsible for the recent streak of years with 3 named storms in the Atl by 6/20. Before 2012 the two occurrences (1887 and 1959) were very spread out. And seeing a MDR storm this early as well as Cindy being active at a similar time kind of freaks me out about what the rest of the season might look like (Aug to Oct especially)

It's most likely observations that are leading to it. Storms like Arlene (2017) simply weren't caught in the pre-satellite era, and often weren't considered tropical storms before the 1990s/2000s. You could even argue a hurricane like Alex last year might not have been caught in a pre-satellite era. Any ship report of a hurricane in January would have likely been laughed at.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at things the ITCZ is still looking quite robust and wouldn't be surprised to see anothe system the next 15 days, the only one picking up a system is the GFS but you know how that goes but if we keep getting those big waves off of Africa it may not be that far fetched

[WeatherHoon]

Curious to see what that wave does that just emerged off of Africa and the next one that will soon follow. However, something tells me we're going to be in for a lull over the next few weeks.

[Kingarabian]

Unfavorable MJO phase for the next few weeks.

[RL3AO]

Unfavorable MJO phase for the next few weeks.

More like non-existent.

[chaser1]

Based on those charts and the absense of any larger scale influences, I'll be curious to see if we continue to see fairly high amplitute waves attempt to march across the Atlantic. Climo would generally suggest higher surface pressures and an increase of SAL. While models suggest a near term lull in tropical development, it shouldn't come as any surprise for MDR instability charts to continue to indicate normal to below normal instability values. Furthermore, history has shown us that an absense of tropical activity during this particilar time frame is NOT an indicator that an inactive hurricane season may end up playing out.

On the other hand there could well be subtle signs or even more obvious indicators that might tip us off that this season could very well prove to be very robust. One such indicator might be increased forecast confidence of continued (or an increase in) SST anomalies throughout the Atlantic MDR and W. Atlantic regions. Yet another, the possible cooling SST's over Eastern equatorial waters. Especially important would be indications of whether favorable or unfavorable upper level patterns or dry/moist air conditions in the low to mid levels, are seemingly becoming established through parts or much of the Atlantic basin.

The broader picture however, might just be whether we continue to see one or two area's within the Atlantic basin (eg: Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean?), that appear to be that "sweet spot" where conditions continue to appear favorable for cyclogenesis to occur (even in spite of climatology). Will strong tropical waves continue to emerge off the African coast and will some remain vigorous if even at low latitudes? Even if they don't, will we begin to see a pattern of those waves becoming sharper and more convective again as they approach 50W-60W, even while overall conditions throughout the tropics appear largely unfavorable for development over the next 4 weeks?

It's my personal guess that we'll see one or more tropical waves continue to become more convective and better organized as they either approach the Lessor Antilles or within the Caribbean. Regardless of any attaining Tropical depression status, I do think that one or more will at least make a run at it. Should this bear out during a several week period where overall basin conditions appear broadly unfavorable, during a period where Climo would suggest a lull in tropical activity, and while present global MJO and Kelvin waves appear neutral at best..... then that alone may be some clear signal of "what's in-store" for the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season to come.

[gatorcane]

Wow this is one warmer than normal Atlantic and MDR . But also note the warmer area in the subtropical Atlantic around Bermuda that seems to be have expanded east and warming. Levi Cowan did mention that area could be a wildcard and perhaps disrupt MDR activity across the MDR especially Western MDR (Caribbean Sea) but that is still a big question mark. Hard to believe we have a quiet MDR this year with this SST configuration, should be quite active maybe the most active we have seen in many years: