Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[tolakram]

I see the FV3 and Euro have generally the same solution now, a sloppy TS into the NE gulf coast. Twice now we've seen the GFS do better (at times) in this area as it seems to handle shear and center reformation better. I wonder if we will see this play out again?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1047811507109728256

[wxman57]

I see the FV3 and Euro have generally the same solution now, a sloppy TS into the NE gulf coast. Twice now we've seen the GFS do better (at times) in this area as it seems to handle shear and center reformation better. I wonder if we will see this play out again?

Yes, the GFS tends to do better in a higher shear environment, like what exists now in the Caribbean & Gulf. EC tends to overdevelop storms in higher shear, and drive them in the wrong direction. I'm not a fan of the "new" GFS. Seems to do a very poor job of predicting cyclogenesis (over-predicts). Oh, and there's the Cat 5 in the NW Gulf at hour 360 in last night's run...

[BobHarlem]

The 6Z FV3 shows a lopsided messy system moving into the north Gulf. (Then follows it up with a different cat 4 monster storm in the Gulf the following week out of seemingly nowhere.

[GCANE]

Starting to see some turning of the surface winds in the W Carib
Now coming out of the SE at the buoy SW of Jamaica

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1047828070412013571

[wxman57]

There's a little swirl just off the east coast of Honduras. GFS moves it inland and doesn't develop it. Euro takes it north and develops it. However, the Euro does not do well with systems impacted by shear. Something to keep an eye on, but there is no guarantee of development.

[ronjon]

I see the FV3 and Euro have generally the same solution now, a sloppy TS into the NE gulf coast. Twice now we've seen the GFS do better (at times) in this area as it seems to handle shear and center reformation better. I wonder if we will see this play out again?

Yes, the GFS tends to do better in a higher shear environment, like what exists now in the Caribbean & Gulf. EC tends to overdevelop storms in higher shear, and drive them in the wrong direction. I'm not a fan of the "new" GFS. Seems to do a very poor job of predicting cyclogenesis (over-predicts). Oh, and there's the Cat 5 in the NW Gulf at hour 360 in last night's run...

I'm sure the FV3 is overdoing the second predicted storm but you can't discount additional long range development given the expected long wave pattern (i.e. ridging over the SE and troughing over the west). Yes I know shear is a factor but difficult to forecast more than a few days out. That long wave pattern, if it holds into most of October would make cyclogenesis more likely than if we had a classic fall cold front patterm sweeping the GOM. Additionally, the 06z FV3 now aligns pretty well with most of the global models with its latest run (GFS clearly the outlier). And FV3 did do much better with Florence track than GFS - GFS had repeatly OTS or offshore predictions up until 2-3 days prior to landfall. I think FV3 has proven to be a better model than GFS and there seems to be greater long range consistency with the European.

[LarryWx]

Aric is looking pretty smart right now. Pretty much all members have genesis from the disturbance he has been tracking in the SW Caribbean not too far east of Central America. I counted an insane 13 of 51 members with a classic Oct FL H hit on the 0Z EPS, way more than any run yet! I saw 8 hitting 10/10-12, 3 on 10/14, and 2 hitting on 10/17.

[Frank P]

If it develops its a typical Oct setup with approaching front... faster it moves more towards the central gulf coast, slower it moves more towards the FL panhandle or FL west coast... same is true for the speed and strength of the front coming down... all about timing, seen it many times in the past a system heading right at the MS coast in October only to be shunted off to the NE by a front as it approaches the coast.. hopefully if it develops its nothing significant and we can wrap up the season after this system... ready for cold weather and snow tracking...

[stormlover2013]

Aric is looking pretty smart right now. Pretty much all members have genesis from the disturbance he has been tracking in the SW Caribbean not too far east of Central America. I counted an insane 13 of 51 members with a classic Oct FL H hit on the 0Z EPS, way more than any run yet! I saw 8 hitting 10/10-12, 3 on 10/14, and 2 hitting on 10/17.

Climatology this is a florida system but this has been a weird year lol...we need a dadgum center to get the ball rolling. I mean cold front should be coming soon but models have been really bad the last month with the fronts and keep delaying the fronts I mean heck we need a front to come through soon if not then Texas could be in for a surprise but we should be getting a front soon just have to see how it plays out.

[SFLcane]

Aric is looking pretty smart right now. Pretty much all members have genesis from the disturbance he has been tracking in the SW Caribbean not too far east of Central America. I counted an insane 13 of 51 members with a classic Oct FL H hit on the 0Z EPS, way more than any run yet! I saw 8 hitting 10/10-12, 3 on 10/14, and 2 hitting on 10/17.

Yep..

[toad strangler]

Aric is looking pretty smart right now. Pretty much all members have genesis from the disturbance he has been tracking in the SW Caribbean not too far east of Central America. I counted an insane 13 of 51 members with a classic Oct FL H hit on the 0Z EPS, way more than any run yet! I saw 8 hitting 10/10-12, 3 on 10/14, and 2 hitting on 10/17.

Jumpin Jehoshaphats Heavy E GOM signals there

[Ken711]

Aric is looking pretty smart right now. Pretty much all members have genesis from the disturbance he has been tracking in the SW Caribbean not too far east of Central America. I counted an insane 13 of 51 members with a classic Oct FL H hit on the 0Z EPS, way more than any run yet! I saw 8 hitting 10/10-12, 3 on 10/14, and 2 hitting on 10/17.

Yep..

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/04/low.png

That's a lot of FL hits.

[GCANE]

Maybe a surface low right under the overshooting top

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/JPKassell/status/1047824658433753088

[Stormcenter]

Those looking for a front, don’t hold your breath.
It could be awhile before we see one make into the Gulf.
Anyway Florida has such a large coastline that it is logical
to think they would be under the gun on this possible
development or any in Gulf. But this could easily go as far west as SW La. Climatology favors a Florida panhandle
landfall but as others have noted it has been a weird
season.

[SFLcane]

SFL i see you..

 https://twitter.com/DReillyWx/status/1047844172999380993

[Steve]

No call from me, but referencing the 2002 similarities in October, you have Lili and Isidore from that year though a bit earlier in the season (Isidore hit late September, Lili first couple of days of October). So we'll be about a week later than Lili which would generally suggest climatology would adjust slightly east.

Of the major globals, CMC has been fairly consistent and reasonable about the pattern and evolution vs. some of the usually better globals. It has adjusted a couple hundred miles east since Monday but still has a nice TS/low end 1 coming up in the NC/NE Gulf. Bastardi from his daily update today thinks that it's going to run the western side of the range, but he's still waiting for a center to see what happens as to whether or not it can become a hurricane. Here's the "stand he's taking." (note, I watched the rest of the video after posting this, and he references the 2002 season, Lili and Isidore).

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1047852296598638593