2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[captainbarbossa19]

If i remember correctly the Euro had Laura as a TD/TS until she was literally in the Gulf. GFS is overturned for sure but it's better to have a bunch of fake storms instead of a model which misses storms left and right imo.

We can even go to as recent as Agatha and Alex, guess which model was the first to pick both of them up.

You are right. The Euro did not do well with Laura. It kept trying to dissipate it/keep it very weak and that just did not happen. I want to see more examples this year of storm formation to know which model handles cyclogenesis better. Every year is different so I will not dismiss the Euro. At the same time, I will not dismiss the GFS yet, but I doubt if anything forms it will be anywhere close to the intensity shown on the GFS.

[skyline385]

Pretty closely cluttered 12Z GEFS

[OuterBanker]

Safest place to live is where the GFS puts a hurricane in 360 hrs.

The GFS produces more Phantoms in 360 than Adrew Lloyd Webber.

[Kingarabian]

While the Euro can be late in detecting TCG it's usually (eventually) right on intensity and track. So as usual, early on, always best to take both model solutions and find the middle ground.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z EPS has EPAC development first, then some members develop something in the WCarib later on in the run before eventually pulling it NW into the Gulf/Bay of Campeche.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Hours 210-324

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/RZHRpd3.gif
06z GFS... Hours 210-324

Most models are keeping everything in the Pacific.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/RZHRpd3.gif
06z GFS... Hours 210-324

Most models are keeping everything in the Pacific.

The ensembles show a wider variety of solutions. The EPS is weak but seems to be EPac-favored like the operational Euro, while the GEPS vastly favors the Atlantic. The GEFS is mixed, with multiple strong members on either side of Central America during the 5-8 day time frame. Both the CMC and GFS seem to try and produce a weak slop storm out of the CAG either in the WCar or western Gulf as well as an EPac storm next week.

While a Pacific storm is the most supported solution, there’s also a decent chance of the CAG producing an Atlantic storm too.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1534528007033040897

[skyline385]

:Can:


https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1534528007033040897?s=20&t=TqvZSWgIBTZ61bZBhKw81A

I mean the bigger question is, what does he expect from a dynamical model 250+ hours out. None of the other models even goes this far out so it's not like the GFS is doing it worse compared to others.

 https://twitter.com/spacecitywx/status/1534523672353984512




This is becoming a real problem lately unfortunately as well.

[wxman57]

We need to start a poll: Where will landfall of the Gulf hurricane be on the next GFS run? Closest wins. My guess is Tampico for the 12Z run.

[tolakram]

Hasn't hit New Orleans yet, that's my vote.

[InfernoFlameCat]

940mb run into Deep South Texas.

[SFLcane]

We need to start a poll: Where will landfall of the Gulf hurricane be on the next GFS run? Closest wins. My guess is Tampico for the 12Z run.

Hi Wxman57, Kinda off topic from this thread but have you updated your landfall areas highest at risk during August-September for June? Interested in seeing. You have Florida highlighted in your last update

[OuterBanker]

Here we go again. Look out Naples.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0806&fh=12

Of course the next run might be Naples Italy.

[Category5Kaiju]

Here we go again. Look out Naples.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0806&fh=12

Of course the next run might be Naples Italy.

Category 5 Hurricane Vesuvius

[aspen]

Looks like it’s a more realistic broad, weak CAG storm this run.

[wxman57]

We need to start a poll: Where will landfall of the Gulf hurricane be on the next GFS run? Closest wins. My guess is Tampico for the 12Z run.

Hi Wxman57, Kinda off topic from this thread but have you updated your landfall areas highest at risk during August-September for June? Interested in seeing. You have Florida highlighted in your last update

Sorry, no changes to our forecast from early May. Florida is DEFINITELY under-the-gun this year, as is the SE and E U.S. Coast. I'm particularly concerned about the eastern Caribbean islands (Luis). MDR may be favorable for long-tracked stronger hurricanes into the islands.

[SFLcane]

We need to start a poll: Where will landfall of the Gulf hurricane be on the next GFS run? Closest wins. My guess is Tampico for the 12Z run.

Hi Wxman57, Kinda off topic from this thread but have you updated your landfall areas highest at risk during August-September for June? Interested in seeing. You have Florida highlighted in your last update

Sorry, no changes to our forecast from early May. Florida is DEFINITELY under-the-gun this year, as is the SE and E U.S. Coast. I'm particularly concerned about the eastern Caribbean islands (Luis). MDR may be favorable for long-tracked stronger hurricanes into the islands.

Thanks 57! You heard it here folks. Florida

[skyline385]

Hasn't hit New Orleans yet, that's my vote.

You almost got your NOLA landfall this run

EDIT: scratch that, took a hard left