ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[weatherwindow]

Per CSU(unfortunately no link), the active or +positve phase of the AMO has disportionately fewer Ninos than the -phase of the cycle. La Nina or neutral conditions tend to predominate. Referenced from a forecast discussion several years ago....Grtz from KW, Rich

That's really because +PDO is associated with -AMO in the time period for which we have records for.

Was unaware of that relationship...how far back are PDO numbers available?....fairly reliable records/proxies for AMO cycles are available back to the mid 18th century and, I believe ENSO cycles can be approximated to the mid 19th century?....would be interesting to try to match these three variables up, would it not ...Rich

[Yellow Evan]

Per CSU(unfortunately no link), the active or +positve phase of the AMO has disportionately fewer Ninos than the -phase of the cycle. La Nina or neutral conditions tend to predominate. Referenced from a forecast discussion several years ago....Grtz from KW, Rich

That's really because +PDO is associated with -AMO in the time period for which we have records for.

Was unaware of that relationship...how far back are PDO numbers available?....fairly reliable records/proxies for AMO cycles are available back to the mid 18th century and, I believe ENSO cycles can be approximated to the mid 19th century?....would be interesting to try to match these three variables up, would it not ...Rich

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/ ... ld2005.txt

PDO monthly can go back to 1900, and yearly to 993.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CFSv2 showing the strongest El Niño event on record, with an ONI of +2.6C, higher than 1997's peak value of +2.4C

[cycloneye]

+1.0C at CPC Monday weekly update?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

+1.0C at CPC Monday weekly update?

Very likely, maybe even 1.1C

[Dean_175]

CFSv2 showing the strongest El Niño event on record, with an ONI of +2.6C, higher than 1997's peak value of +2.4C

Is this the PDF corrected CFS? Where do I find that? It isn't listed on the CPC's page for the CFS- which only includes the "raw" model runs.

Would be a really interesting year if this was right!

[Kingarabian]

+1.0C at CPC Monday weekly update?

I would assume...

Can't be too sure.

Remember how last year the graphics and the data available to users would depict one thing, but the CPC ends up showing something different?

[Ntxw]

It could stay at 0.9C or 1C. Not too much of a difference either or as it's held steady much of this week.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

+1.0C at CPC Monday weekly update?

I would assume...

Can't be too sure.

Remember how last year the graphics and the data available to users would depict one thing, but the CPC ends up showing something different?

That is not the case this year

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like +1C for this update

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Daily SST anomalies:

Niño 4=+1.4ºC
Niño 3.4=+1.0ºC
Niño 3=+1.2ºC
Niño1+2=+1.5ºC

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2014 Kelvin Wave logic: As it surfaces it's going to shrink.



2015? Easy. As it surfaces it grows.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Anomalies for this week, will later be official. CPC will declare Moderate Niño and BOM will declare Niño tomorrow

First +1C anomaly for the year

Niño 4=+1.3ºC
Niño 3.4=+1.0ºC
Niño 3=+1.0ºC
Niño1+2=+1.5ºC

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Several places now over the country are running out of water, crops are not faring well and provinces declared state of calamity.

[cycloneye]

Anomalies for this week, will later be official. CPC will declare Moderate Niño and BOM will declare Niño tomorrow

First +1C anomaly for the year

Niño 4=+1.3ºC
Niño 3.4=+1.0ºC
Niño 3=+1.0ºC
Niño1+2=+1.5ºC

To clarify,CPC in the weekly updates don't do declarations.The monthly ones are when they do the big discussions and analysis.The next montly one will be on May 14.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Anomalies for this week, will later be official. CPC will declare Moderate Niño and BOM will declare Niño tomorrow

First +1C anomaly for the year

Niño 4=+1.3ºC
Niño 3.4=+1.0ºC
Niño 3=+1.0ºC
Niño1+2=+1.5ºC

To clarify,CPC in the weekly updates don't do declarations.The monthly ones are when they do the big discussions and analysis.The next montly one will be on May 14.

2009 did it on the final week of October

It will be a declaration

[Ntxw]

1C in an April weekly update is impressive. Even 1997 did not achieve that until the last week of May.

[cycloneye]

The text of the CPC weekly update says important things about the winds and subsurface warm pool.ONI is at +0.5C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

WWB coming next week. Warm pool is going to expand out west.

[curtadams]

Why is there a discrepancy between the subsurface anomaly and the official SST anomalies? By that subsurface anomaly graph, temps are at about 2 degrees in most of the East Pacific, some areas are at 3, and the most intense warming at the surface is to the east. Official SSTs are substantially less, and the peak is on the west side of the Nino evaluation area. Does the warming fall off that much at the surface? And why the difference in gradients?