Small disturbance with a circulation just east of St Lucia

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Gustywind
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#61 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 02, 2008 1:19 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED V-STRUCTURE. A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS JUST EAST OF BARBADOS. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS
MAINLY CONFINED TO ITS W SIDE SHEARED BY UPPER ELY FLOW FROM
12N-13N BETWEEN 56W-59W.
:wink:
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Re: Small disturbance with a circulation just east of Windwards

#62 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 02, 2008 1:43 pm

Still looking good this afternoon.

Image
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#63 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 02, 2008 1:48 pm

Yep its still got a good circulation but looks a little more linear then it did before despite still being obviously convectivly active.
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#64 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:02 pm

hmm. That image you posted cycloneye does actually make this look pretty interesting. It will have a lot of shear to contend with though once it gets further west, so I am really not too concerned about it right now. If it can hold on past the shear though, then it may be something to watch a little more closely down the line.
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#65 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:06 pm

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jul 02, 2008 - 03:00 PM EDTJul 02, 2008 - 02:00 PM CDTJul 02, 2008 - 01:00 PM MDTJul 02, 2008 - 12:00 PM PDTJul 02, 2008 - 11:00 AM ADTJul 02, 2008 - 10:00 AM HDT
2008.07.02 1900 UTC
Wind from the S (190 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Showers in the vicinity
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 78 F (26 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob TBPB 021900Z 19008KT 8000 VCSH FEW008CB SCT010 BKN036 28/26 Q1013

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 3 PM (19) Jul 02 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) S 9 showers in the vicinity
2 PM (18) Jul 02 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) SSE 7 showers in the vicinity
1 PM (17) Jul 02 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) E 7 showers in the vicinity
Noon (16) Jul 02 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.94 (1014) E 10 showers in the vicinity
11 AM (15) Jul 02 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.97 (1015) NE 10 light rain; showers in the vicinity
10 AM (14) Jul 02 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) E 21 rain showers
9 AM (13) Jul 02 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.97 (1015) E 14
8 AM (12) Jul 02 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) NE 6 light
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#66 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:15 pm

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
There is some kind of low extending to the surface.
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Re: Small disturbance with a circulation just east of Windwards

#67 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:18 pm

Oh there is the wall to its west.Lets see when they clash what happens!

Image
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#68 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:21 pm

Yep you can really see the high shear just waiting to blast all the convection away. It does look like being a fairly active wave still however and so we will still likely see a lot of convection develop in the Caribbean sea but not likely to do anything.
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#69 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:22 pm

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Here is our tiny system, convection trying to pop?:roll:
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#70 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:26 pm

Also you can really nicely see the circulation, esp on the southern side where the convection isn't nearly as noteable as it is further north and west. I wonder whether the convection there is starting to be enhanced breifly by the shear?
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#71 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:31 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Olympic Shear games :roll: 20 to 30 kts of shear from s/w
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Ed Mahmoud

Re:

#72 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:33 pm

RL3AO wrote::uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
There is some kind of low extending to the surface.



I don't know, passing near/North of Barbados, I would have expected a Westerly component in the obs before they went to the South.
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Re: Small disturbance with a circulation just east of St Lucia

#73 Postby HUC » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:39 pm

Pretthttp://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ra ... m_vis.html

Pretty nice system,you can see the convective activity wrapping over Martinica.
Apparently,Gusty,it look's like a wind rotation concerned Barbados...
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Re: Small disturbance with a circulation just east of St Lucia

#74 Postby HUC » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:41 pm

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/r ... saique.gif
Radar Antillies
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Re: Small disturbance with a circulation just east of St Lucia

#75 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:42 pm

Saint Lucia weather obs:

2008.07.02 1830 UTC
Wind from the NNE (030 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Rain showers
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TLPL 021830Z 03014KT 9999 SHRA SCT014 BKN045 BKN260 27/24 Q1014

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Small disturbance with a circulation just east of St Lucia

#76 Postby HUC » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:47 pm

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/r ... 193000.png

AN OTHER RADAR IMAGE .Cycloneye,St Lucia confirm some wind change,although,ther is apparently no circulation!!!
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Re: Small disturbance with a circulation just east of St Lucia

#77 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:52 pm

HUC wrote:Pretthttp://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RMTC_BAR_2km_vis.html

Pretty nice system,you can see the convective activity wrapping over Martinica.
Apparently,Gusty,it look's like a wind rotation concerned Barbados...


Yeah absolutely winds are verring a bit :) that's why i post that , but after that i was busy and now came on line Huc, and that's it :wink:
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Re: Small disturbance with a circulation just east of St Lucia

#78 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:54 pm

I was looking at obs from St Vincent,the grenadines and Barbados and didnt found any west winds.
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Re: Small disturbance with a circulation just east of St Lucia

#79 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:57 pm

HUC wrote:Pretthttp://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RMTC_BAR_2km_vis.html

Pretty nice system,you can see the convective activity wrapping over Martinica.
Apparently,Gusty,it look's like a wind rotation concerned Barbados...


Its not a bad looking system as you say HUC and in some ways its a good job that it will run into some high shear because given the way the system has developed convection it could have become a real player in the Caribbean.
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Re: Small disturbance with a circulation just east of St Lucia

#80 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 02, 2008 3:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:I was looking at obs from St Vincent,the grenadines and Barbados and didnt found any west winds.

Yeah Cycloneye me too i put the obs for everbody but no west winds :spam:

Current Weather Conditions:
Hewanorra International Airport, Saint Lucia
(TLPL) 13-45N 060-57W 10M
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jul 02, 2008 - 02:30 PM EDTJul 02, 2008 - 01:30 PM CDTJul 02, 2008 - 12:30 PM MDTJul 02, 2008 - 11:30 AM PDTJul 02, 2008 - 10:30 AM ADTJul 02, 2008 - 09:30 AM HDT
2008.07.02 1830 UTC
Wind from the NNE (030 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Rain showers
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TLPL 021830Z 03014KT 9999 SHRA SCT014 BKN045 BKN260 27/24 Q1014

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 2 PM (18) Jul 02 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NNE 16 rain showers
1 PM (17) Jul 02 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ENE 23
Noon (16) Jul 02 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ENE 20
11 AM (15) Jul 02 80 (27) 77 (25) 30.00 (1016) ENE 18



Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jul 02, 2008 - 03:00 PM EDTJul 02, 2008 - 02:00 PM CDTJul 02, 2008 - 01:00 PM MDTJul 02, 2008 - 12:00 PM PDTJul 02, 2008 - 11:00 AM ADTJul 02, 2008 - 10:00 AM HDT
2008.07.02 1900 UTC
Wind from the S (190 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Showers in the vicinity
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 78 F (26 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob TBPB 021900Z 19008KT 8000 VCSH FEW008CB SCT010 BKN036 28/26 Q1013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 3 PM (19) Jul 02 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) S 9 showers in the vicinity
2 PM (18) Jul 02 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) SSE 7 showers in the vicinity
1 PM (17) Jul 02 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) E 7 showers in the vicinity
Noon (16) Jul 02 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.94 (1014) E 10 showers in the vicinity

Current Weather Conditions:
Point Salines Airport, Grenada
(TGPY) 12-00N 061-47W 7M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jul 02, 2008 - 03:00 PM EDTJul 02, 2008 - 02:00 PM CDTJul 02, 2008 - 01:00 PM MDTJul 02, 2008 - 12:00 PM PDTJul 02, 2008 - 11:00 AM ADTJul 02, 2008 - 10:00 AM HDT
2008.07.02 1900 UTC
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT)
Visibility 5 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 78 F (26 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob TGPY 021900Z 12011KT 9000 FEW014CB SCT018 29/26 Q1013 JP-NE CB-NE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 3 PM (19) Jul 02 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) ESE 13
2 PM (18) Jul 02 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) ESE 15
1 PM (17) Jul 02 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.94 (1014) ESE 16


Current Weather Conditions:
Le Lamentin, Martinique
(TFFF) 14-36N 061-00W 7M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jul 02, 2008 - 03:11 PM EDTJul 02, 2008 - 02:11 PM CDTJul 02, 2008 - 01:11 PM MDTJul 02, 2008 - 12:11 PM PDTJul 02, 2008 - 11:11 AM ADTJul 02, 2008 - 10:11 AM HDT
2008.07.02 1911 UTC
Wind from the ENE (070 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Thunder in the vicinity
Showers in the vicinity
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TFFF 021911Z 07013KT 040V100 6000 VCTS VCSH FEW013CB BKN016 BKN040 27/24 Q1014 TEMPO 3000 TSRA RMK M8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 3 PM (19) Jul 02 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 15 thunder in the vicinity; showers in the vicinity
2 PM (18) Jul 02 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) ENE 15
1 PM (17) Jul 02 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.97 (1015) ENE 16
Noon (16) Jul 02 78 (26) 77 (25) 30.00 (1016) Variable 2 showers in the vicinity
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