Perturbed Area over Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 93L)

[gatorcane]

Yeah I am with Hurakan -- if convection can persist for about 24 hours more or so --- maybe something it trying to get going...

otherwise it wouldn't surprise me if the whole area collapses within the next 24 hours.

[HURAKAN]

This is why the impressive area of convection has develop. It has a great divergence an the upper levels.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Convection expanding in spite of the lack of real organization the last wave with this toon of convectin was on the end of July in Guadeloupe, if i'm not wrong.... .
Whereas some carib islanders have some infos about this perturbed area, wind seems strong like this one in Antigua:
- Updates from the Islands -http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml
- - Antigua - -
- clearing up after all
From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 07:17:15 -0700 (PDT)

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 07:50:51 -0400 - Exploding Blob! ... from stormcarib.com
Good morning!

While Texas, Louisiana, and the Caribbean nations struggle to cope with the trail of destruction left by Hurricane Ike, the Atlantic Basis is quiet for now. Anew wave passed off the coast of Africa but at the moment doesn't seem too impressive. There are a few more on the continent itself that are impressive and bear monitoring down the road. What is also impressive is the "exploding blob" off to the immediate east of the Windwards. If that upper level trough (or TUTT) hadn't been in the position it is, stretched over Puerto Rico and into the Central Caribbean, we very well could have had our next storm. The trough is expected to lift to the north after the weekend which means, combined with the approaching tropical wave, more wet and active weather here in the Eastern Caribbean. The TUTT's southwest flow, other than providing shearing protection, is bringing up more warm moisture from the equatorial zone further adding to the destabilization of the atmosphere. The local weather forecast says 60% today. I think it's more in the range of 100%, especially after noon and this evening. I know more than a few visitors who aren't very happy with that but our cisterns are!

[Gustywind]

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml
Antigua's report
Antigua - -
- clearing up after all
From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 07:17:15 -0700 (PDT)

no rain in over an hour and the winds have gone light again. According to the news the Met office here recorded a peak wind gust of just over 50 knots with sustained 40 several times through the night. Today at 8 am we had 40 knots once again. Now not more than about 15 knots. Radar and sat maps show the rain moved south.
eli

[cycloneye]

Martinique radar:

[expat2carib]

Now constant moderate rain and less gray dark. It started getting windy here as well now.

[jlauderdal]

medium interest by the polars, wait till you see what i have ready for greater interest

[Gustywind]

Now constant moderate rain and less gray dark. It started getting windy here as well now.

Ok tkanks my friend same weather well resumed . Here is the latest weather conditions in Guadeloupe:
Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M

Conditions at Sep 18, 2008 - 11:00 AM EDTSep 18, 2008 - 2008.09.18 1500 UTC
Wind from the SE (130 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 KT)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob TFFR 181500Z 13013KT R11///// FEW013 SCT016 BKN090 25/23 Q1012 RERA TEMPO 6000 SHRA

24 Hour Summary
Latest 11 AM (15) Sep 18 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) SE 15
10 AM (14) Sep 18 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) ESE 14
9 AM (13) Sep 18 73 (23) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) SE 7 light rain with thunder
8 AM (12) Sep 18 73 (23) 71 (22) 29.97 (1015) NNE 9 light rain with thunder
7 AM (11) Sep 18 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) NNE 7 light rain with thunder
6 AM (10) Sep 18 73 (23) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) NNE 13 light rain
5 AM (9) Sep 18 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) N 7
4 AM (8) Sep 18 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) NNW 6 light rain with thunder
3 AM (7) Sep 18 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) ENE 15 light rain showers
2 AM (6) Sep 18 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) Calm
1 AM (5) Sep 18 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) Calm

[Sanibel]

Bell clanging convection and persistence in prime season formation area. If this poofs I'll be shocked.

[expat2carib]

Jeff Masters gives this one a chance on saturday.

Posted by: Jeff Masters, 10:37 AM EDT on September 18, 2008

Well, it's now day four of my promised 7-10 day lull in Atlantic hurricane activity. That prediction still looks reasonable. Heavy thunderstorm activity has begun to increase over the Lesser Antilles Islands, where a tropical wave is interacting with an upper-level low pressure system. This tropical wave is moving westwards at about 15 mph, and has an impressive surge of moisture with it, as seen on animations of total precipitable water from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. The region is under about 10-20 knots of wind shear, and probably won't be able to organize much today or Friday due to the shear and presence of the upper-level low pressure system. By Saturday, wind shear is expected to drop over the entire Caribbean, and the upper level wind flow becomes more anticyclonic. These are favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development, and we may have something develop by Sunday in the central or western Caribbean. The NOGAPS is the only major model predicting something will develop. However, most of the models are forecasting the development of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa early next week. I expect we will have Tropical Storm Kyle, either in the Caribbean or off the coast of Africa, by the middle of next week.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1089&tstamp=200809

[HURAKAN]

A new tropical wave has been introduced at 12Z over the Lesser Antilles. Now the story is different since there is something at the surface. Nonetheless, conditions shouldn't be favorable for development until the TUTT decides to leave.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like convection is starting to wave. Surprise, surprise!

[CrazyC83]

With the code yellow, I wouldn't be surprised to see this become 93L in the next little while.

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Orange alert is maintained for Guadeloupe, seems that convective activity has diminished a bit this morning since 10am, but Meteo France tkink that tonight convective activity can surely refire at any time added to gustywinds near 35kts, so let's wait and see what will happen during the next couple of hours. In my location things have calm down, numerous clouds but no rain, wind...

[gatorcane]

If this shear tendency map is correct, looks like shear from the TUTT is on the decrease....which could allow this area to gradually develop. BTW where is everybody? it's not Nov. 18th out there folks, its still prime-time in September. I think Ike, Hanna, and Gustav have worn us out.

I'm going to retract previous thoughts on this area and say it may be code orange or more within the next couple of days.



I'm not sure I can see this area just going poof anymore. Looks highly suspicious to me

[cycloneye]

889
ABNT20 KNHC 181758
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE AS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS BASED ON A
LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOP ALONG 62W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO
THE E IS GREATLY ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 57W-64W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

[Sanibel]

Weakening. See if it refires tonight.

[cycloneye]