Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[Vortex]

apologies that was the 18z gfs.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z NAM suddenly shows much less interest any any kind of consolidated low -- it does bring some rain/showers to Florida but by 84 hours it looks like it goes POOF.

Could this be a trend with the rest of the 18Z and 00Z model runs?

[Vortex]

I'll place my bets on the gfs/ec. Nam will come around. I think this will be a significant rain event with the potential for strong storms given the liklihood of cold air aloft for southern florida. Localized 4-8" of rainfall is certainly not out of the question.

[NDG]

There is a very distinct cyclonic twist that you can see there near the Northeastern Coast of Cuba and it seems to becoming more distinct with time.

I see a cyclonic rotation but in the upper levels, I do not see a closed surface circulation, but a distinct surface trough axis.

[gatorcane]

Key West discussion snippet, they think it will be an Upper-Level Low and nothing tropical.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MODELS HAVE QUITE A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS IN THE FORECAST BUT SINCE
THE GFS HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT HAVE OPTED FOR THIS SOLUTION. WITH
THIS IN MIND THE UPPER LOW IN THE TRADES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TAIL OF
THE CONUS TROUGH. AS THIS LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IT WILL BE
BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE FOLLOWING THE CONUS TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS KEEPS THE SERVICE AREA IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
MONDAY. THEREAFTER POPS WILL BE MORE ALONG CLIMATOLOGY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... KEY&max=51

[brunota2003]

I'm not sure I see any twist at all in that sat loop. All the low level clouds are heading west, then the storms jump south/east, giving the appearance that there may be a rotation, but it doesnt seem like it is anything more than a trick of the eye.

[NDG]

ULL clearly seen on WV loop

[cycloneye]

It doesnt look like low level circulation by Cuban radar.

Note=Radar not of high quality.

[brunota2003]

Yeah, I see the ULL on wv, the winds points only have the circulation in the Upper levels though, not even in the mid.

[Vortex]

18z rolling in

H+102 if this scenario verifies this will be quite a significant rain event especially coastal se florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

[Vortex]

GFS 18Z H+114

look out SFL rainwise!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[Vortex]

18Z GFS H+120

That tongue of intense rain indicated at H-120 into SE fl would drop 5-10" over a 24 hour period no problem!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS showing after a stall near the keys, moving NW and W in the Gulf

[CronkPSU]

WESH 2 in Orlando was hyping this up as potential big rain maker for early next week...newschannel 13 has started monitoring it as well

[wxman57]

I don't see anything down there now - upper level or lower level. I think some of you are imagining a circulation. Upper air analysis maps show nothing. There is a weak upper-level trof axis across the Bahamas extending to eastern Cuba, but that's it. We're not looking for anything to spin up until Monday at the earliest. And if you look at the latest GFS and EC, you'll see some considerable cold air advection across the eastern Gulf and off the southeast U.S. Coast early next week. This is certainly looking like a frontal cold-core system at least to start out with. And if it has limited time over water, then chances of anything tropical are quite low. Could be a rain maker for Florida north to Georgia next Thu/Fri.

[Vortex]

wxman,
I always respect your opnion. Do you think this will be a flood event in the general sense for SE Florida?

[Cookie]

looks something to keep an eye on thanks for the updates guys

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Lot's of storms firing over Cuba in association with Upper
Level Trough.

[NDG]

Might be a surprise to many, the circulation is in the mid levels or at least strongest in the mid levels, the higher in the atmosphere the more of a UL trough axis it resembles:

[gatorcane]

NDG not a surprise at all, there was a clear cyclonic rotation (albeit not at the low levels) evident on vis imagery earlier today. So that evidence above makes perfect sense.

I am not quite sure how some people could not see the rotation at the mid-levels. It's likely they were using IR imagery or were focusing too much on the lower-levels. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if we still see the rotation or not.

At any rate, whether there is cyclonic turning or not really does not matter at this point, if this even develops it wouldn't be until about 4-5 days from now. It's likely going to stay unorganized but I do feel it continues to provide a possibility of significantly increased rain chances much above CLIMO for parts of Florida next week.

I also feel the chances of it becoming a tropical storm or more do remain very low, probably around 5% at this point. An elongated trough with a plume of moisture/showers/thunderstorms up into the EGOM, FL, or Bahamas out ahead of a SW to NE oriented trough is more likely -- but hey its only mid May